anNy April 26, 2002
#285 Posted by harimau on May 16, 2002 10:08:54 am
Ref nasah #: 283
[Dear Harimau:
Please -- your ``satire`` is getting graphically uglier by the day -- it does not have to smell like burning human flesh -- as well -- don`t u think?]
I was trying to point out to Urstruly that his imagination is running wild.
By the way, if people in Bombay are not very exercised over what is happening in their backyard, why are we in cyberspace?
Aside: The student who came first in Medical College Entrance Exam in Tamil Nadu is one Hidaya Fathima. Score one for modern-thinking Muslim women and zero for the Bearded Fundos.
Aside 2: Our driver`s (the Muslim one) daughter has scored 96% average in her Standard X exams. We are going to pay for her education through college. Make that score 2 for modern Muslim women. I am hoping she will study medicine in another two years.
[Dear Harimau:
Please -- your ``satire`` is getting graphically uglier by the day -- it does not have to smell like burning human flesh -- as well -- don`t u think?]
I was trying to point out to Urstruly that his imagination is running wild.
By the way, if people in Bombay are not very exercised over what is happening in their backyard, why are we in cyberspace?
Aside: The student who came first in Medical College Entrance Exam in Tamil Nadu is one Hidaya Fathima. Score one for modern-thinking Muslim women and zero for the Bearded Fundos.
Aside 2: Our driver`s (the Muslim one) daughter has scored 96% average in her Standard X exams. We are going to pay for her education through college. Make that score 2 for modern Muslim women. I am hoping she will study medicine in another two years.
#283 Posted by anNy on May 15, 2002 1:13:01 am
Syed ahmad
youd be surprised..there are annys all over the place..i know more than 20, two who even share one of my many last names..engaged? abhi tau merae wild honae kae din hain..but i think i was at that same engagement...very pretty, well mannered larki and woodywoodpecker lookin boy?
tamiur
hallo sweetie..kahan gayeb? was that your urgent sms a few days ago? recieved jusuut before went in to give exam...i couldnt stop giggling..syed ahmed had a lotta people going hysterical..;)
tahmedsaab, godot
i posted that bit because it made so much sense to me instantly..it just struck...i mean how hard can it be? make us a nation, enlighten us, bring us together, let us love, make us better than what we are, give us a chance man- we ask nothing more
dostmittar
sorry took so long, exams all over me...there have thank god not been any reprisals against hindus yet..there was a whole thing on sikh gurdawars is it? in pakistan in one weekly magazine..it highlighted the small sikh community in the country and with the very interesting text had some really nice pictures of the various places of sikh worship as well as males with the kirpan and in the turban (dyou wear it?) and ladies all dressed up eating from the langer etc...i have it saved, if we ever meet, i will give it to you
:)
anNy
youd be surprised..there are annys all over the place..i know more than 20, two who even share one of my many last names..engaged? abhi tau merae wild honae kae din hain..but i think i was at that same engagement...very pretty, well mannered larki and woodywoodpecker lookin boy?
tamiur
hallo sweetie..kahan gayeb? was that your urgent sms a few days ago? recieved jusuut before went in to give exam...i couldnt stop giggling..syed ahmed had a lotta people going hysterical..;)
tahmedsaab, godot
i posted that bit because it made so much sense to me instantly..it just struck...i mean how hard can it be? make us a nation, enlighten us, bring us together, let us love, make us better than what we are, give us a chance man- we ask nothing more
dostmittar
sorry took so long, exams all over me...there have thank god not been any reprisals against hindus yet..there was a whole thing on sikh gurdawars is it? in pakistan in one weekly magazine..it highlighted the small sikh community in the country and with the very interesting text had some really nice pictures of the various places of sikh worship as well as males with the kirpan and in the turban (dyou wear it?) and ladies all dressed up eating from the langer etc...i have it saved, if we ever meet, i will give it to you
:)
anNy
#282 Posted by Umer Murtaza on May 13, 2002 12:41:16 pm
Anny`s next instalment…
`The Big Breakfast,` (where Anny discusses the political fat cats)
Followed by…
`My Little Breakfast,` (where Anny discusses the political underdogs)
and then…
`Chholé Puri` (The lifestyle of the poor average Pak)
`Halwa Puri,` (What the feudal folk are)
`Samosa and daal` (don`t ask)
`Tea and coffee.` (How the colonial mentality pervades amongst us)
And finally…
`Antacids.` (The people who write political speeches for the leaders of Pakistan-witty that innit?)
Only kidding, matey. Just having a larf;)
UM
`The Big Breakfast,` (where Anny discusses the political fat cats)
Followed by…
`My Little Breakfast,` (where Anny discusses the political underdogs)
and then…
`Chholé Puri` (The lifestyle of the poor average Pak)
`Halwa Puri,` (What the feudal folk are)
`Samosa and daal` (don`t ask)
`Tea and coffee.` (How the colonial mentality pervades amongst us)
And finally…
`Antacids.` (The people who write political speeches for the leaders of Pakistan-witty that innit?)
Only kidding, matey. Just having a larf;)
UM
#281 Posted by nasah on May 12, 2002 12:56:06 pm
Dear Harimau:
Please -- your ``satire`` is getting graphically uglier by the day -- it does not have to smell like burning human flesh -- as well -- don`t u think?
Please -- your ``satire`` is getting graphically uglier by the day -- it does not have to smell like burning human flesh -- as well -- don`t u think?
#280 Posted by nasah on May 12, 2002 12:56:06 pm
Is this true -- folks?
Pak planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report
LONDON: Pakistan army had mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the Kargil war in 1999,
________________________________________________
without the knowledge of its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, -- The Sunday Times reported on Sunday
______
quoting a senior White House adviser at that time.(ST)
And -- the Same ``SANE`` Strategy ``Savant`` -- who is now all three -- the COAS/the Prime minister/the President -- is NOW 100% in charge of the country!!!
Pak planned to nuke India during Kargil: Report
LONDON: Pakistan army had mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the Kargil war in 1999,
________________________________________________
without the knowledge of its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, -- The Sunday Times reported on Sunday
______
quoting a senior White House adviser at that time.(ST)
And -- the Same ``SANE`` Strategy ``Savant`` -- who is now all three -- the COAS/the Prime minister/the President -- is NOW 100% in charge of the country!!!
#279 Posted by cutandpaste on May 12, 2002 12:56:06 pm
Pakistan made preparations for nuclear strike on India
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,178-293770,00.html
Sunday Times, UK
LONDON: Pakistan army had mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the Kargil war in 1999, without the knowledge of its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday quoting a senior White House adviser at that time.
In a paper to be published shortly by the University of Pennsylvania, Bruce Riedel, who was a senior adviser to then US President Bill Clinton on India and Pakistan, recalls how the president was told that he faced the most important foreign policy meeting of his career.
``There was disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear arsenal,`` Riedel writes.
According to the report, Riedel and other aides feared that India and Pakistan were heading for a ``deadly descent into full—scale conflict, with a danger of nuclear cataclysm``. They were also concerned about Osama Bin Laden`s growing influence in the region.
Intelligence experts had told Riedel that the flight times of missiles fired by either side would be as little as three minutes and that ``a Pakistani strike on just one Indian city, Mumbai, would kill between 150,000 and 850,000 alone``.
Riedel, the newspaper said, told Clinton not to reveal his intelligence hand in the opening talks with Sharif, in which the president handed the premier a cartoon that showed Pakistan and India firing nuclear missiles at one another.
But in a second discussion, at which Riedel was the only other person present, ``Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was. Did Sharif know his military was preparing their missiles?`` he writes.
While Clinton reminded Sharif how close the US and Soviet Union had come to nuclear war in 1962 over Cuba, Sharif agreed it would be a catastrophe even if a single bomb was dropped.
Riedel does not state in the paper how the Americans gathered their intelligence, nor what the mobilisation entailed. But John Pike, Director of the Washington—based Global Security organisation, said intelligence channels could have become aware of the trucks that carry Pakistan`s nuclear missiles being moved from their bases at Sargodha, near Rawalpindi.
``One scenario is that missile trucks were picked up parked in a convoy,`` he said.
Clinton drove home the advantage that the intelligence coup had given him, Riedel recalls. ``Did Sharif order the Pakistani nuclear missile force to prepare for action,`` the prime minister was asked. ``Did he realise how crazy that was?``
Riedel describes how an ``exhausted`` Sharif ``denied he had ordered the preparation and said he was against that, but worried for his life back in Pakistan``.
Soon afterwards Sharif, who now lives in exile in Saudi Arabia, signed a document agreeing to pull back his forces from Kargil.
If, as Riedel implies, Sharif was kept in the dark about his nuclear programme, he suffered a similar embarrassment to that of his predecessor, Benazir Bhutto, who is said to have asked the CIA for a briefing on Islamabad`s nuclear capability because that privilege was denied to her by her own generals.
According to the newspaper, a recent report by the CIA, Global Trends 2015, predicts that the threat of nuclear war will remain a serious regional issue for the next 15 years.
By next year Pakistan is thought likely to have between 50 and 75 nuclear warheads, while India will have between 75 and 100, the report said.
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,178-293770,00.html
Sunday Times, UK
LONDON: Pakistan army had mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the Kargil war in 1999, without the knowledge of its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday quoting a senior White House adviser at that time.
In a paper to be published shortly by the University of Pennsylvania, Bruce Riedel, who was a senior adviser to then US President Bill Clinton on India and Pakistan, recalls how the president was told that he faced the most important foreign policy meeting of his career.
``There was disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear arsenal,`` Riedel writes.
According to the report, Riedel and other aides feared that India and Pakistan were heading for a ``deadly descent into full—scale conflict, with a danger of nuclear cataclysm``. They were also concerned about Osama Bin Laden`s growing influence in the region.
Intelligence experts had told Riedel that the flight times of missiles fired by either side would be as little as three minutes and that ``a Pakistani strike on just one Indian city, Mumbai, would kill between 150,000 and 850,000 alone``.
Riedel, the newspaper said, told Clinton not to reveal his intelligence hand in the opening talks with Sharif, in which the president handed the premier a cartoon that showed Pakistan and India firing nuclear missiles at one another.
But in a second discussion, at which Riedel was the only other person present, ``Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was. Did Sharif know his military was preparing their missiles?`` he writes.
While Clinton reminded Sharif how close the US and Soviet Union had come to nuclear war in 1962 over Cuba, Sharif agreed it would be a catastrophe even if a single bomb was dropped.
Riedel does not state in the paper how the Americans gathered their intelligence, nor what the mobilisation entailed. But John Pike, Director of the Washington—based Global Security organisation, said intelligence channels could have become aware of the trucks that carry Pakistan`s nuclear missiles being moved from their bases at Sargodha, near Rawalpindi.
``One scenario is that missile trucks were picked up parked in a convoy,`` he said.
Clinton drove home the advantage that the intelligence coup had given him, Riedel recalls. ``Did Sharif order the Pakistani nuclear missile force to prepare for action,`` the prime minister was asked. ``Did he realise how crazy that was?``
Riedel describes how an ``exhausted`` Sharif ``denied he had ordered the preparation and said he was against that, but worried for his life back in Pakistan``.
Soon afterwards Sharif, who now lives in exile in Saudi Arabia, signed a document agreeing to pull back his forces from Kargil.
If, as Riedel implies, Sharif was kept in the dark about his nuclear programme, he suffered a similar embarrassment to that of his predecessor, Benazir Bhutto, who is said to have asked the CIA for a briefing on Islamabad`s nuclear capability because that privilege was denied to her by her own generals.
According to the newspaper, a recent report by the CIA, Global Trends 2015, predicts that the threat of nuclear war will remain a serious regional issue for the next 15 years.
By next year Pakistan is thought likely to have between 50 and 75 nuclear warheads, while India will have between 75 and 100, the report said.
#278 Posted by harimau on May 12, 2002 1:30:31 am
Ref harimau #: 249
[Ref Urstruly #: 222
[Kamal Hassan
Guys what happened to this kamla aasan guy. I havent been following this thread. Is he a mulsim? has he been fried yet? Are there any plans to fry him and his family Jay? what has he done?]
Nope. Nobody has fried Kamal Hasan.]]
Urstruly, I seem to have spoken too soon when I said nobody has fried kamal Hasan. He got his tail singed, of all the places, at the Toronto airport. It seems he was trying to board a plane to LA. He was sporting a goatee and just like you, the Immigration guys mistook his name for a Muslim. So he was pulled off and questioned thoroughly.
Anyway, I landed in Bombay Thursday night. As I was being driven home at 8:30pm, we passed through Andheri East. I saw a Muslim man walking without any apparent concern along the road. Soon I spotted a few more Muslim men, all in their characteric dress and skullcaps. I spotted Umer Ahmad`s building supply store containing a lot of bamboo poles and other flammable material. The Muslim men were quite unconcerned about what might happen to them what with so much material for making a fire rather freely available. I also saw 7 women in Muslim dress walking unconcerned that the Hindu beasts might rape them. Then I noticed that about 70% of the establishments had Muslim names on their signboards, indicating this particular area has a lot of Muslims. But that didn`t seem to concern the Hindu males and females who were also walking along the streets. Sheesh, even I felt quite safe there. So you might want to give up your notions about there being street-corner barbecues and al fresco dining in India despite the recent unpleasantness in Gujarat. In fact when I drove by two days later, Umer Ahmad was still in business along with all other folks in the building supply trade there.
By the way, the Bombay High Court has decreed that no Muslim male`s statement that he has divorced his wife is acceptable and that any divorce must be registered with the local civil courts. Of course, the members of the Muslim Personal Law Board in India (all bearded to the regulation length) are up in arms against this because this goes against the Shariah. You know, a lot of Indians are thinking that the Indian judiciary might come to the help of Indian Muslims but it doesn`t look like that. The Indian judiciary seems to want to thrust modernity down the throat of Indian Muslims.
Now if only there was no doctrine of khatm-e-nabuwwat, there might be a new prophet who might re-affirm the Shariah but again, as usual, you guys have sealed your fate with your lack of foresight. Sigh......
[Ref Urstruly #: 222
[Kamal Hassan
Guys what happened to this kamla aasan guy. I havent been following this thread. Is he a mulsim? has he been fried yet? Are there any plans to fry him and his family Jay? what has he done?]
Nope. Nobody has fried Kamal Hasan.]]
Urstruly, I seem to have spoken too soon when I said nobody has fried kamal Hasan. He got his tail singed, of all the places, at the Toronto airport. It seems he was trying to board a plane to LA. He was sporting a goatee and just like you, the Immigration guys mistook his name for a Muslim. So he was pulled off and questioned thoroughly.
Anyway, I landed in Bombay Thursday night. As I was being driven home at 8:30pm, we passed through Andheri East. I saw a Muslim man walking without any apparent concern along the road. Soon I spotted a few more Muslim men, all in their characteric dress and skullcaps. I spotted Umer Ahmad`s building supply store containing a lot of bamboo poles and other flammable material. The Muslim men were quite unconcerned about what might happen to them what with so much material for making a fire rather freely available. I also saw 7 women in Muslim dress walking unconcerned that the Hindu beasts might rape them. Then I noticed that about 70% of the establishments had Muslim names on their signboards, indicating this particular area has a lot of Muslims. But that didn`t seem to concern the Hindu males and females who were also walking along the streets. Sheesh, even I felt quite safe there. So you might want to give up your notions about there being street-corner barbecues and al fresco dining in India despite the recent unpleasantness in Gujarat. In fact when I drove by two days later, Umer Ahmad was still in business along with all other folks in the building supply trade there.
By the way, the Bombay High Court has decreed that no Muslim male`s statement that he has divorced his wife is acceptable and that any divorce must be registered with the local civil courts. Of course, the members of the Muslim Personal Law Board in India (all bearded to the regulation length) are up in arms against this because this goes against the Shariah. You know, a lot of Indians are thinking that the Indian judiciary might come to the help of Indian Muslims but it doesn`t look like that. The Indian judiciary seems to want to thrust modernity down the throat of Indian Muslims.
Now if only there was no doctrine of khatm-e-nabuwwat, there might be a new prophet who might re-affirm the Shariah but again, as usual, you guys have sealed your fate with your lack of foresight. Sigh......
#277 Posted by Chunkey Pandey on May 12, 2002 1:30:31 am
AnNy #263
``.....Make us Rich. We are tired of being poor. Do whatever you need to do to make us rich? copy the Koreans, copy the Japanese. We don`t want Roti, Kapra, Makaan. We want Savings, Education and Entertainment....``
Let the poor speak for themselves.Yes for Rich like you ...Entertainment C.D. DVD,Internet ,Cellphone,Pagers,Dance (Kermani) Socialism(tariq Ali) Imran Khan (Jew Wife) ....etc are the priorities
You dont want Roti b/c its bad for you to eat more .You dont want Kapra b/c you have enough ... its no big deal& Makaan you have to house half of your neighbourhood but you have only 4 who luve in it .
Musharaff is also from your class .If you are working to replace him with a Muslim scholar .Teacher ,Lower middleclass social activist or worker ,then by all means remove Musharaff but you only have another Musharaff & your class to replace with Imran Khan or Asghar Khan Or Tariq Ali Or some another Feudal ZADA /ZADI .
#276 Posted by tahmed321 on May 11, 2002 6:35:28 pm
AlephNull #245 Thanks for the clarification. The philospher in question was indeed Diogenes from Yunan (Greece). I looked up the internet on him, and seems like he was quite a character, and was also known as Diogenes the cynic (cynic being Greek for ``dog``). He did happen to be spending his time in a bathtub of some kind (a barrel perhaps, as you say) when Alexander came to visit him only to be told to stop blocking the sun.
Another thing he said that is relevant in today`s Pakistan: When asked what kind of bite was the worst, Diogenes replied that it was the bite of the flatterer. I wonder how long Musharaff is able to keep his mind clear before succumbing completely to the chachas` bite which he probably receives regularly nowadays. We will know if and when that bite has had its full effect when the lights start getting switched off in the offices of offending newspapers in Pakistan.
Another thing he said that is relevant in today`s Pakistan: When asked what kind of bite was the worst, Diogenes replied that it was the bite of the flatterer. I wonder how long Musharaff is able to keep his mind clear before succumbing completely to the chachas` bite which he probably receives regularly nowadays. We will know if and when that bite has had its full effect when the lights start getting switched off in the offices of offending newspapers in Pakistan.
#275 Posted by nasah on May 11, 2002 6:35:28 pm
In his latest column Ayaz Amir says:
“”After the historic referendum the political scene has shifted and is no longer putty or French plaster in General Musharraf`s hands. His cohorts could not manage a one-sided referendum. How will they manage a contentious and contested general election? One, moreover, likely to be dominated by the hated spectres of the PPP and the Nawaz League.
In a world not driven by paranoia or megalomania, a fiasco such as the referendum would call for a re-examination of priorities.
But nothing of the sort is occurring in Islamabad.
Far from sounding chastened, the general has spoken of a permanent political role for the armed forces while his trumpeters, Memon in the lead, continue to insist upon the transparency and fairness of the referendum.
__________________________________________________
They are even saying the coming elections would be as transparent as the referendum (oh, boy) - which is meant as an affirmation of good faith but sounds more like a threat.
__________________________________________________
In any case, the choices on offer are stark. The original theory was built on Gen Musharraf`s popularity:
``People tell me that I am very popular. I thought if I am really popular, I must go to the people.``
These are verbatim Musharraf quotes from an ARY interview.
On the coattails of his popularity the right sort of parliament would be elected in October. But the referendum has cast these happy forecasts into doubt. In its aftermath how can ``positive results`` be ensured?
Tongas on their own can`t do it. Nor can the patched-up quilt of a Quisling League deliver the kind of vote the general is banking upon.
Thus barring wholesale disqualifications or massive rigging, the military government is left holding the strings of an uncertain future.
Of course it can do the right thing by holding proper elections without regard to the outcome.
But this is hoping for the moon.
If such good sense could prevail in Pakistan we wouldn`t be in the mess we find ourselves in.(Dawn)
“”After the historic referendum the political scene has shifted and is no longer putty or French plaster in General Musharraf`s hands. His cohorts could not manage a one-sided referendum. How will they manage a contentious and contested general election? One, moreover, likely to be dominated by the hated spectres of the PPP and the Nawaz League.
In a world not driven by paranoia or megalomania, a fiasco such as the referendum would call for a re-examination of priorities.
But nothing of the sort is occurring in Islamabad.
Far from sounding chastened, the general has spoken of a permanent political role for the armed forces while his trumpeters, Memon in the lead, continue to insist upon the transparency and fairness of the referendum.
__________________________________________________
They are even saying the coming elections would be as transparent as the referendum (oh, boy) - which is meant as an affirmation of good faith but sounds more like a threat.
__________________________________________________
In any case, the choices on offer are stark. The original theory was built on Gen Musharraf`s popularity:
``People tell me that I am very popular. I thought if I am really popular, I must go to the people.``
These are verbatim Musharraf quotes from an ARY interview.
On the coattails of his popularity the right sort of parliament would be elected in October. But the referendum has cast these happy forecasts into doubt. In its aftermath how can ``positive results`` be ensured?
Tongas on their own can`t do it. Nor can the patched-up quilt of a Quisling League deliver the kind of vote the general is banking upon.
Thus barring wholesale disqualifications or massive rigging, the military government is left holding the strings of an uncertain future.
Of course it can do the right thing by holding proper elections without regard to the outcome.
But this is hoping for the moon.
If such good sense could prevail in Pakistan we wouldn`t be in the mess we find ourselves in.(Dawn)
#273 Posted by AlephNull on May 10, 2002 11:45:25 pm
tahmed321 #270
{I have only one request for Musharaff. The same request that some famous Egyptian philosopher (I forget his name) had when Alexander the Great, after conquering Egypt, grandly asked him if there was anything he, Alexander, could do for him. ``Yes, you can``, was the reply, ``You can step aside. You are blocking the sun.`` (presumably it was wintertime in Egypt at the time).}
Tahmed sahab, you have your anecdote slightly garbled. The philosopher in question was Diogenes the Cynic, the bloke who lived in a barrel (hence the blocking of light); and the man was from Yunan, not Misr. But your request for Musharraf is spot on.
{I have only one request for Musharaff. The same request that some famous Egyptian philosopher (I forget his name) had when Alexander the Great, after conquering Egypt, grandly asked him if there was anything he, Alexander, could do for him. ``Yes, you can``, was the reply, ``You can step aside. You are blocking the sun.`` (presumably it was wintertime in Egypt at the time).}
Tahmed sahab, you have your anecdote slightly garbled. The philosopher in question was Diogenes the Cynic, the bloke who lived in a barrel (hence the blocking of light); and the man was from Yunan, not Misr. But your request for Musharraf is spot on.
#272 Posted by tahmed321 on May 10, 2002 2:54:00 pm
Cowasjee writes about Musharaff: ``Those capable of thought have no option but to clutch at straws. It would be a tragedy for this nation were the general to turn out to be a man of straw.`` Mixed metophors, Referendum Rulers and Gyrating Journalists can ruin you breakfast, lunch and dinner.
#271 Posted by tahmed321 on May 10, 2002 2:54:00 pm
saminashah #265 I dont think much of Tariq Ali`s views. He came to prominence in the 1960`s when he was elected head of the Oxford University student`s union and introduced a debate on ``This house will not fight for Queen and country``. After that it has been downhill, and his views are no more mature than that of certain chowk poster. In the 40 years since, he has contributed not one thing to any cause, and merely repeats the inance anti-west rhetoric that passes any madrassah trained student could do.
The title of the newspaper he once started (``The Black Dwarf`` I think it was) pretty much sums up the stature of this thinking.
The title of the newspaper he once started (``The Black Dwarf`` I think it was) pretty much sums up the stature of this thinking.
#270 Posted by tahmed321 on May 10, 2002 2:54:00 pm
anNy #263 I have only one request for Musharaff. The same request that some famous Egyptian philosopher (I forget his name) had when Alexander the Great, after conquering Egypt, grandly asked him if there was anything he, Alexander, could do for him. ``Yes, you can``, was the reply, ``You can step aside. You are blocking the sun.`` (presumably it was wintertime in Egypt at the time).
#269 Posted by tahmed321 on May 10, 2002 2:54:00 pm
Nasah #266 That was a great letter that you re-posted on chowk.
#268 Posted by cutandpaste on May 10, 2002 2:54:00 pm
The Kashmir Time Bomb
http://www.sulekha.com/redirectnh.asp?cid=198954
By David Ignatius
Friday, May 10, 2002; Page A37
Sometime this month, the Indian intelligence service -- known as RAW because of the initials of its more genteel official name, the Research and Analysis Wing -- will complete a report on whether Pakistan has complied with an Indian ultimatum that it halt terrorist infiltration into Kashmir and hand over alleged terrorists.
The Indians will doubtless report the truth, which is that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- for all his good intentions -- has so far failed to meet the two demands the Indian government made last December, after pro-Pakistani terrorists bombed the Indian parliament.
But what will the Indian government do then? Up to 500,000 Indian troops are poised along India`s 1,800-mile border with Pakistan, in what experts say is the highest state of Indian mobilization in the past 30 years.
With a three-to-one superiority in conventional forces, the Indians could burst across the border and, in a matter of days or even hours, overrun Lahore and effectively cut Pakistan in half. And many hawkish Indians will demand military action when RAW and other security agencies issue their reports, perhaps next week.
What would Pakistan, a state with nuclear weapons and sophisticated missiles to deliver them, do in response to an Indian military move?
Pakistan is vague about its nuclear doctrine, so it`s hard to be sure. But many analysts fear Pakistan`s missiles are targeted against Indian cities, and that facing an Indian conventional onslaught, it would launch a retaliatory nuclear attack on, say, New Delhi, that would leave millions dead. India would probably retaliate with its own nuclear weapons, probably dropped from bombers -- killing many millions more.
Welcome to what a senior State Department official calls ``the other crisis.`` It`s difficult these days to focus on anything other than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with its grisly daily death toll. But in this case it`s essential. Because if the India-Pakistan situation gets out of hand, the death toll could run, not to dozens, but to tens of millions.
The Indian subcontinent is the only part of the world where nuclear war is today a serious possibility. U.S. and European officials are increasingly worried about what could happen there this summer. They warn that all the ingredients are in place for a disastrous chain of miscalculation on the order of August 1914, when over-armed European nations blundered into World War I.
The State Department is alarmed enough that it is hurriedly sending a senior official to visit India and Pakistan -- probably next week. Secretary of State Powell is expected to call top officials in the two countries by telephone this week to caution against miscalculation.
Intelligence reports make clear why U.S. and European officials are so worried. Western analysts believe Musharraf doesn`t have the political clout to comply with the Indian demands, even if he wanted to. These analysts argue, for example, that Musharraf still doesn`t fully control the Pakistani intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI, even after firing its chief, Gen. Mahmoud Ahmad, last October.
The Indians believe ISI is deeply involved in the long-running terrorist campaign to free Kashmir from Indian control, and the list of 20 alleged terrorists they have given to Pakistan for extradition includes some people who are reputedly close to the ISI.
Musharraf cannot meet the other Indian demand, for an end to Pakistani infiltration of Kashmir, even if he finds some face-saving compromise on the 20 names. The Pakistani president already ordered such a halt in a widely praised Jan. 12 speech, but analysts say the flow of potential terrorists into Kashmir has continued. Indeed, they say it has increased in recent weeks as the Himalayan snows have begun to melt and transit routes have opened.
It`s almost inevitable that pro-Pakistani terrorists eventually will strike again inside India -- triggering demands for military retaliation by the fully mobilized Indian forces.
Another factor worrying U.S. and European analysts is the political weakness of India`s prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee. Though he has restrained Indian militants in the past, and held what appeared to be a productive summit with Musharraf over Kashmir last year, Vajpayee is in poor health. The dominant Indian political figure now is the home minister, L. K. Advani, a hard-liner who has no interest in making a deal with Musharraf for outside mediation that could at last defuse the Kashmir time bomb.
India has maintained its costly mobilization since January, and analysts note that it has scheduled the rotation of troops and equipment to keep its forces at peak levels through June and July -- when analysts fear the danger of military action will be highest.
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would mean loss of life on a scale the world has never before seen. The simple but unpleasant fact for the Bush administration is that to reduce this danger, it must play a more active diplomatic role. As in the Middle East, the United States is the only power with enough leverage on both sides to make a difference.
The apocalyptic scenarios may prove wrong, but the Indians and Pakistanis will have trouble averting them on their own. This is the real thing, Mr. President -- one of those moments when history is watching and will not forgive inaction.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
http://www.sulekha.com/redirectnh.asp?cid=198954
By David Ignatius
Friday, May 10, 2002; Page A37
Sometime this month, the Indian intelligence service -- known as RAW because of the initials of its more genteel official name, the Research and Analysis Wing -- will complete a report on whether Pakistan has complied with an Indian ultimatum that it halt terrorist infiltration into Kashmir and hand over alleged terrorists.
The Indians will doubtless report the truth, which is that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- for all his good intentions -- has so far failed to meet the two demands the Indian government made last December, after pro-Pakistani terrorists bombed the Indian parliament.
But what will the Indian government do then? Up to 500,000 Indian troops are poised along India`s 1,800-mile border with Pakistan, in what experts say is the highest state of Indian mobilization in the past 30 years.
With a three-to-one superiority in conventional forces, the Indians could burst across the border and, in a matter of days or even hours, overrun Lahore and effectively cut Pakistan in half. And many hawkish Indians will demand military action when RAW and other security agencies issue their reports, perhaps next week.
What would Pakistan, a state with nuclear weapons and sophisticated missiles to deliver them, do in response to an Indian military move?
Pakistan is vague about its nuclear doctrine, so it`s hard to be sure. But many analysts fear Pakistan`s missiles are targeted against Indian cities, and that facing an Indian conventional onslaught, it would launch a retaliatory nuclear attack on, say, New Delhi, that would leave millions dead. India would probably retaliate with its own nuclear weapons, probably dropped from bombers -- killing many millions more.
Welcome to what a senior State Department official calls ``the other crisis.`` It`s difficult these days to focus on anything other than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with its grisly daily death toll. But in this case it`s essential. Because if the India-Pakistan situation gets out of hand, the death toll could run, not to dozens, but to tens of millions.
The Indian subcontinent is the only part of the world where nuclear war is today a serious possibility. U.S. and European officials are increasingly worried about what could happen there this summer. They warn that all the ingredients are in place for a disastrous chain of miscalculation on the order of August 1914, when over-armed European nations blundered into World War I.
The State Department is alarmed enough that it is hurriedly sending a senior official to visit India and Pakistan -- probably next week. Secretary of State Powell is expected to call top officials in the two countries by telephone this week to caution against miscalculation.
Intelligence reports make clear why U.S. and European officials are so worried. Western analysts believe Musharraf doesn`t have the political clout to comply with the Indian demands, even if he wanted to. These analysts argue, for example, that Musharraf still doesn`t fully control the Pakistani intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI, even after firing its chief, Gen. Mahmoud Ahmad, last October.
The Indians believe ISI is deeply involved in the long-running terrorist campaign to free Kashmir from Indian control, and the list of 20 alleged terrorists they have given to Pakistan for extradition includes some people who are reputedly close to the ISI.
Musharraf cannot meet the other Indian demand, for an end to Pakistani infiltration of Kashmir, even if he finds some face-saving compromise on the 20 names. The Pakistani president already ordered such a halt in a widely praised Jan. 12 speech, but analysts say the flow of potential terrorists into Kashmir has continued. Indeed, they say it has increased in recent weeks as the Himalayan snows have begun to melt and transit routes have opened.
It`s almost inevitable that pro-Pakistani terrorists eventually will strike again inside India -- triggering demands for military retaliation by the fully mobilized Indian forces.
Another factor worrying U.S. and European analysts is the political weakness of India`s prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee. Though he has restrained Indian militants in the past, and held what appeared to be a productive summit with Musharraf over Kashmir last year, Vajpayee is in poor health. The dominant Indian political figure now is the home minister, L. K. Advani, a hard-liner who has no interest in making a deal with Musharraf for outside mediation that could at last defuse the Kashmir time bomb.
India has maintained its costly mobilization since January, and analysts note that it has scheduled the rotation of troops and equipment to keep its forces at peak levels through June and July -- when analysts fear the danger of military action will be highest.
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would mean loss of life on a scale the world has never before seen. The simple but unpleasant fact for the Bush administration is that to reduce this danger, it must play a more active diplomatic role. As in the Middle East, the United States is the only power with enough leverage on both sides to make a difference.
The apocalyptic scenarios may prove wrong, but the Indians and Pakistanis will have trouble averting them on their own. This is the real thing, Mr. President -- one of those moments when history is watching and will not forgive inaction.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
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