Lighting The Nuclear Fire

If there is war…

Brian Cloughley

The probable result of a conventional war will be stalemate, with India hammered to a halt and Pakistan suffering heavily in the process. If either country decides to go nuclear, all bets are off, and I wish you all a fond goodbye.

rest at:


http://www.thefridaytimes.com/

The road to ruin

By C. Rammanohar Reddy




The only significant victors in the current game of war hysteria are the BJP and the members of its rag-tag coalition who watched in silence as the Gujarat pogrom was orchestrated. A Government that had lost all moral legitimacy has found the recent spurt in terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir a ready tool to recover lost ground. A nation shamed in the eyes of the world is falling back on the oldest and most cynical of policies to assert itself. It is significant (or some coincidence) that the drumbeats of war are beginning to sound louder just when we finally have names and faces to the victims of the unthinkable horrors of Gujarat.

http://www.thehindu.com/stories/2002052500621000.htm

for war mongerers and chest thumping nationalists:

empty kettles make the loudest noise!

Well, Dr Hoodbhoy, you, an intelligent and thinking person, have all my sympathy. You are stuck in a region that is so much unlike you; a region that has not matured, let alone become civilized, in its 5000-year-old history. What a farce to claim it`s an ancient ``civilization``! They are anciently petty, ignorant and stupid. Both are a couple of clowns who don`t know for whom the bell tolls! Now I hear that the man responsible for creating the nuclear bomb for India is to be India`s next president! Can a country get more primitive and infantile than that! I think not!!!! Life is cheap and does not have a meaning in your part of the world. Good luck!

re: temporal

...the results of conventional war will def. not be stalemate, as the new york times article below suggests...

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/21/international/asia/21KASH.html

{Foreign diplomats say, moreover, that with Indian politicians` increasingly bellicose statements, Pakistani leaders have grown worried about a full-blown war with its much bigger and better-armed neighbor.

``The frightening thing is that the Pakistanis are so weak on the conventional side as a results of all the sanctions these last 10 years or so,`` said a senior Western diplomat who recently served in South Asia.}

Quiz:

Which country gets its soldiers killed,in skirmishes,on a regular basis on,ALL its fronts,viz:

Bangladesh

Sikkim

Bhutan

Nepal

Tibet

Sri Lanka

China

Myanmaar

Why is there ``cross-border`` `terrorism` only against a certain nation which has made excreta & effluence of its four-legged mommy a celebrated past-time.

On the other hand how many Muslim(Pakistani,including Kashmiri) soldiers are being killed by Iran,Afghanistan,China,Uzbekistaan & Tajikistan?

__________________________________________________

The hindu mentality is a profit-seeking one.The only thing that he is more afraid of than death is of losing wealth.The Hindians will never risk anything in an impulsive honourable way.Lower caste hindu will never save a brahmin & a brahmin has every fear of getting re-incarnated as some lesser creature.The smell of death panics a hindu.....& there a more muslims in Hindia than in Pakistan...........``Hai Raam,Ibb kyaa ho gaa``.

BJP & RSS are the best thing that has happened to Muslims of Hindia and/or Pakistan.They are being offered a rare opportunity of boldly affirming their Islam & get flushed out of the closet of secularism/socialism.No amount of tilak or aadaabs would ever placate a true-to-his-creed hindu(the ones I respect) and ultimately all faiths & beliefs have to be tasted & tested by the ultimate weapon everyone has---his life.

REST is Intellectualism & Unclish illiteracy.

They invaded Muslim Hyderabad---when Pakistani Muslims were mourning the loss of their beloved leader.

They invaded JunaGadh,Manvadar,& other places when it was absolutely safe to do so.

It is only they who could claim ``victory`` in Bangladesh.

Such is the psyche of those destined to serve.Traders & shopkeepers can never ever be Conquerers.A king in exile is still a king and a Hindu on a throne----is,just a hindu.

__________________________________________________

RELAX:Their will be no war---unless Pakistan initiates it.

THAT HAS BEEN,IS,AND ALWAYS SHALL BE THE RULE.

Re Pakistan`s Gauri Missile test:

Just another test. Pakistan again lost on the PR war. Here is why:

It is not about the test itself. But the significance w r t ``gauri``. The name signifies

the muslim invader in 11th century who invaded

(India) and fought against ``prithvi``. Remember,

Ghauri didn`t fight against the ``hindu`` per se.

He was fighting the ``infidels`` in Allah`s name.

The world is going to look at it that way. NYT reports something similar.

Pakistan army pays scant regard to Musharraf`s talk: Captured militant

A captured militant on Saturday indicated that the Pakistani army pays scant regard to Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf`s promise not to allow his country or its border to be used for any kind of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir and continues to train and push militants into the state.

``We were kept by Pak troops in a launching pad and then pushed into this side for carrying out terrorist activities and subversive actions,`` Anjum, captured by security forces at Chawa on Friday night, told a group of reporters in Rajouri on Saturday afternoon.

Codenamed Mehrul Islam, Anjum said the `Pakistani army organised and directed our infiltration into Indian territory and also assigned us to undertake several subversive missions in J&K`.

Anjum, who lost three of his Pakistani militant colleagues in the encounter with the army at Chawa village, revealed that Pakistani intelligence agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) was still training militants at various launching pads.

``We were organised by Pak troops and pushed through Nallah post and tasked to target the Doodhadaray temple in Rajouri town to create communal violence on the eve of Eid,`` Anjum, whose five other militant colleagues managed to escape, said.

The ISI has directed all militant outfits, including the Al-Badr, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT), Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islami (HUJI) and Tehreek-e-Jahid Islami (Teji) to fight under a joint platform, he added.

Anjum, who has been active in Kashmir for over three years, said that the Pakistani army does not pay heed to the statements of Musharraf and that it is committed to the militancy in Kashmir.

Over 1000 trained militants are ready to be pushed into J&K from their launching pads-cum-Pak posts along the Line of Control (LoC), he said.

Later, Brigadier Rohit Kalia told mediapersons, ``Pakistan army is involved in militancy in J&K at all levels.``

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http://www.dawn.com/2002/05/25/top10.htm

Patten puts onus on Pakistan

NEW DELHI, May 24: European Union Commissioner for External Relations Chris Patten on Friday urged Islamabad to turn off ``the terrorist tap`` in Kashmir and saidthat India had hardened its stance against Pakistan.

Patten, who arrived from Islamabad on Thursday, told Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh he was of the view that Pakistan had to lower the level of ``militant insurgency`` into India from Azad Kashmir.

Patten, before meeting Singh, told reporters that it would be a grave error on Pakistan`s part if it continued to pursue ``deceptions``.

``Many people in Pakistan will look you in face and say `no` there aren`t any jihadi camps, `no` there is no infiltration from our side but then people don`t (buy) ... that argument anymore.

``I think it would be the most profound miscalculation if anybody in Pakistan thought that turning on and off the terrorist tap could be used as an adjunct to diplomacy,`` he said, and urged India and Pakistan to re-establish the dialogue that broke down after the Dec 13 attack on the Indian parliament.

Indian foreign ministry spokeswoman Nirupama Rao said Patten, in his talks with Jaswant Singh, had emphasized that Pakistan must put the ``brakes on cross-border guerilla attacks`` in occupied Kashmir.

``He was of the view that in order to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan it is absolutely essential that Pakistan reduce the level of infiltration and the levels of terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir as a first step,`` Rao said.

``Patten said he was able to gauge that the patience of the Indian leadership was almost beyond breaking point and that we need practical examples of genuine and lasting Pakistani action to implement the commitment to eradicate terrorism operating against India as declared in Gen Pervez Musharraf`s Jan 12 speech.``-AFP

South Asia challenges U.N.

By RAMESH THAKUR and ODDNY WIGGEN

Special to The Japan Times

India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are commemorating 50 years of diplomatic relations with Japan. How their respective circumstances have changed in that time! Today Japan is the biggest aid donor to South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka), several of which are marked by despair at home and disquiet abroad.

The United Nations University, in collaboration with other U.N. agencies in Japan, is organizing an international conference on ``The United Nations and South Asia`` on Monday and Tuesday. What happens there could shape the contours of the global community in the decades ahead. The sheer scale of the problems and the numbers of people involved are so huge as to pose an intimidating challenge to the core competence of the U.N. as the arena for global problem-solving.

South Asia by itself accounts for one-fifth of ``We the peoples of the United Nations.`` Developments there cut across the major faultlines of the U.N. system on economic development, environmental protection, food and water security, democratic governance and human rights, nuclear war and peace, internal conflicts, and new security issues like AIDS and international terrorism.

Since the end of the Cold War the global pattern of warfare has shifted to internal conflicts, yet one of the remaining potential interstate conflicts is found in South Asia. The situation is aggravated by the fact that both potential belligerents are nuclear powers. Whereas the Cold War was somewhat stable, the relationship between Pakistan and India is quite different and more volatile. The two countries share a long border, which allows little time to decide whether to use nuclear weapons in response to a perceived threat.

Pakistan and India are actively involved in a territorial dispute over Kashmir that has already resulted in wars. Neither country has second-strike retaliatory capability, which makes them both more vulnerable to a preemptive strike than was the case between the superpowers during the Cold War. The conflict is exacerbated by, and in turn aggravates, domestic political volatility in both countries.

Most of the countries in South Asia have insurgency movements. The separatist Tamil Tiger movement in Sri Lanka is one example, where an ethnic group seeks territorial withdrawal from the state entity. India faces challenges in many regions. The violent Maoist movement in Nepal has been much in the news in recent weeks, and over the last few years many have expressed concern about the ``Talibanization`` of Pakistan.

The level of terrorist violence across the region is alarming. Allegations are frequently made that governments support cross-border terrorism to undermine neighboring societies. The phrase ``aid, abet and harbor`` terrorists has entered the international policymaking agenda since Sept. 11. Can the challenge of ``political terrorism`` be met without addressing the underlying fundamental political issues?

Of the 21 million refugees and others of concern to the U.N. High Commission for Refugees around the world, South Asia accounts for 14 percent, including 700,000 internally displaced Tamils in Sri Lanka.

Neighboring regions have similar or worse refugee situations that may in turn exacerbate the problem in South Asia. Domestically, refugee flows are destabilizing and, since the 1990s, the problem has increasingly been considered a threat to international peace and security. Similarly, there have been disputes over migration, such as when India tried to limit migration from Bangladesh.

If South Asia poses a challenge to international peace and security, it is also true that the region contributes 28 percent of the U.N.`s total peacekeeping personnel. Three of the world`s top four providers of U.N. peacekeepers are currently from South Asia: Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. What accounts for their continued commitment in light of the marked reluctance of some of the Western countries to accept the burden of U.N. peacekeeping?

South Asia represents 20 percent of the world`s people and its population is growing faster than the world average. The region is characterized by poverty, illiteracy and short life expectancy. How can domestic and international efforts be improved to foster growth and development?

East Asia provides many examples of successful state-directed development. By contrast, South Asia has been notable for the failure of state-managed development. Today even South Asian countries are trying to embrace the market and engage with the international economy. At the same time, and in the opposite direction, they face pressures to adjust to the reality of globalization. The benefits and costs of globalization raise further questions of how to alleviate poverty and promote rapid growth in South Asia.

How can the need to liberalize in a global market be balanced with the need to protect economic sovereignty and policy autonomy, safeguard vulnerable sectors of production and quarantine cultural icons from baleful external influences?

When addressing these problems, the system of government is an integral part of the debate. South Asia has been central to the worldwide debate on bread vs. liberty and, indeed, on whether the choice is a false dichotomy. Does India deserve praise as the world`s largest democracy despite poverty, or is persistent poverty a necessary and acceptable cost of democratic governance?

Similarly, to meet the challenges posed by the ethnically heterogeneous South Asian states, is a strong central government or a decentralized political structure allowing for more self-government the better option? Furthermore, is a secular state or a state asserting a religious identity better suited to face the problems of this region? Given experience elsewhere in the world and the size of the countries in South Asia, will the establishment and consolidation of institutions for protecting human rights be a threat or a safeguard to national integration?

Economic development in South Asia can be closely linked to concerns about environmental degradation. Three major drivers behind this can be readily identified: a very high population growth rate coupled with a lack of appropriate infrastructure, unfettered industrial growth without due environmental considerations, and shifting demographics, including intense urbanization.

Poverty and lack of education further exacerbate adverse environmental impacts. Not without coincidence, environmental degradation also adversely affects livelihoods and the availability of natural resources -- forming a vicious cycle of destruction. Examples of these include exploitation of fisheries beyond the rate of replenishment, destruction of mangrove forests and the natural bounty contained therein, and pollution of river systems by urban and industrial wastes.

In addition to affecting ecosystems and economic infrastructure, adverse environmental impacts have serious consequences for public health. The number of people suffering from poisoning by arsenic and fluoride are staggering. Air pollution in South Asia`s congested cities is a major cause of respiratory and cancer-related diseases. Access to clean drinking water remains a formidable challenge throughout the region.

Rising population pressures and increasingly stressed natural resources may cause or exacerbate transboundary conflicts. This is most obvious for sharing water resources and, perhaps, energy resources in the region. The challenge for the U.N. and the international community remains how to solve these problems in an integrated manner, while promoting economic growth and development.

Ramesh Thakur is vice rector and Oddny Wiggen is program associate of the United Nations University in Tokyo. These are their personal views. Information on this week`s conference can be viewed at the U.N. University`s Web site ( www.unu.edu).

The Japan Times: May 26, 2002

War clouds over South Asia

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY

NEW DELHI -- As Indian and Pakistani soldiers trade heavy artillery fire along the Line of Control dividing disputed Kashmir, an open military confrontation between the two nuclear rivals appears likely unless the United States is able to compel Pakistan to crack down on terror groups tied to its intelligence service.

America`s critical role is reinforced by its military presence in Pakistan and by its warming relations with India. If India were to militarily retaliate against Pakistan for its proxy war through surrogate terror groups, it would put the U.S. in the anomalous position of having to insulate its forces in Pakistan from the fighting and balance its ties with both rivals.

Washington has intensified its pressure on Pakistani military dictator President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to clamp down on terrorist bands because it recognizes the logic of events may be compelling India toward openly joining the undeclared one-sided war being pursued against it by Pakistan for years. With each additional step it takes to be ready for war, India is putting itself in a military position from which its leadership cannot back off.

The time-frame in which India may be forced to join the war, however, remains unclear because the decision on when to join the battle may be imposed on New Delhi by Pakistani terrorists who carry out macabre killings in India.

The irony is that these terrorists, although linked to Pakistan`s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, may not all be under the control of Musharraf and his Cabinet. But by failing to clamp down on such terrorists, Musharraf has made an open military confrontation with India more likely.

The latest crisis, triggered by the May 14 terrorist killing of 32 people, including 22 wives and children of Indian Army troops, is rooted in Musharraf`s going back on antiterrorist pledges he made Jan. 12, a month after five Pakistani gunmen attempted to storm the Indian Parliament and kill the elected leadership.

Musharraf has quietly released most of the 2,000 militants he arrested as part of his much-publicized antiterrorist cleanup in January. They include leaders of two Pakistani terrorist outfits tied to al-Qaeda -- Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. Not one of those he detained has been charged.

He has also allowed banned terrorist outfits to regroup under new names and run publications. In fact, in the runup to the recent sham referendum he held on his self-declared presidency, he mollycoddled Islamists in an effort to buy their support, freeing from custody some important extremists.

The probability of Indian military counteraction has also been increased by the failure of Indian diplomatic and economic sanctions against Pakistan to yield results, and the credibility problem faced by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee`s government.

After terrorists attacked the Indian Kashmir legislature last October, Vajpayee told U.S. President George W. Bush that India`s restraint would end if there were another major attack by a Pakistani militant group. But when the Indian Parliament was attacked in December, Vajpayee drew a new line in the sand, even as he exercised an important military option -- mobilizing Indian forces at land and sea for possible war.

More than five months later, yet another terrorist attack has forced Vajpayee to again vow retaliation. Pakistan`s reluctance to match its antiterrorism promises with deeds has paralleled India`s reluctance so far to match its reprisal threats with action. But now the danger of open war has heightened because Vajpayee risks wrecking his credibility if he fails to carry through on his third threat of retaliation.

In interstate relations, a threat to use force can achieve the same results as employing force, but only if the country concerned is prepared to carry through on that threat. The threat to use force has to be credible in the eyes of the adversary.

But not only has Musharraf so far failed to deliver on his antiterrorist pledges despite India`s threat of war, he has also commented mockingly that the Indians want his help to rescue their troops along the border from being seared by the intense heat.

Given this perilous situation, only one development can avert an Indian military riposte -- if even now the U.S. and its Western allies can induce Musharraf to begin fulfilling his Jan. 12 antiterrorism pledges.

With Western interlocutors already delivering blunt messages to him, Musharraf can expect international pressure to mount in the coming days, as British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and U.S. Undersecretary of State Richard Armitage visit the subcontinent.

A genuine crackdown by Musharraf on Pakistani terrorist networks could dramatically disperse the war clouds even at this late stage.

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, contributed this comment to the Japan Times.

The Japan Times: May 25, 2002

http://www.japantimes.com/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20020525bc.htm

Pakistan marks Prophet`s birth with a missile

Kashmir: Two rival nuclear nations are `on a knife-edge` with a million troops on the border as UN teams watch impotently

By Peter Popham in Srinagar

26 May 2002

With tension between India and Pakistan still ``as hot as the weather and on a knife-edge``, according to the EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten in Delhi, Pakistan chose the Prophet Mohammed`s birthday yesterday to test-fire its Ghauri missile system. The missile can deliver nuclear warheads and has a range of nearly 1,000 miles, bringing most of India within range.

``I want to congratulate the country and all the people of Pakistan ... I want to thank God for this success,`` said President Pervez Musharraf. ``We do not want war,`` he told an Islamic conference in Islamabad, ``but we are not afraid of war. We are ready for war. Let no one have any misunderstanding about that.``

India had been informed of the tests in advance, and the spokeswoman of the Foreign Ministry commented: ``We are not impressed by these missile antics.`` On holiday in the hill station of Manali, the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, said India`s patience with Pakistan was running out. ``We have waited far too long,`` he said, ``and our wait is nearing its end.``

Meanwhile the region at the heart of the problem, Kashmir, was this week sunk even deeper in gloom and dejection than usual. Sitting in the garden of an Edwardian villa in central Srinagar, a senior European army officer with the United Nations` mission to Kashmir shared the gloomy mood.

The mission to Kashmir is one of the UN`s more futile operations. Styled Unmogip, the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan, it came into existence in 1949 to monitor the ceasefire agreement that ended the first Indo-Pakistan war. It has been here ever since ­ most of the time with very little purpose. Wishing to erase from memory the fact that the Kashmir dispute once had an international dimension and that the UN had passed resolutions intended to settle it, India has given Unmogip`s luckless officials very little help or encouragement.

``We have seven field stations,`` says the officer with a sigh, ``and we are allowed to move between them. But other than that the Indians give us no freedom of movement, because they say our security is their responsibility.`` So although ostensibly responsible for monitoring the ``ceasefire``, they are not allowed to visit the Line of Control, Kashmir`s de facto border, or forward Indian army positions. They are not allowed to strike up relations with Kashmiris, and a Raj-era law is invoked to ban them even from speaking to Indian Army officers.

``We spend a lot of time on the computer,`` says the officer. He has also proved a boon to Kashmir`s embattled craftsmen: he becomes animated describing the fantastic souvenirs he has acquired, including an elaborately carved dining table and other pieces of folk furniture. But mention the politics and his mouth turns down again. ``Unless they agree to cut Kashmir in half along the Line of Control,`` he says, ``they will fight for another 50 years.``

Mr Vajpayee came through Kashmir last week on his way to address soldiers on the front line. He announced a huge package of financial assistance to the state ­ 61bn rupees, more than £890m ­ but Kashmiris were not impressed. A strike to protest his visit called by separatist groups was very widely observed. Abdul Ghani Bhat, chairman of the separatist umbrella group All-party Hurriyat [Freedom] Conference, said ``We are back at square one. When the Indian leaders refuse to recognise the realities on the ground, things are bound to go back to square one.`` Mr Vajpayee has floated several initiatives to kick-start a peace process with the mass of disaffected Kashmiri Muslims who are opposed to remaining part of India, but each has been strangled at birth by hawks in his cabinet.

And the hawks on the Pakistani side have ensured that any Kashmiris speaking the language of reconciliation with India come to a nasty end. The latest was the moderate separatist leader Abdul Gani Lone, who had called for the foreign militants active in the Kashmir Valley to go home. He was shot dead on Tuesday, probably by agents of a militant group based in Pakistan.

State elections are due to be held in Kashmir in the autumn, a demonstration by India to the world of how its citizens exercise their democratic rights. But it is fated to be a charade. The separatists have vowed to boycott it, the militants will threaten anyone planning to vote with a bullet in the back of the head. The few parties that favour continued membership of the Indian Union will again carve up the state between themselves.

``The election has no relevance,`` Abdul Gani Lone said on the day he died. ``For us it would be a diversion. Instead of arguing for liberation, we would be arguing whether or not the polls were rigged.``

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia_china/story.jsp?story=299059

Kashmir militants plan new attacks

Pakistan accused as Kashmir militants plan new attacks

Rory McCarthy in Islamabad and Richard Norton-Taylor

Saturday May 25, 2002

The Guardian

Islamist extremists backed by a powerful wing of the Pakistan army are preparing to launch new guerrilla attacks in Kashmir, raising fears that their activities could push the subcontinent into nuclear war.

Militants backed by the Pakistan`s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) have described how they are acquiring funds and training for guerrilla conflict in Kashmir, in violation of a government ban.

The Indian government has issued Islamabad with an ultimatum: stop terrorist acts in Indian-controlled Kashmir or face war. Both countries have nuclear weapons.

Although Pakistan`s military regime announced a crackdown on Islamist extremists in January and arrested 2,000 militants, there is mounting evidence that Pakistani groups are still heavily involved in the war in Kashmir.

Several hundred ISI officers, who have personally backed extreme Islamists, remain opposed to the Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf`s decision to back America in its ``war on terror`` and, according to a senior Pakistani military source, have avoided a recent purge of the agency`s leadership.

Britain is deeply concerned at the events in Kashmir and the intentions of Pakistan`s military. A senior Whitehall source said: ``Whether or not Musharraf is turning a blind eye we don`t know. What is clear is that the ISI is up to its old tricks.``

Gen Musharraf has insisted there is no resistance to his decision to side with America and to pursue a more moderate agenda at home, and that the ISI is acting under his orders alone.

However, western diplomats yesterday disputed his claim. ``Musharraf in January promised infiltration [of militant groups in Kashmir] would stop. It has not happened``, one diplomat said.

Officials described the ISI`s continuing involvement with extremists groups as a ``key issue``. The groups needed the ISI for training, money, and weapons, they said.

Elements of the ISI see their role in Kashmir as ``supporting their own citizens recovering their own homeland, not terrorists,`` they added.

The crisis cuts to the heart of the widening rift between India and Pakistan. The rivals are now closer to all-out con flict over Kashmir than at any time in the past 30 years, military observers say.

The crisis is compounded as both the Indian and Pakistani governments are in a fragile position politically, making it difficult for either to be seen to be backing down, according to western diplomats.

India holds Pakistan directly responsible for a militant attack in Kashmir last week that left 34 people dead. New Delhi promised punishment and has prepared for war.

In an apparent act of defiance Pakistan yesterday announced it would hold several missile tests beginning today. Pakistan state television said the ``routine`` tests were not linked to the Kashmir dispute.

The tests will do little to calm growing international anxiety over the row between the two countries, who have already fought three wars.

Yesterday Chris Patten, the EU`s external affairs commissioner, met government officials in New Delhi after a similar round of meetings in Islamabad. He said tensions between the two nations were high. ``I think India`s patience is close to breaking,`` he said.

``Unless we see progress in reduction in the level of infiltration [of militants] and a reduction in the level of violence in Jammu and Kashmir, the outlook is bleak.

``Frankly [Pakistan has] got to deliver more than they have so far,`` he added.

The foreign secretary, Jack Straw, is due to visit India and Pakistan next week. Richard Armitage, the US deputy secretary of state, is due to travel to both countries next month.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/kashmir/Story/0,2763,722045,00.html

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