The Laying to Waste of the World: a Memory of I.H Burney

Shankar, to answer your question directly: yes it seems like sheer lunacy to invest in a pipeline through Afghanistan. Nevertheless, events indicate otherwise. During the Cold War the ring of US allies against the Soviet Union were Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan among others. Today another kind of realigning is taking place, this time based on the Caspian oilfields. The access and control of oil reflects directly on the economic and military strength of a nation.When Hitler tried to get to the Caspian oilfields, they were a tempting target - but now the recent discoveries have skyrocketed its potential reserves: the numbers place it second only to the Middle East. When you translate these numbers into todays (and future) dollars, the amounts are staggering:

Total oil reserves (not counting the natural gas reserves) of the Caspian Sea region:

- More than 200 billion barrels (exceeds Western Europe and/or the United States -110 BBL)

- Second only to the Middle East (700 BBL).

World demand for crude oil : up 30% by year 2010.

US demands: up to 70% by 2010 (from 50% today)

Asian demand for oil is forecast to almost double (up to 31.7 million b/d by 2010).

This is making VIPs of people like Adzer President, Galdar Aliev and Niyazov, President of Turkmenistan, accomodated at Blair House, across the street from the White House, an honor reserved for true VIPs. Who really heard of Galdar Aliev or Niazov before? These barons of the Caspian nations had Cabinet members hosting dinners for them, and now motor about in their nations in armored Mercedes-Benzes, with troops of bodyguards at their heels. The regional wars now take on another meaning in the Armenia - Azarbaijan struggle, in Nogorno-Karabagh, Chechneya, Georgia etc - these are wars being fought for control of regions that are sitting on oil - oil which is useless, unless shipped out.

- One route is over Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey to Ceyhan. But the Armenia-Azerbaijan war make this uncertain. There were three assassination attempts, against the Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze - he suggested these were related to his country`s attempt to be part of a pipeline route transporting Caspian Sea oil to the Black Sea.

- The separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh have blocked the Azeri pipeline westward toward the Mediterranean, bypassing the other foe, Iran.

- Iran, in turn, is blocking the bypassing pipeline by supporting both the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh against the Azeris (the western path toward Ceyhan) and the Chechens against Russia (the northern path toward Novorossisk.). Iran can provide a direct overland route to the Persian gulf - but Iran is an enemy of the US, still viewed with suspicion (notwithstanding the recent overtures from Iran, interestingly) and the US will not trust the security of a pipeline there.

- Russia wants most of the Caspian oil to go via its territories, from Baku-Novorossisk pipeline. But this goes through Chechnya, and it is for this reason that Russia has jumped on the terrorist bandwagon - it wants to eliminate the Chechen obstacle.

- The US, however, would like to bypass Russia, and prefers going through the Caucasus. Once the oil reaches the Black Sea, however, the problem is how to remove it. The most viable option would be the Bosphorus but this would pose a potential disaster environmentally because the Bosphorus is dead water.

- The US wants to see as many different pipeline routes as possible to prevent any one country from developing a stranglehold over the flow of oil from the region and this is one reason why the Afghanistan/Pakistan pipeline has taken on an increased importance.

Just look at a few of the quotes from State Department officials:

Secretary of State James Baker told the New York Times in typical James Baker fashion (within days of the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait): ``We are talking about oil. Got it? Oil, vital American interests.``

A US State Department report from the then Clinton administration said:

``The Caspian region could become the most important new player in world oil markets over the next decade. The US has critical foreign policy issues at stake - the increase and diversification of world energy supplies, the independence and sovereignty of the NIS [Newly Independent States] - and isolation of Iran.``

Bill Richardson hinted at the determination of Washington to prevent the pipeline from running through either Iran or Russia, so as to limit the political influence of both in the region:

``This is about America`s energy security, which depends on diversifying our sources of oil and gas worldwide. It`s also about preventing strategic inroads by those who don`t share our values. We`re trying to move these newly independent countries toward the West. We would like to see them reliant on Western commercial and political interests rather than going another way. We`ve made a substantial political investment in the Caspian, and it`s very important to us that both the pipeline map and the politics come out right.``

George Monbiot wrote in the Guardian: ``In 1998 the chief executive of a major oil services company, remarked: ``I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian.`` But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan.

That chief executive was Dick Cheney, who is now US vice-president.

In this light Afghanistan has become as indispensable to the regional control and transport of oil in central Asia as Egypt was in the Middle East. While I see the rationale behind Pakistan`s ``strategic depth`` concept, and why it supported the Taliban, it is also true that other players in Pakistan saw the main issue as the pipeline through Afghanistan, and that this is why the Taliban were supported. Unocal started negotiating to build oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan and into Pakistani ports. All they required was an administrative force in Afghanistan, which would guarantee the safety of the pipeline. Unocal invited some of the leaders of the Taliban to Houston, where they were given the VIP treatment. For the first year of Taliban rule, US policy towards the regime seems to have been determined by Unocal. Ahmad Rashid writes that in 1997 he was told by a US diplomat that ``the Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did. There will be Aramco pipelines, an emir, no parliament and lots of Sharia law. We can live with that.``

Pipeline security is the issue, considering the volatility in the region. For the pipeline through Afghanistan to become a reality, Pakistan`s participation is critical and a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan are necessary. This is why the US will remain engaged here for the long term and why Pakistan is important for the economies of the region. It is possible that everyone will lose in the region and this is likely to occur if there is further instability in the region. And that is likely, unless two things happen: The resolution of Kashmir and the economic development of the region, which should go hand in hand with the extraction of its resources. It is no longer possible to treat the regions as pawns. This is why the present approach has make sure that it is to the benefit of all the players involved. Most parts of the region can ignite into war anytime.

THE PLAYERS:

The six independent states that emerged here out of the breakup of the Soviet Unionare: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia (west side of the Caspian Sea), and Kazakstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (east side).

RUSSIA:

Russia has 30% of Caspian Sea shores (although only holds 2.5% of the total Caspian oil reserves) but is trying to have as many pipelines as possible to cross its territory to enforce its influence. All existing oil pipelines run through Russia and terminate at Novorossisk on the Black Sea where the oil is shipped to the world markets.

IRAN:

Iran is definitely the second most important player, after Russia, in this New Great Game in the Caspian Region. However, its enmity with the U.S. is significantly hurting its ability to use its geopolitical advantages to gain more power in the region.

IRAQ:

Iraq is going to be the next target on the war on terrorism. Aside from its obvious support for terrorists, exploiting the Caspian oil means a more direct military and political presence in Iraq is necessary for the US. Iraq`s geographic position says that whoever controls the north of Iraq would be in a position, for example, to protect a pipeline through southern Turkey, or launch military strikes against a pipeline through Iran. And Saddam Hussain remains an intolerable obstacle for the pipeline plans.

PAKISTAN - AFGHANISTAN:

Uzbekistan is significant for this because from here the proposed pipelines will run east toward China and south toward Pakistan and then to India. Turkmenistan has two pipelines to Turkey via Iran and to Pakistan via Afganistan, thus allowing no Russian control whatsoever.

The reason the focus of the US shifted from piping the oil through the eastern european states to Afghanistan can be understood in just two words: China and India. It is the growth of these two economies that is going to provide the impetus for the market for the oil. The countries around the Caspian sea may be sitting on the oilfields, but it is the US companies that own exploration and exploitation rights to them. They stand to make not millions or billions, but trillions in revenue.

And everone is manuevering for a piece of it.

Bapu, I really don`t know what are you talking about. Does not matter any way.

sherdil,

There is one question that nags me--& I`m hoping you would throw some light on it--as to whether I`m wrong &/or just prejudiced.

Here goes, for what its worth:

Isnt it assinine to dream that an oil pipeline could run through Afghanistan & bring prosperity to the whole area?

Afghanistan is the LAST place in the world any country or business would/could invest money in to build a pipeline. Not just today; but even 50 years down the road.

The problem is the mentality of the people in Afghanistan. It has (& always will be, IMO) the only ``wild West`` region of the world. Throughout history, people have tried to conquer it--only to abandon it in frustration. Its like trying to domesticate a wolf & make it a pet dog--will never happen--its not in their nature.

The events in the recent past has only strengthened my ``prejudice``. When you come down to the nitty-gritty, the word ``Afghan`` is a very loose term to describe the people of that region. There are a multitude of tribes who have fought each other for centuries. The only time they band together is if they have a common enemy to fight against. It is a land where warlords, ultimately, rule the roost. Their loyalities are very fickle & usually self centered.

Ofcourse, there is an unwritten, elaborate set of ``manners`` that come into play when dealing with them. You dont change a warlord`s allegiance by plopping a huge wad of banknotes at his feet---he`ll find that kind of behavior ``insolent`` & ``ill-mannered``. One has to go through an elaborate set of gyrations, using a lot of intermediaries, & ``proper language & manners`` & massage his ego; THEN graciously offer him money. And then MAYBE he will give you his allegiance; until someone else gives him a better deal. The conception of a ``legal contract`` just does`nt apply.

Even the MASTERS of diplomacy & intrigue (the British) tried to rule them; but failed. At the sametime, the British used those tactics very successfully to rule the Indians for several centuries.

How the HELL do you expect a multi-billion dollar pipeline to run through that country?! You CANNOT satisfy each & every warlord & tribe at the same time. Even if you get 99% of the tribes to make peace; that 1% of tribes will bomb the pipeline in the middle of the night. I DO NOT believe they look at the greater good of the whole country--they would rather cut their nose to spite their face.

Dunno about any of you; but I wont invest a cent in the ``Afghan pipeline fund``.

(Also being posted to ``The Price`` board - as this may soon go off the front page of Chowk)

Regardless of the governing parties that will come in Afghanistan, Pakistan needs to make sure that it now follows a policy that has the welfare and security of Afghans in mind, and maintains ties with the men who come into power - men such as Abdul Qadir, who, as Stuka mentioned, is now governor of Jalalabad.

Abdul Qadir was a previous commander in Nangahar and governor of Jalalabad. He is also the brother of Abdul Haq. This is a man that Pakistan is working with and will do very well with him. He too has the welfare of the Afghans at heart, as his brother did, and is well respected by the Afghanis. He has proved himself in the war with the Soviets. Both Abdul Haq and Abdul Qadir were commanders under Maulvi Yunis Khalis, who will be playing a major role in the new government of Afghanistan. Maulvi Yunis Khalis is no extremist, but some have called him a `moderate fundamentalist`. It looks like the Northern Alliance have made their claim to being part of the coming government - how much power they get is largely dependent on the tribal chiefs on the other side (other than Yunis Khalis, who is not a tribal chief, despite his influence).

If the oil pipeline goes through Pakistan (as the US wants) then the Alliance is going to make some conciliatory noises - under the surface, anyway. We must take them up on it. This means close relationships have to be kept up with all the leaders in Afghanistan and to that end Pakistan has made good progress with Iran (who is a strong backer of Ismail Khan) and the others already mentioned.

On the international front, one country we can build strong ties with is Britain, much more so than the US. Although the new relationship with the US is going to continue, we need to also look at Britain for some genuine opportunities that have recently come up in the textile manufacturing areas. The British have a much better rapport with us and they are far more committed to a longer term solution in this region. In return Pakistan may be just the right partner for them, in textiles, manufacturing, as well as pharmaceuticals. The relationship could take the form of the one presently between Chinese manufacturing and Japanese companies, which is a model that could bring Japan out of its recent recession.

I have always emphasized Pakistan`s approach should be its own economic well-being and stability, but we need to remain aware of other developments as well - like the Indian overtures to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan which has a few Pakistanis worried - but perhaps overly so. The thought is that an Indian-backed Northern Alliance will create a hostile Afghanistan on our western border. In some respects, this is similar to pre -1971 years, when Pakistan was East and West Pakistan. At that time we also had two hostile fronts: West Pakistan and the large (East Pakistan) border with a hostile India, which presented a larger problem because of the distance between East and West Pakistan. At this present time, with a hostile Afghanistan and a hostile India sandwiching us, it seems to me that this is a easier situation than defending two borders 1000 miles apart. Speaking with a tribal mentality, fighting it out standing back to back has definite advantages. Others who are more experienced than I, may be able to point out flaws in my thinking - I would be interested in all views. One more important consideration is that there is a large ethnic Pushtun population that has no love for the Northern Alliance, and this population is poised right at the Northern Aliance`s heart.

Given all this, I think Pakistan needs to:

1. Remain alert, but pursue its programme of stability and economic revival with singlemindedness.

2. Bring educational minded individuals into positions where they can rebuild the educational institutes with an agenda that also eliminates the separations now present with our ``deeni madrassahs``, our government schools and the private institutions.

3. Keep engaged with the western media in all its aspects and present the image of the real Pakistan - which is ``dynamic, moderate and creative``, as the reporters from Hi-te Bild and De Telegraaf (from Holland) told me.

4. Keep engaged with India, with the purpose of resolving the Kashmir conflict.

saminashah #597

Wish you the best of peace, health and enjoyment during this season too :)

``Although many of us have ambivalent feelings about this holiday``

And hope to hear more about this ambivalence, esp after the recent events..

temporal #125 Is this the panjabistan that you are inviting all your chowk buddies to join? Sounds more like a hedonistic mass orgy club to me. Though far be it for me to knock hedonism, given the mess the world is in anyway.

nasah #595 ``and a very large contingent of ``others````

I believe these ``others`` as you call them are being referred to in the press as ``Pakistanis``. As a next step in your path to coming to terms with 1947, here is a little exercise: Stand before a mirror every day and say:

Day 1: ``Pa``. Repeat 5 times.

Day 2: ``Pak``. Repeat.

Day 3: ``Pakistan``. (This may hurt the tongue a bit, but you must be brave and learn to say it).

Day 4: ``Pakistanis``. Repeat 10 times.

By jove, he`s got it!!!! Congratulations.

Humzadji, what are you trying to prove by posting all those numbers? People whose opinion should matter to you already believe that Islam is a great religion and do not need to read all your posts. People who won`t believe that in spite of zillions of your such posting should not matter to you at all.. So why such redundance?

There are plenty of good books available on Hinduism, if you are serious, I would suggest you first read Swami Vivekananda`s complete work or Dr. Radhakrshnan. I heard people at BHU from other disciplines than Philosophy used to gather to listen to Dr. Radhakrishnan. Internet probably will not be a good medium to get into such heavy matters. Regards

Bapu/Bijli....

Please bring back your saner personalities, please, pleeeze. I thought you got better as you were talking some sense through Fatimah. What happened? And please do not assume any more new identity, every time I come to Chowk, I find some more new handles with same writing style. When one can easily detect an imposter, then where is the fun of faking? If you have substance you will come across like ``Bijli`` all the time no matter whether you are ``Bharadwaj`` or ``Lajwanti``. No mudslinging please.....it hurts.

scout,

{{As if their current and historical plight wasn`t torture enough. The Afghanis now can look forward to a new kind of slow, painful, torture offered by Indian movies.}}

True...but you are forgetting the ONE INCREDIBLE TRUTH ABOUT FREEDOM.

Freedom means an Afghani can now see an Indian movie if he/she wants to & NOT watch it if he/she DOES NOT want to. Today, no holier-than-thou mullah will whip their behind if they choose to watch an Indian movie...even if they get tortured slowly & painfully in the process. That decision will be left to the individual Afghani--NOT leaders who decide what is ``morally appropriate`` & what is not--& force it on the general population.

The Govt Of Pakistan may do well to heed that advice as well. Indian movies are banned in Pakistan...er for what reason...``cultural contamination?!!``. So what does a freedom loving Pakistani man or woman do? Rent Indian movies or watch them on cable! For some strange reason the GoP knows that its going on, but pretends not to notice. I wont be surprised if the all the Generals` wives & kids watch Indian movies--what with all those video stores on military bases.

Lets translate that principle to Chowk. Zahra, a normally intelligent lady, got livid about some comments that the 12 headed monster made. Then, in a fit of rage, she threatens to SUE Chowk! Gimme a break! What does she expect Chowk staff to do? become ``manners`` or ``moral`` police?!

Lets assume she files the case in an American court. Also, lets assume she gets a blunt, straight talking person like Judge Judy:) This is what she will say to Zahra:

``listen Zahra! did someone put a gun to your head & made you go to that website?! Do yourself a favour & dont ever go there! And while youre at it; kindly install a net nanny on your computer so your kids dont go there.

And above all STOP WASTING THIS COURT`S TIME! CASE CLOSED--NEXT CASE!``

Thats the BEST definition of FREEDOM I can think of.

www.progressive.org

http://salon.com/news/wire/2001/11/21/wtc_casualties/index.html

Missing, dead at WTC drops below 3,900

- - - - - - - - - - - -

By Richard Pyle

Nov. 21, 2001 | NEW YORK (AP) --

The city`s official estimate of the number of people killed in the Sept. 11 terrorist assault on the World Trade Center has dropped below 3,900 -- far lower than the most conservative projections just after the disaster.

And Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said Wednesday the tally would likely drop further, perhaps by hundreds, as police detectives continue to pore over the missing-person list to eliminate errors and duplications.

The tally stood Wednesday at 3,899, which includes people whose deaths have been confirmed and those still missing. The total includes people on the ground and on the two hijacked airliners that crashed into the twin towers.

The figure represents a sharp decline from the city`s peak estimate of 6,789 dead and missing, which came on Sept. 24.

The main reasons for the drop, city officials say, are the elimination of people reported missing but later found to be alive and multiple missing-person reports on the same individual, sometimes with different name spellings.

As death certificates are issued, Giuliani said Wednesday, ``you find out you`re resolving the situation for three different people.``

He said reports from foreign consulates, some of which overestimated the number of missing foreign nationals by hundreds, also inflated the city`s tally.

As the death toll is adjusted, the figure is entering a realm of comparison with two other events in U.S. history that killed massive numbers in a single day: the Civil War battle of Antietam in 1862 and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. According to historians and the National Park Service, the Antietam battle on Sept. 17, 1862, was the bloodiest single day on American soil, with some 3,650 soldiers killed. The Dec. 7, 1941, attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii -- then a U.S. territory -- took the lives of 2,388 people.

In New York, in the first days after the twin towers collapsed, unofficial death estimates ranged as high as 7,000 to 10,000. But it soon became evident that the hijacked jets had struck early enough in the day that the trade center was far from full. The towers had 40,000 employees and 150,000 daily visitors. Independent casualty counts by news organizations have been lower than the city`s official figures. An Associated Press tally of confirmed dead and reported dead or missing stood at 2,772 on Wednesday.

AP`s figure is based on data from the medical examiner, courts, funeral homes, places of worship, death notices, employers, public agencies, families and AP`s foreign bureaus.

Giuliani said Wednesday that the city has issued nearly 2,300 death certificates. Some were issued by the city medical examiner`s office after it reached a positive identification, but more than 1,800 were issued without a body. The city and state set up an expedited procedure to obtain a death certificate without a body so that families could quickly get life insurance and other benefits.

Stuka

``P.S. You like the Red Skins? Did you go to school in Washington? My boss is a major Red Skins fan.``

....went to school in va....my dad and bro are major skins fans....and i guess that`s how i got into it...even though i was pretty young then, i still remember the last time the skins won the superbowl...(91?)...we all trudged out in the cold to welcome them back....since then its been all downhill....:(

Re: 12-head retard

..is your little boyfriend from the madrassah not performing?...what`s the source of your sexual frustration?...gives you a teeny, weeny little tent in your pant to see any male-female interaction on Chowk...

Bijli #587 (Read this after you have read my post below) ``Punjab is not by even any means in the highest literacy state just ask the driver sikhs on g.t. roads dufus`` And dont go around spreading untruths about sikhs. Sikhs are my blood brothers, I am assured by Scholar Ali1.

Bijli #587 ``Trouble is you are soooo smart that you have no depth!!``

I`m smarter than you kiddo. That does not make me sooooo smart. That just makes me smarter than a log of wood. (I`ll go back and read the rest of your post now).