Game Theory and Pakistan

sadna #38: ``They(and the Pakistani people by association) are already exerting a lot of choice in which Kashmiris deserve to live and which to die.

The Pakistani state rewards political disaffection/alienation with death or dire punishment. The Indian state by contrast has more sensitivity to political disaffection and has on many occasions accomodated it.``

Pakistan has openly stated that it has no territorial ambitions over Kashmir. It wants the Kashmiris to decide for themselves. If India makes a similar statement, the whole problem will be over.

The Indian state perhaps has some sensitivity to political disaffection, but the Indian state also seems to have different rules for Indian Kashmir and the rest of India. The actions of the Indian state in Kashmir, supported and encouraged by the average Indian, are far from sensitive. It is a well-accpeted fact that Kashmir has the highest ratio of soldiers to civilians in the world. It also has, on the average, the most yearly killings of civilians in the world. I would not call that sensitivity.

Take Pakistan completely out of the picture for a moment. Assume that whatever Pakistan has been doing is incorrect. Now what should be the humane solution to the problems of Kashmiris. Should it be a solution that you want for them, or should it be a solution that they want for themselves.

If you think that Pakistan is the main cause of the problem, then why not hold a vote of only the local Kashmiris, and get the whole problem over with. Pakistan will be exposed, and what you say will prove correct? If the vote is held by a neutral organization, then the infiltrators from Pakistan will not be allowed to vote, and we will know the actual feelings of the local Kashmiris. Yet India is unwilling to do that. The whole Indian stand on Kashmir is self-contradictory and illogical. Either hold a vote and accept the result, or don`t blame Pakistan for being the main cause of the Kashmir problem. Blame India`s own actions. And most of all admit to the fact that India is forcing Kashmiris to live with India against their own free will.

Do you accept the fact that India is forcing the Kashmiris to live with India against their free will? Do you accept the fact that if a vote was held in Kashmir today, the Kashmiris would definitely vote against India? If your answer to the above two questions is, ``No.`` then you should support an immediate vote to expose Pakistan. If your answer to the above two questions is, ``Yes,`` then by not supporting an independent Kashmir, you are forcing your will on other human beings.

I would have much more respect for an Indian who had the courage to state the above truthfully, (i.e. India is forcing the Kashmiris to stay with India against their will), and if the Kashmiris and Pakistanis do not like it, tough luck. The people whom I have no respect are the ones who are unwilling to even admit that India is holding onto Kashmir through human rights vioations, and against the will of the locals. These people are in a state of denial, and will always attempt to find outside reasons to justify India`s actions in Kashmir. Please remember that every genocide, holocaust, massive suppression is actually justified by the oppressors. Unfortunately their are very very few Indians who are willing to unconditionally recognize the right of self-determination of others. It is a good thing that there were enough Britishers who were willing to recognize this right for Indians, otherwise India itself would not be free.

In reply to sac, #33 :

The timescale of my two person game of stock market was a few beats of the market ticker.

Regarding options, what I do know is that one finds the fair value of options by constructing a risk-free position in options and the underlying asset on which options are being traded, and positing the return on this should match the risk-free return. In essence, one posits zero-sum game between a holder of some cash and options and a holder of the asset to calculate the fair price of the options.

Anyway, if the stock market example confuses rather than clarifies the point, then discard it.

-arun gupta

umiarr,

speaking of courage umairr, is it possible for you to explain pakistan ceding kashmiri land to china?

also why does pakistan not admit its own citizens languishing in bangladesh`s slums?

i promised to you that everytime you bring up kashmir and human rights, i will ask you these questions.

let us see how much courage you have.

umiarr,

speaking of courage uamirr, is it possible for you to explain pakistan ceding kashmiri land to china?

also why does pakistan not admit its own citizens languishing in bangladesh`s slums?

i promised to you that everytime you bring up kashmir and human rights, i will ask you these questions.

let us see how much courage you have.

Pakistan Prognosis:

2003: Pakistan`s foreign exchange reserves fall below $1bn - enough for only a few weeks worth of imports. India`s foreign exchange reserves hit $70 bn. Gen. Musharraf extends his regime indefinitely in defiance of Supreme Court guidelines issued in 2000.

2004 - BJP govt. in India sensing electoral gridlock in forthcoming general elections, initiates a calculated, undeclared `limited war` in Kashmir by attacking Pakistan held positions to shore up support for elections, and to financially `bleed` Pakistan. Result is a military stalemate after 3 months of heavy fighting with no official declaration or cessation of hostilities. Threats of use of nuclear weapons are exchanged, but nuclear weapons not used. Heavy casualties on both sides, no significant territorial gains for either side. Cost of war - approximately $4 billion for each side - 3% of India`s annual budget, but 25% of Pakistan`s annual budget and nearly equal to its entire defense budget for the year. The war bankrupts Pakistani economy. No western help forthcoming for either side. China stays out of conflict.

2004-2005 - Inflation reaches 30% in Pakistan, and 15% in India. The drought enters its fourth year. Nearly 150 million people are impoverished in the sub-continent. Baluchistan is ravaged.

2005 - Islamic revolution in Pakistan lead by religious military officers supported by clerics. Deposes Gen. Musharraf`s regime. All pretensions to moderate Islamic rule cast aside. Imposition of Sharia to obfuscate issues and masses. Ruling establishment officially declares the US and India to be `Satans` and `enemies of Islam`. The US is accused of helping India in previous year`s conflict, and India accused for subjugating Kashmir. Relations with India and Iran hit a nadir. 1 million Paksitani refugees turned away from India`s border in Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Prominent Indian muslims denounce developments in Pakistan, while putting pressure on Union government to accept refugees. China concerned about revolution`s impact on Sinkiang, but maintains official relations with Pakistan. New regime denounces secularism and MA Jinnah. BJP govt. falls in India over accusations for having contributed to the quagmire in Pakistan. `Third Front` government led by reformed Congress and Communists in India takes charge.

2004 - 2009 - Pakistan and India continue meddling in each other`s internal affairs. Unexplained bombings continue in major cities in both countries.

2007: Rebellion in Baluchistan quelled. However, unlike in the 1970s, rebellion receives support from Iran and India.

2007 - Need contributions from Chowk readers…

Layman #37

I disagree with one point you make. Throw Indian secularism out of the window and patriotism as Indians, too. However, even if your daughter were badly illtreated at home, you don`t marry her into a more abusive and exploitative family, just for atonement.

Lashkar-e-Toiba, Hizbul-Mujahiddeen and Gen Pervez Musharraf have done and said nothing to deserve to be the arbitrars of anyones fate, much less of the beleagured Kashmiris. They(and the Pakistani people by association) are already exerting a lot of choice in which Kashmiris deserve to live and which to die.

The Pakistani state rewards political disaffection/alienation with death or dire punishment. The Indian state by contrast has more sensitivity to political disaffection and has on many occasions accomodated it.

Sadhana

Sameer, sorry for the intrusion. Your article is well written and your ideas neatly accomodate many realities. Hope to hear more clarification of your suggested solutions. Will love to hear and understand more about what the dynamics were during Zia`s time from your personal experience.

Just wanted to bring to your attention something corollary to `survival of the fittest` and its non-zero-sum/zero-sum nature. I once read a naturalist`s description of a pack of wolves and their behaviour. The naturalist observed that even when two male wolves fought each other bitterly for supremacy, at the decisive moment when one wolf decided to accept defeat, both the wolves behaviour was worth noting. However, physically close the two struggling wolves were, the gesture of the defeated wolf was to bare its throat(offering its most vulnerable spot to its enemy). The gesture of the victor(an impassioned wild animal, after all, never read any religious scripture) was to keep its angry stance but move its teeth away from the profferred throat. Then both would back away.

The point was that even those animals considered the most barbaric in the anthropomorphic storyline had some `evolved` codes to prevent extinction of species. Humans have forgotten those codes long ago, maybe due ot overpopulation. But being the great thinking creatures we are, we ought to know at least as much as those wolves.

Sadhana

Re: Umairr #35

I think most people in India do realise that people in J&K are `alienated` from the mainstream... Given a plebiscite situation, everyone knows what the likely outcome will be. But that is not the point. The question, as far as India is concerned, is what is the best outcome in India`s interests? And that, is only if J&K stays within the Indian Union.

Almost every other state in India has faced some degree of alienation or the other (Punjab, Assam, Mizos etc). The reason, in my opinion, is stupid political mistakes and inequality in distribution of political power and economic resources. Wherever this imbalance has been corrected and people find that they can prosper and flourish within the Indian Union, their sense of alienation has faded away. Unfortunately, the law-and-order situation in J&K has not been such that this can happen. A political resolution should go hand-in-hand with the reduction in violence by the militants (sponsored in no small way by your country). Only then will J&K be peaceful.

The question before India is not just what the people of J&K want but what is in the best interests of the nation as a whole. And India`s interests are served best only by J&K continuing to be part of India. Pakistan seems to have consistently underestimated the will and the ability of India to fight for its unity and integrity.

Sac (#33): Thanks for your comments. I always liked your precise style of expressing your opinions. I am surprised that Chowk editors did not approve of your article. Please resubmit it. I hope to see it published at Chowk.

Regards,

Sameer

shammi #31: There is an easier way than what you have suggested to figure out what the Kashmiris want; what they have accepted; what they have rejected.

Just hold a vote with the help of a neutral agency like Amnesty International or the UNO.

What`s the point of fighting any kind of war, cyber or conventional? For some reason India keeps claiming that the Kashmiris actually support India, and it is Pakistan which is causing all the problems. Yet India refuses to hold a vote. It would be in India`s interest to hold a vote and expose Pakistan.

If Indians reject holding a vote, then please do not claim that Kashmiris want to remain with India. And please do not blame Pakistan without first holding a vote. Either hold a vote and then blame Pakistan, or do not hold vote and stop blaming outside sources for the problems in Kashmir.

In my opinion, if everyone in India, including the Indian govt., and the Indian commentators on Chowk, were to speak their minds truthfully, they would all agree deep down inside that the Kashmiris do not want to be with India (whether they want to be with Pakistan or not is a debatable point, but they definitely do not want to be with India). I am surprised why no one in India has the courage to state that out in the open. Why put up such a facade, why be in such a state of denial, and why be in a perpetual state of war?

Secularity cannot be forced by killing people into submitting to secularity. That is exactly the opposite of secularism. Secularity has to be accepted by people at their own free will. Secularity means respecting others points of views; not killing them to accept your point of view.

A person who indireclty or directly supports agencies involved in the killing of innocents (supporting Indian govt. actions in Kashmir) is perhaps not as guilty as the person who is doing the actual killing; but the supporter has at least a small stain of the victim`s blood on his hand.

I hope some day people will develop a conscience and let the Kashmiris decide how the Kashmiris should live their lives.

re arun gupta,fuzair and sameer`s ruminations on the stock market as a zero-sum game or not:

Arun, even at an atomic level, a single transaction in the stock market is not a zero-sum phenomenon. First of all how will you judge the result of that transaction? Lets say for example one month after the transaction you shall look at the value of the commodity involved. At that point one of the parties may be ahead of the game. But the ``losing`` party may actually have invested the money he/she received from the original transaction and come out ahead of the ``winner``. Even if you were to think purely in cash terms and forget about the time-value of money or various options available to the investor, the ``loser`` may actually be the ``winner`` and vice versa. This requires some knowledge of option theory to explain which I will in case you insist.

BTW I do agree with your explanation of ``enjoyment-values`` for games of chance. If more people knew about them they`d rather play Blackjack than slots :)

re Saima #16:

I did submit something a month back. Obviously it did not meet Chowk`s exalted standards for publication.

later

-sac

Arshy: All my comments you are attributing to yourself were actually directed at Yasser (YLH). He is very fond of Z. A. Bhutto whereas I got burnt during his reign because I was then a teenager Farangi_Kush, not to mention the loss of 8 months of schooling during opposition movement against Bhutto. I could have gone in circles using Allama Iqbal, Ali Shariaati or Rumi, to support a ``true Islamic system`` but I chose to present my opinions honestly, the way I felt deep inside. It is the repeat of Zia`s policies, JI, JUP, JUI, SSP, TJP, madaris, jehadis, lashkars, Taliban, Shariaat Court, Shariaat Bill, Hudood Ordinance and like that I detest. Could you name a saner or truely Islamic political party? Actually after reading your latest post, we have more opinions in common than differences. I look forward to continue interacting with you on Chowk.

farangi_Kush: You are right about Non-Zero by Robert Wright. He used it to explain the evolution of human beings. The idea to apply this model to the historical data about Pakistan came after I read the book. But I knew about Game Theory much before this book came out.

It is normal to apply various models to available data. Generally speaking you do not create a model without any data to feed into it. If there was no alcohol drinking and no pork eating, there would be no reason to prohibit it.

temporal: Sorry sir, niether I have the book, nor have I read it. I just read the same piece what I posted. I will look for it in Jackson Heights, the desi area of NY.

I am not sure if Zaheer Babar is the same well-known leftist journalist of Imroze daily of 20 years ago or someone else. It sure sounds juicy material to read.

Paradise Lost, in the Name of God and Self-Determination

Kashmir: India and Pakistan twist truth as they pour guns, money into the disputed Himalayan region.

Los Angeles Times

By MANSOOR IJAZ

When approaching Srinagar, capital of this disputed Himalayan state, one has the unmistakable impression of coming to paradise on Earth. Buttressed by jagged snow-capped mountains that have been called the roof of the world, the Kashmir valley is a breathtaking mosaic of towering pines, glistening lakes and flowing streams.

On the ground, however, reality is quite different. The dispute over Kashmir always has boiled down to the fate of the people in its valley, controlled by India. I went there this month as an American citizen to ask ordinary Kashmiris why what had started 50 years ago as a principled fight for self-determination had turned into the violent war of religious extremists. What I found was disturbing, not only because the documented human rights violations are real, but also because of the overwhelming evidence of lies by both Pakistani and Indian authorities.

New Delhi, for example, would have the world believe that only a few thousand troops are defending against foreign aggression on their soil. Yet Indian security forces could be seen everywhere. The look and feel of a police state was unambiguous. One Kashmiri official finally admitted that the real figure for troops in the valley alone approached 150,000. And the valley represents only a fraction of the total area in dispute in Kashmir.

Interestingly, local police and security forces commanders admitted that their soldiers had been overzealous in expelling militants from local homes, violating civil liberties in the process--contrition that may be part of an organized campaign by New Delhi to lift the appearance of an oppressive environment of rights abuses. Permitting foreigners like me to visit after the abuses largely have stopped also may be part of the appeasement policy.

Yet perhaps the most compelling facet of India`s win-at-all-costs strategy in Kashmir is the evidence of the money being poured into the enclave to secure a reconciliation between local Kashmiris and the motherland. New construction and refurbishment of tourist hot spots can be seen everywhere. One look at the homes in which Kashmiri separatist leaders and others in the valley live, and the big business of war becomes humorously obvious. Separatists get funding for insurgency operations from Pakistan`s military intelligence apparatus. Then India matches the grants to bring them back to the Indian camp. It`s the politics of war finance at its worst.

Pakistan`s deceit was equally clear. Islamabad would have the world believe that it does not provide official military support for militant groups waging jihad, or holy war, and that the militants are indigenous Kashmiris battling for their own freedom. Both claims strain credulity. I saw several thousand weapons seized from insurgents in gun battles around the valley and along the Line of Control--the unofficial border between Pakistan-controlled and India-controlled Kashmir--everything from the latest AK-47 rifles to sophisticated hand grenades to rocket launchers bearing the embossed logos of Pakistan`s official munitions factories. The fingerprints of Pakistani army and intelligence support were unmistakable.

I reviewed identification cards taken from captured foreign moujahedeen warriors. These cards were designed to notify families back home in the event of combat death and to ensure war reparations would be properly paid--hardly procedures for local sons of war. Receipt books for money collected in the names of various Islamic charities to finance the purchase of war supplies further evidenced the principal complaint that Kashmiris repeatedly voiced to me: that their struggle to gain independence had turned into someone else`s war for the cause of pan-Arabism, pan-Islamism or something other than Kashmiri freedom.

Stuck in the middle of these two egocentric forces are the Kashmiris, perhaps the most docile people on Earth. Mentally, emotionally and physically ravaged by a war that neither side seems able to win, they appear on the verge of opting for peace with Hindu masters who offer economic revitalization and peaceful coexistence rather than pressing on with Muslim Pakistan, which offers little more than religious zealotry and violent accession.

One Kashmiri elder who ran a pharmacy on the outskirts of Srinagar put it most succinctly: ``When the moujahedeen first came, we welcomed them into our homes with open arms. Today, they come from far away and demand our food and shelter for freeing us. Yet they show us their guns and we do not feel free. When they leave, the security forces ransack our homes looking for them, and the violence starts all over again. This type of freedom we do not wish for our enemy.``

Without an end to the violence that dominates the character of today`s freedom fighters, Pakistan is in danger of losing whatever moral authority it once may have enjoyed in trying to liberate Kashmir. But India should be clear that Pakistan will never go quietly. New Delhi can do a big-bucks deal with native Kashmiris who are sick of war, but militants financed by deep-pocketed zealots in far-off lands may escalate the stakes to an unacceptable price for paradise on Earth.

- - -

Mansoor Ijaz, a Nuclear Physicist of Pakistani Descent, Is Chairman of an Investment Firm in New York

Food for thought:

Website to counter Pak cyber war on Kashmir

New Delhi, May 21: Taking the Pakistan-backed portals head on in their cyber war against India, a Delhi-based Kashmiri has launched a website to mobilise global public opinion against ISI-sponsored terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.

The website, savekashmirmovement.org, is not only aimed at exposing Pakistan`s nefarious designs in the border state, but also in providing a platform to varied sections of the society to express their views on the vexed Kashmir problem.

According to M.A. Hussain alias Y.B. Home, the brain behind the project, who describes himself as a ``victim of terrorism``, the website would effectively counter the Pakistani propaganda on Kashmir through popular participation.

``Pakistan has launched a cyber war against India and we have been left far behind. Through this website we want to tell our Pakistani brethren that the people of Kashmir had rejected the two-nation theory way back in 1947,`` he said.

``Kashmir is the basis of secularism in India. The creation of Bangladesh and the Mohajir, Baluchi and Sindhi movements, besides the growing Shia-Sunni clashes in Pakistan have proven the fallacy of the two-nation theory,`` Hussain said.

“The website is an independent initiative of a concerned Kashmiri and an Indian citizen,`` Hussain said dismissing suggestions that it was backed by any government agency. ``Any government-sponsored website would be preaching. Ours is an open platform committed to promote people to people communication on Kashmir,`` he said.

To be formally launched early next month by a ``child victim of Pakistani terrorism in Kashmir``, the site has various sections such as “people`s platform”, “opinion leaders” and “profile of a terrorist”.

``While we are for the total unification and integration of Kashmir with the rest of the country and against any talks with pro-Pakistan elements including the Hurriyat Conference, the website would provide an open forum to all shades of opinion,`` Hussain said.

The website, he said, is part of the larger “save Kashmir movement” and hopes to create a “cyber movement” on Kashmir.

A unique feature of the website would be the “web monitor” which would reproduce excerpts from other Kashmir-related websites.

``As part of the save Kashmir movement, we will demand among other things restoration of democracy in Pakistan, a full stop on export of terrorism to India, demilitarisation of the Pakistani society and closure of madarsas which sponsor training camps inside Pakistan,`` Hussain said.

``Our objective is to defeat Pakistan-sponsored terrorism politically and morally,`` he said.

Jay (#26): Most of the conversion to Islam took place during 12oo-1700 AD whereas Muslims invasions started 200 years earlier. There is no denying about some conversions due to fear for life but majority of the coversions resulted form a complex combinations of several factors. The best description may be a momentum followed by a trend. The momentum and trend did benefit from the Islamic empires. The converts, in the begining were nominal Muslims with very little to differentiate them from the rest. However, with time, there were clear distinctions. Similarly Sikhism, despite all odds, created a momentum and trend of its own. Most Pakistannis are either not familiar or do not acknowledge of some Muslims conversion to Sikhism, much before the Sikh rule over norwestern India. Sikhism could not have threatened the lives of Muslims during Islamic empires, except during few uprisings. Why did then some Muslim chose to convert?

Jay, it is momentum followed by trend as it is happening recently in South Korea. I am sure you can not make a case for life threatening situations for Buddhists, Shamanists and Confucianists converting in large numbers to evangelical Christianity.

You are repudiating an imaginery claim of superiority of Islamic religion, which I did not make.

[In Punjabi, we call it, ``hor choopo ganney`` and in Urdu, in the words of Faiz A. Faiz,

woh baat saare fasaney maiN jis ka zikr na tha

woh baat unko buhut na-gawar guzri hay ]

This would be interesting.I intend to follow it closely from a safe distance.The quick-sands of intellectualism promise to provide a good show of the hapless few who are bold enough to venture close.

Sameer:Like the designer of a cross-word puzzle,you first find the solution,then formulate the clues,& eventually end up with a `game`(puzzle)--and then ask others to solve.Where would this puzzle be if a book by such name(Zero-sum ...?..by..?) had not appeared lately on the book-shelves around North America.

Is marriage a zero-sum game? or would you suggest keeping a cow is useless if one can buy milk from the store.Do these concepts have geographical or cultural relevance.Is a game zero-sum here and non zeo-sum elsewhere?Is becoming a shaheed zero-sum or becoming a ghazi zeo-sum.Can people who have firm faith & belief in ``Obscure`` concepts playing such games and are simply not aware of it.

Like the guy who always took a nap in the afternoons without ever realising that he was performing the grand act of ``Qualoola``----which in his mind was restricted only to the scholars of chaste urdu?

__________________________________________________

wassalam

Sameer #18:

Pls. Purolator that book after you`ve read it.

Questions:

1: How serious is that journalist/writer?
2: When and why did he write this book.
3: Does he mention any current crop?

To use a delicate word, this dichotomy has been common knowledge in certain circles. (I have heard wild stories about some of the current crop as well as some quite lower down the peg. If the stories can reach me thousands of miles away, imagine what the locals would know?)

Sometimes I wonder how a poor labourer or a clerk would react when he hears such juicy stories?

What takes for the blood pressure to shoot through the hut or jhuggi`s ceilings?

What takes, indeed!

One may rationlaise that the disenfranchised are too busy groveling for salt, daal and flour to indulge in any unproductive and vindictive thoughts or activites.

Is this apathy?

---I have a hope: some day the masses will say, ``bus, bau`ji (babuji), bus!`` or ``bus, shahji. bus!`` or ``bus, saab. bus!``
---I have a hope: some day the masses will spontaneously and almost simultaneously pour out into the streets.
---I have a hope: their vengeance spares property.
---I have a hope: the necessary blood spilled that day will put the fear of ----of?-----of Allah, if you will ----- of death, if you will --- in the psyches of the new rulers.
---I have a hope: their actions result in an immediade amelioration and long term improvement of their lives.

Enough for now. My supply of hope is as inexhaustible as that of despair. The fun part is the life long tight rope walk in their midst.

regards,

temporal