Running Naked

shankar #91: I don`t think the Indian govt. is going to actually attack Pakistan. It wants to go to the brink of war, see what Pakistan does, and then step back. Kind of like a game of chicken. The other factor is that Pakistan has stated it will only defend itself, and has no desire to attack India.

The key factor here is Musharraf. I think he has matured a lot during the current Afghan crisis. He handled it extremely well. And barring the habitual and somewhat racist (i.e. they hate anoyone in the Army, both good and bad) Army-haters, and the Pakistani religious extremists, everyone in the world appreciated his actions. He was highly praised by Stanley Wolpert a few days ago, in a lecture in Karachi, as a good leader for Pakistan. Musharraf has wisely not made any threatening statements. He has made only defensive ones. And he has not asked the nation to gather around the flag, for war. As long as he keeps this attitude, things shouldn`t escalate. The Pakistani English press has, as usual been very introspective and has based its arguments on self-criticism and/or self-defence.

I think even the actions taken by Pakistan, like banning flights etc. should not have been taken. Pakistan needs to go into a completely defensive mode, with no tit-for-tat actions. But so far, their is very hysteria on the Pakistani side.

The problem however is that unintentional individual actions or miscalculations by military personnel can initiate combat. Suppose an Indian pilot flying close to the border misnavigates and enters Pakistani airspace by a few miles. What should Pakistan do? It will more than likely shoot it down (Pakistani air defence systems are extremely good, and it indigeneously produces many of its missiles now). Then what happens. Suppose a Pakistani pilot makes the same mistake, and get shot down. You would be surprised at how many wars are started like this.

Quite a few of us ex-miiltary guys get together on weekends. We were recently discussing the current scenario, and half the guys stated they would go back to Pakistan, and offer their services to the military reserves, if Pakistan were attacked. This is the other dangerous part. Once a war starts, people become completely involved in defending their country. Patriotism becomes the name of the game. Barring the few Army-hating Pakistanis on this site, I wouldn`t be surprised, if many of the even otherwise pro-India Pakistanis are swept in a wave of patriotism.

You need to keep in mind, that traditionally Pakistanis view a war with India differently than Indians view a war with Pakistan. For Pakistan, it is literally a matter of survival. An equivalent scenario for India would be if it were at war with a combined China and USSR. For India, at least in the pre-nuclear days, it was not a matter of survival (Pakistan could not destroy India). Also, India has successfully divided Pakistan once. So that paranoia exists amongst Pakistanis, as well. So while India may wait for a long time before going nuclear, Pakistan is not going to wait too long, if attacked by India.

The Pakistani press, ironically, is much more free now, than it has ever been. This has been stated by journalists themselves. I had never, in my whole life, seen politicians of the opposition parties, ever being interviewed on Pakistani television, much less being asked to give their opinions on govt. policies. However, now they are on Pakistani television in Larry King type shows. If you are interested in finding out the mental state of Pakistanis, I would encourage you to watch a PTV program in real video, at www.pakistanvision.com titled, ``News Night with Talat Hussain.`` (click on this title in left menu bar). It is updated daily and features politicians from all Pakistani parties like PPP, PML, etc.

tahmed321 #128,

that`s an optimistic thought, but i really believe India is hell bent on war and will use any excuse it can to go through with it, no matter how much Pakistan does to go after terrorist organizations.

i`m afraid we`re heading for a big mess, with two starving third world nations with nuclear weapons going after each other. realistically, Pakistan is on the losing end of the equation just by taking into account it`s military`s size compared to India`s. and if war is to occur and India is to win, India`s economy will crash, creating a weaker India. whatever the case, the subcontinent`s people will suffer greatly.

i hope this doesn`t happen.

re: sameerjb

You sometimes amaze me my friend - I also think that democracy with all its shortcomings is probably the best system of government - But in the past it has backfired in many cases - Nazis were also ``democratically elected`` - BJP is no different than the Nazis - only in this case these nutcases have control of nuclear weapons. Whereas the animals in LeT and JeM, etc. are capable of doing anything, so is the BJP membership.

re: tahmed

``Musharaff seems to have taken into custody 50 members of the jehadi groups in Pakistan. A very good move. Next step: hand them over to India, after getting Indians to agree that these men will get an open and fair trial in India, and in turn to also help dig out evidence against these men in Pakistan.``

Great idea tahmed!! I think you have summed it up quite well. But why do things in a halfassed manner. The BJP leadership has insisted that Musharaf is a terrorist who is behind every atatck against India. If we are to do things properly then we should hand over Musharaf to BJP. As a strong believer in ``Indian Democracy``, I think he will be given a fair trial.

uncle shankar

maan i feel your pain...you have so aptly put in words the turmoil thats been going on in my head these past few days...i mean, this is IT? does anyone understand that i DONT want to die..i DO NOT want my parents to have to burn to death because of some fukin piece of property or some terrorists or some idiot brained minsters or some isi or raw agent fit to be shot dead...if pakistan gets nuked ill never have all those grandkids iv been planning since forever..and if india gets nuked, my babies, my chotinani, my cousins, heck my tailor all die...fried into these overdone french fries..and its all because of some stupid asssholes on both sides who dont know right from wrong...nincompoops who dont deserve to be leaders

Pakistanis want proof from India that many of their Pakis organizations are terrorists funded and backed by Paki government??????????

Wow....degree of your illusions are astounding. The whole world is aware that Pakis have been perpetrating terrorism. Infact you own leaders admit every now a then their terrorist endeavors. Remember Kargil....that according you are indigenous Kashmiri operation and now you (the nation of Pakistan) pays homage to Paki soldiers that died there. If Pakis want to continue to believe their own lies that is fine, the rest of the world isn`t going to. You will only achieve contempt from the world for repeatedly trying to insults its intelligence.

Pakis always want to talk. You do something outrageous and then to save your lacerated arse ``lets hold talks.`` Remember Kargill, send your army over the border and then say ``lets talk.`` Well phuck you! Shut up and mend it. Shut down the terrorists or face the consequences.

HELP TO PREVENT WAR IN SOUTH ASIA

All who value peace and human life need to intervene and stop war in South Asia. India and Pakistan are poised to engage in such a misadventure as their respective troops and missiles (possibly nuclear) face each other on their border and on the Line of Control in Kashmir. This is happening while we in the United States are busy watching the news from neighboring Afghanistan.

People of Indian and Pakistani origin especially need to wake up to the reality of what kind of misery this conflict will produce. Our armchair warmongers of South Asian origin who now make their homes outside the region, in Europe, Canada and here in the United States need to get a large dose of reality.
Some Pakistanis are arranging a peace march at a Northern California venue (exact date and place to be decided) this week and urge all from the South Asian (aka “Desi”) Diaspora and their friends to protest against the possibility of war between India and Pakistan. I hope that Americans will join us and show solidarity with the pursuit of sanity in the region. Let us have a happy, peaceful and prosperous new year in a part of the world where the misery of poverty already rules the streets. Help us stop this looming war.


Ras H. Siddiqui

Dear Pakistanis

Today, I called my parents and some other relatives and was told that people have started digging bomb shelters and air raid rehearsals are fully in effect. The Janbaz Force and Civil Air Defence is in the process of being deployed. At this crucial moment there should be only one thought on our mind-PAKISTAN. Let us stand together in a single file today and forget for a while that this war is for Military Rulers-No this war is for our own survival and the survival of Pakistan. Please send as much financial aid to Pakistan as you can-Find out how it can be done at a place near you. Paksitanis at large metropolitan places like New York, Washington and California should arrange peaceful protests in front of Hindu embassies and consulates. Please use placards showing Hindu attrocities on innocent Kashmiri woman and children. Some people in Detroit are trying to arrange a protest in front of United Nations building as soon as possible. It is time to act and not to sit on your computers and armchairs. God has given us the bestest opportunity to free our brethren in Kashmir from Hindu oppression. The back of 700,000 Indian army in Indian Oppressed Kashmir is exposed. Their supply lines will be cut off by freedom fighters and our special forces as soon as the war starts. It is time to stand with your army, our army;there should be no us or them between us now. Together we can teach Hindus such a lesson which their coming generations will read on clay tablets.

People requesting peace (like myself), when the Indians are out for war will be ignored. However, I will make another attempt to logically prove that the path India is following is illogical and illegal, and could lead to nuclear conflict:

India is stating, through its actions, it is the perrogative of one country to unilaterally declare another country to be guilty in a crime, and move forces against it, without providing any proof to the second country, or to any of the international institutions like the UN or ICJ.

Lets assume the above to be legal and correct. This rule would then have to be applied to Pakistan, also, i.e. Pakistan then should also have the right to unilaterally declare India guilty, and declare war, without providing any proof to the second country, or to any of the international institutions like the UN or ICJ.

This means anytime there is a terrorist act of any kind in India or Pakistan, both now have the right to make demands on the other country, and declare war against the other country, without getting any international institution involved. If this is established as the norm, then India and Pakistan will be declaring war against each other every month, or so.

The other rule could be that India does have the perrogative to declare Pakistan guilty without providing any evidence to Pakistan or to any international organization, but Pakistan does not have that right. Why? Because India and Indians are superior to Pakistanis and are the virtue of truthfulness, fairness, integrity and human rights? While Pakistanis are generally crooks and evil? This is logic under which the current Indian actions are being carried out. And unfortunately, the Indian public has been brainwashed into accepting the above.

But lets go out on an unprecendented legal limb, and assume the above to be correct, i.e. India is a model of virtue, when it comes to Indo-Pak relations, while Pakistan is the always the guilty party and thus cannot enjoy the rights India enjoys. Under this case, India should then be the first to move to the UN and international institutions to expose Pakistan as its evil neighbor. While Pakistan should be going out of its way to keep everything bilateral by keeping the international organizations out of the conflict; lest these organizations prove Pakistan`s guilt. However, the ground situation is exactly the opposite. Pakistan is trying hard to involve the international organizations, and third party mediators, while India has openly declared everything will only be solved bilaterally. Why?

Another track is that since the US and Israel rarely rely on the UN to justify their national military actions, and can unilaterlly declare someone to be evil, and attack, India has that right also. If that is the case, the Pakistan should also be allowed to use the US and Israel (and now India) as a reference and unilaterally declare war on India, as well. By doing so, the UN will completely be taken out of conflicts, which will lead to constant war between India and Pakistan.

One more track is that the US and Israel (with US backing) have completely annihilated their opponetns after declaring them guilty. When US and Israel take their military actions, they accept the fact that their opponents can then take retaliatory action under the same precedence (i.e. declare the US and Israel guilty and militarily attack them). However, US and Israel chose opponents that are so weak (Palestine, Afghanistan) that the opponents cannot even reach US and Israel, much less attack them. And even against these opponents, the US and Israel first form a coalition of partners (Israel with the US, and the US with NATO). Pakistan, as stated by the Pakistani leaders, is neither Afghanistan nor Palestine. And India is definitely not the US nor Israel, nor does India have a coalition backing it.

Another track is that the US has, ``unofficially`` agreed to India`s current stance. This has neither been openly stated by the US, nor does it make any difference. The US cannot unilaterlly decide the legitimacy of its own actions, much less the actions of other countries. If that is the case, then the US has also stated and signed the statements asking for self-determination of Kashmiris (the core conflict). If Pakistan could get the buy-in from China, would that mean that Pakistan can attack India?

India and Pakistani regularly take actions to support instability in the each other`s country, whenever possible. The biggest example of this is East Pakistan, circa 1971. Kashmir is also an example, however according to the UN, it is disputed territory. The moment either country gets any solid evidence of the other country`s involvement, it goes out of its way to show it to everyone. One example is the phone call between Musharraf and Aziz. Why not do so now?

War threats from India could lead to a situation that can get out of control, leading to nuclear war. Indian supporters of war obviously have very little understanding of the dynamics of war, and very little understanding of international law. I would like to suggest, what I have always been suggesting:

- India backs off the war rhetoric and moves its troops off the borders. This will result in Pakistan doing the same.

- India take its, ``proof`` to the UN, and ask Pakistan to be prosecuted under the new UN resolutions on terrorism.

- The International Court of Justice is asked to give a decision, based on the proof.

- If Pakistan is found guilty, Pakistan is required by the ICJ to implement its decisions. If Pakistan is found innocent, then India accepts the result.

There is a very dangerous trend that is developing in Indo-Pak conflicts:

India took out the ICJ from Indo-Pak conflicts, during the recent Naval aircraft shootdown case. In essence, Pakistan can now use that as a precedence anytime it wants (like India did, when India felt it would be found guilty) and state that the ICJ has no authority to hear Indo-Pak cases. I doubt Pakistan would stoop to that level however, when it is itself calling for international institutions to get involved.

India has, by default, taken out the UN, from Indo-Pak conflicts (although I don`t know why India wants to join the Security Council, now), by stating that Indo-Pak conflicts need to be settled bilaterally.

India is now taking bilateralism out of the conflict also, and is stating that India can uniterally declare Pakistan to be guilty and attack it, without providing any evidence to Pakistan or to any international organization.

At the same time, India has initiated an arms race in India and Pakistan, that has led to both countries becoming nuclear (India`s new doctrine suggesting that nuclear weapons should be deployed from the air, sea and land; Pakistan will follow this, if India implements it).

So, the Sub-Continent is now at a stage where both countries are nuclearly armed, and due to the above-described precendents, each one (or at least India) now has the right to unitareally become judge and jury, and declare war, i.e. all legalities and peace-making bodies have been sidelined. This would not be so dangerous for India, if Pakistan could not destroy India. But it can.

The Sub-Continent is now in a state of MADness, with all the in-built safe keeping organizations slowly being sidelined by India. India needs to realize that Pakistan can apply the above rules to India also. What if Pakistan flatly refuses to do anything? After all, if India can ignore Pakistan, the Security Council, the ICJ etc., then the least Pakistan can do is ignore India. And the US is not going to agree to pressurize Pakistan, as much as it did earlier for India (the US has now made a policy decision, that it will not be on the bad side of Pakistan). Is India ready to then attack Pakistan? If yes, then is India willing to fight through a nuclear conflict? If the answers to either of the above two questions is, ``No,`` then India needs to cut its current rhetoric.

When millions of troops are deployed, they theoretically are controlled by a central authority. However, in reality, power and decision making is greatly decentralized to the local commanders. This means there are hundreds, if not thousands, of local commanders, who can make a wrong decision, and start a conflict. Indians need to start utilizing the international organizations to solve conflicts with Pakistan. If their govt. is unwilling to do that, then Indians need to understand that their govts. stance is not as noble and rightenus, as they are being brainwashed into believing. They also need to realize while they accuse Pakistan of being run by religious extremists, it is actually their own country which is being run by a religiously extremist party. Religious extremists tend to have a very black and white view of the world. Once they are convinced they are correct, they tend to disregard all international organizations, and risk death. Infact this is exactly what Indians accuse the Pakistani religious groups of doing. How can the Indians then vote India`s own equivalent of Jamiat-Ulema-Islam (BJP) into power again and again. Are India`s religiously extremist parties also more noble and righteous than Pakistan`s religioul extremist parties? While the BJP leaders may want an all-out war to occur (in their extremist black and while view of the world), is this really what every Indian wants?

Having seen weaponry and military deaths far closer than most of hawkish and peace-hating Indians (and one or two odd Pakistanis, who will happily risk nuclear war, as long as their own political objectives within Pakistan are achieved) who reguarly attack me, the moment I mention the words UN and ICJ and self-determination, I would suggest that India back off its war efforts, and take its complains to the UN, peacefully. As a friend once adivsed me, ``If you know you are on the right path, then you should not be afriad of the consequences.`` If India knows it has the noble and correct stance on Indo-Pak conflicts, it should be bringing in other groups, and not attempting to sideline them.

I have not stated either Pakistan (or India) is innocent or guilty. What I am strongly opposed to is one country being given the right to become judge, jury and executioner. This will result in a nuclear conflict, sooner or later. One can only go to the brink of war and back off successfully, so many times. Indians need to accept the fact that while Pakistan is influenced by religious extremist parties, India is being run by one.

As the year 2001 draws to an end, here is something to think about for South Asians coming to the US, or indeed for any people living in any civilized country. I dont necessarily recommend selling off your house to buy a parade float to express your thanks, but greater appreciation of the benefits one enjoys in a society that has been developed over several generations, would not be out of place as the year 2001 draws to an end. There is no shortage of pseudo-intellectuals in South Asia to do fault-finding. Any fool can be a cynic. It needs character to be able to appreciate. And this Vietnamese immigrant has demonstrated the kind of character we need if we are to leave behind a more pleasant world for the next generation.

``Refugee sells home, buys parade float

December 29, 2001 Posted: 5:58 AM EST (1058 GMT)

Lai`s float will carry the message: ``Thank you America and the world.``

PASADENA, California (AP) -- In the years since Madalenna Lai boarded a wooden boat and fled communist-led Vietnam, she has wanted to say ``thank you`` to the Americans who helped her build a new life in the United States.

On New Year`s Day, she will get her wish in one of the country`s most-watched events, the Tournament of Roses Parade.

It has taken eight years, and she had to sell her house to raise the $100,000 to do it, but when the parade`s 52 floats start through Pasadena, Lai`s will be among them.

Her 35-foot long, 18-feet wide float will carry a simple message: ``Thank you America and the world.``

Aboard the float, ``Lac viet,`` a mystical bird, rises from the bow of a boat much like those that carried thousands of Vietnamese away from their war ravaged country. Other ramshackle boats rest beneath, decorated with yellow straw flower, seeds, rice, walnut shells, mums and roses.

Six survivors of the Vietnam war and the mayor of Pomona will ride on the float, officially sponsored by the Vietnamese Cultural House, a nonprofit help agency Lai founded in 1996.

Lai, 59, said she has wanted to enter a float since she first saw the parade on television in 1977.

She had arrived in the United States two years earlier with her four young children. Her husband, Quang Thanh Nguyen, stayed behind with fellow police officers to fight North Vietnamese troops. It would be 15 years before Lai would learn whether he had survived.

After Lai and her children reached U.S. soil, an American family in Pennsylvania took them in for two years. Lai later moved her family to Pasadena, where they lived on welfare for a year while Lai got her footing in her new country. She eventually started two beauty shops, then opened a cosmetology school in Pomona.

In 1990, she was reunited with her husband, who she learned had been jailed in Vietnam for a decade.

``The United States opened her arms to me and my children. We no longer went hungry and my kids received a good education,`` Lai said Friday. ``I told myself after my children finished school and I reunited with my husband, I would give my life to thank America.``

She started that quest in 1996. She acquired a fishing boat that carried several Vietnamese refugees to the Philippines, then organized a national tour for the boat.

As she worked on her plans for the Rose parade float, though, tougher economic times sent business at her beauty salons down. She had little time to raise money, so she sold her house to raise the $100,000 fee to have the float designed and built.

``We have children, we can always live in their houses,`` Lai`s husband said of the decision to sell the home. But they didn`t have to -- their youngest daughter, Trang Thu Nguyen, bought them a house in Pomona.

The Rose Bowl football game will be held on January 3 this year, rather than following the parade as usual. The University of Miami and the University of Nebraska are scheduled to play

Musharaff seems to have taken into custody 50 members of the jehadi groups in Pakistan. A very good move. Next step: hand them over to India, after getting Indians to agree that these men will get an open and fair trial in India, and in turn to also help dig out evidence against these men in Pakistan. If they are found to have broken Pakistani laws as well, then they could be punished under both Indian law and under Pakistani law as well (I wonder how that works legally). It would have been a tragedy if the two countries had gone to war over these criminals who are a bigger threat to Pakistan than they are to India.

Urstruly #86

Here comes the geostrategy champ

Remaining signs of sense

On this board

To now please decamp

re Field Marshal ROmair #159:

Aetzaz Ahsan is not the messiah Pakistan is looking for. As for his not being embroiled in any financial scandal, there are many reasons. Chief amongst them are his relationships by marriage of his young ones(Harvard,McGill BTW) to a couple of very influential (ex)-Generals and bureaucrats. Add to that the fact his legal expertise is available to any scoundrel willing to pay his six/seven figure fee (you know guys like ex-Navy chief Admiral Mansurul Haq and steel mills curators Salman and Usman Fs) and he`s more trouble NAB probably wants to deal with right now. He knows where all the troublesome bodies are buried.

Sure he went to Cambridge and sure he topped the civil services exam. But the FM has no idea how feudal his background really is. I couldn`t stop laughing at the irony of someone proclaiming ``feduals living off the sweat of little children`` recommending one of the same as the future leader of the PPP. Long live the Field Marshal!!!!!!!!!!!!

Capt(Retd.) Haleem Siddiqui had a fun time in Nawaz Sharif`s time as his net worth probably quadrupled during that time. Once again he hasn`t been touched on account of his *services * rendered during the Nawaz era. Capt. Siddiqui was one of the leading go-betweens(alongwith Hamid Nawaz Chattha) between Nawaz Sharif and the Army generals. Now even the conqueror of its own people does have some respect for tradition doesn`t it?

later

-sac

Could some of our Indian friends let us know when the Uttar Pradesh elections are being held, and when they will be over.

The Indian war rhetoric will probably last till then. And then hopefully it will die down.

For those of you who dont` believe me:

``India-Pakistan row underlines nuke safety failing

By Sanjeev Miglani

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - A scenario devised as a model by the U.S. Naval War College ends with India and Pakistan in a limited nuclear exchange in which millions of people die after tension over bitterly disputed Kashmir boils over.

The simulation was conducted soon after the neighbours carried out nuclear tests in 1998, but the scenario is chillingly similar to the current threat of war over anti-Indian Kashmiri separatists operating from Pakistan.....

In the simulation, India, blaming Pakistan for the downing of a plane carrying top ministers and military brass over Indian-ruled Kashmir, launches air and artillery strikes on guerrilla bases inside Pakistan-ruled Kashmir.

Pakistan responds with conventional forces, but fear of India`s superiority in that area prompt it to launch a nuclear strike, triggering nuclear retaliation from New Delhi and killing more than two million people.

When? The scenario was set in 2003.....

The lack of any safety mechanisms to prevent an accidental exchange of nuclear weapons or a miscalculation by leaders of either nation has been a concern since they crossed the nuclear Rubicon.

Hopes of any progress on reducing the nuclear risk have now faded after Vajpayee said he would not hold one-on-one talks with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf during a summit of regional leaders in the Nepali capital, Kathmandu, next week.....

The only thing known about India`s secretive nuclear system is that the button lies in the hands of the prime minister. There is also a cabinet committee on security including the defence and foreign ministers which would presumably be consulted before any deployment.

But beyond that nothing is known about the nuclear chain of command which will carry out the government`s orders. The role of the military, which was kept out of the nuclear weapons programme from the start, remains unclear.

``The virtual non-involvement of the armed forces in the country`s nuclear weapons programme has undermined the credibility of India`s nuclear deterrent and raised doubts about the security of nuclear weapons,`` wrote nuclear expert Gurmeet Kanwal in the Strategic Analysis, a publication of the government-funded Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Pakistan, whose nuclear programme caused concern in the early stages of the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan, has in contrast established a Nuclear Command and Control Authority consisting of military, political and scientific officials (complete article at http://www.reuters.co.uk/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=480727)

If the above described scenario does pan out, I would be interested in finding out how our Indian friends, who are jumping up and down and calling for war, plan to counter it? Do they even understsand it?

All those interested in military strategy, like myself, may want to read a book by Indian author Ravi Rikhye, titled, ``The fourth round.`` No it is not about Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif (that book is titled, CTBT: Choti Tind, Bari Tind) or their fourth youngest brother,with a similar round head.

It is a book written in 1984, about a future war between India and Pakistan. Interesting stuff, though a bit out of date in the nuclear times. Rikhye writes, ```The next Indo-Pakistan war is likely to be longer, more intense, more costly and more brutal than any earlier one, with the exception of the 1947-48 limited war which holds the record for duration.``

Pakistan and India have reached the state of MADness. They have achieved Mutual Assured Destruction. This was a concept adapted by Robert McNamara of Kennedy fame, in 1967. It means both countries have assured that they will be destroyed mutually, and cannot be destroyed unilaterally (hum to doobay hi sanam, tum ko bhi lay dobain gay). This was the cornerstone of the USA/USSR conflict. Even now, Russia and the US are in a state of MADness.

The only difference is that the USA and USSR spent decades building sophisticated systems and more importantly, sophisticated doctrines to maintain a sensible level of MADness. In the US, there are branches of the Air Force called Space Command and Missile Command. The missiliers spend more time building command and control systems, than building the actual missile systems. There are mutual hotlines, and detection systems. NORAD in the Cheyenne Mountains is the most sophisticated monitoring and detection station, ever built by mankind.

The US officers are taught space systems, missile control and nuclear doctrines, etc. from their cadet days onwards. By the time these guys become Generals, they are as familiar with nuclear missiles and protocols as Pakistani and Indian Generals are with airplanes and tanks. They repeatedly practice nuclear battle scenarios in wargames, etc.

Indians and Pakistanis are new to this game. They have just learnt to build these nukes and launch them. They have yet to establish training commands, sophisticated command and control structures, etc. An Indian or Pakistani officer maybe able to handle a machine gun and a fighter better than his American counterpart, but he does not know nuke from puke. It is like a new toy in the hands of inexperienced (in nuclear terms) decision makers.

If the death of 12 people can lead to the most vast movement of troops in thirty years. Then just imagine what the death of 112 people could lead to. In war, things spiral out of control quickly, specially when people are using technologies they are not trained on. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it is difficult to get him back in. And India is flirting a bit too much, for its own good, with the bottlecork.

Indians need to cut the war rhetoric and accept the MAD scenario. They need to talk to Pakistan, and realize that Pakistan has a lot of complains against them also, yet it is still willing to talk. And if they really want to embarass Pakistan, they need to open up Kashmir, and show the rest of the world who is doing what to whom there. Why not do that, instead of crying war and terrorism?

I have worked with a lot of Pakistani Generals. And the thing that scares me the most about them is not their cowardness, but their irrational bravery. The problem with them is not that they are afraid of India. The problem is they are not afraid at all of India; a country seven times Pakistans` size. Musharraf has kept a cool head so far; that is probably the Muhajir in him. But if he starts the rhetoric on the Pakistani side also, just like it is going on in the Indian side, then what will happen?

Indians need to get the term MAD into their heads. There is no way, now, for India to militarily destroy Pakistan, without getting destroyed itself. So what advantage does India get by starting an all out war? And you need to also keep in mind, India`s threats do not scare Pakistanis, they tend to make them more stubborn.

India is putting itself into a corner. If it backs out of this war rhetoric, it will be embarassed. If it continues with it, it will achieve MADness. It should stop its rhetoric, go to the UN or other international forums, and display to the rest of the world everything it has against Pakistan, in Kashmir and otherwise. If it is unwilling or unable to do that, then it needs to realize and accept the flaws in its own argument and logic.