India’s Potential Lose-Lose-Lose Scenario

The author asks, With enemies like India, who needs friends?

That explains why Pakistan has no friends.

Romair: Isn`t it late now to worry about war scenarios. Perhaps chowk did not publish this article in time.

point 5 and 6 should have been the same. USA went to war against a universally unrecognized (only three countries with two later backing off) government because the terrorist attack on WTC was most likely to have connections in Afghanistan. No other government in the world had the same probability of connection to WTC attack.

The best scenario for fundamentalists in Pakistan would be Indian giving in to some sort of compromise in Kashmir because it will be looked as the result of sacrifices by jehadis.

The best scenario for Pakistan is no-war and better relations with India. True democracy with a victory and government by PPPP or PML(N) will certainly help.

The best scenario for India is to not let its economy suffer in any way. At present, despite Kashmir militancy, Indian economy is not visibly suffering. There is no concrete evidence of Indian economy bleeding as a result of militancy in Kashmir.

A full fledge war will be a lose-disaster scenario for India and Pakistan respectively.

//...All Parties Hurriyat Conference (perhaps the most sophisticated and balanced group of leaders in South Asia)....//

Wow - hear the revelation from heaven. Hurriyat is a bunch of senile, opportunistic nobodies who have prostituted themselves to Pakistan for petty cash(May be they should rename the party as `Hoorie-yaat`). The only guy who showed some sort of independence of thought( Lone ) was killed off by Paki Lackeys a few months back. His son who heads his part of the flock actually is thinking of leaving Hurriyat.

This bunch are responsible for ethnic cleansing of Pandits in the valley. They don`t represent no kashmiris. Otherwise they wouldn`t running scared whenever somebody says ``election``.

All of them have become rich by hob-nobbing with rich arabs and other findamentalist muslim individuals/terrorist organizations, in name of kashmir ``fredom fighting``.

...this is predictable drivel we have seen a thousand times...have repeatedly made an ass of yourself (romair, right?) as one theory of yours after another has fallen flat on its face...give it up, dude...

Inferiority complex

Updated on 8/9/2002 2:06:54 PM

On analysing Indian psychology one comes to a painful conclusion that they are a conceited lot and hold an over valued, overweening opinion of themselves.

This is because their leaders boast about Indian economy and military might, etc., which is then highlighted by their print and electronic media to make their masses live in the world of make believe.This is obvious from the Indian government’s political decision vis-a-vis Pakistan.

They have amassed massive army and the latest defence equipment all along the LoC, working boundary and international borders at the cost of billions of rupees.

This amount, which could have been easily diverted towards the alleviation of sufferings of their masses, has gone down the drain just to satisfy their lust for pretentious display.

In the process, they, however, have internationalised the Kashmir dispute as well.

Even in sports, they would like to believe that they are a better side and do not play cricket or hockey against Pakistan because of dreaded fear of losing these matches.

Rather they participate only in those games in which they hope to win.

Their film producers make films with dialogues like ‘we can run over and finish that country (Pakistan) in a matter of seven days’.

These advertisements of forthcoming films are then shown repeatedly on the Indian TV channels.

Very childish! What are they trying to prove? This false sense of “vanity “ is due to their deep-rooted and deep-seated inferiority complex on account of being ruled for centuries by the Mughal emperors, which they want to overcome by showing their grandeurs in sports and their military might.

We are waiting for the day when they may grow out of this complex and face realities.

Prof.

Dr. Aslam Piracha, Islamabad.

That looks like to be a wish list.

There is no doubt that India is passing through a bad time.

It will all depend upon the strength of the Indian economy. If it crumbles, India crumbles.

Democracy which was taking care of internal contradictions, was helpful in keeping India united at the time its economy was bad.

With the current situation, where lot of states are left behind in economic prosperity. And foreign countries are there to take advantage of keeping India from playing a major role.

Only a pragmatic leadership can change the situation.

India in trying to isolate Pakistan, has gone to extreme. And its policies and politics are more guided by Anti Pakistan and internally, Anti-Muslim phenomenon.

This situation is detrimental to India in the long run.

Although it may be able to mend fences later on under pressure of time.

But it will be too late and price too high to the benefit of Pakistan and Indian Muslims.

I can foresee a strong movement for autonomy where ever minorities have say, rather than working with strong center.

India`s folly was that, it had tried to put all eggs in same basket.

And definitely India`s NRI will come in full force to sell their product.

Let the time decide.

Can anybody still claim that India is worthy of a permanent position in U.N.

Or its economy will overtake China by 2025.

All those predictions gone awry.

What our residents speak about greater autonomy to provences.

That will take effect. Sooner rather than later.

Romair,

Nice synopsis of the arguments youve presented over the last few months/yrs.

However, true to your style, you have presented an optimistic spin on current events in Kashmir. May I, for arguments sake, put a pessimistic spin ...ofcourse, since I`m not an expert, I realise they maybe invalid:)

Before I do so, let me just say that I support the notion of Kashmiri independance, primarily because I feel India`s behavior has been wrong (Pakistan or no Pakistan).

1)The AHPC policy of recruiting Pakistan to help them win that independance, in 20-20 hindsight, has proven to be an absolute disaster for them. They are realising it & are trying to distance themselves from the mujahadeen groups.

Unfortunately, for them, its not going to be that easy. Once you invite these groups, the latter are not going to just leave the fight, just because the AHPC says so. In fact, it is causing a serious rift between moderate & radical Kashmiris in the AHPC itself--further weakening their cause. Its based on the principal of ``we have shed blood for the cause; so we have a right to have a say in what happens to Kashmir``.

Lone`s own son has fingered these groups in the assassination of his father. Many Kashmiris are seriously contemplating participating in the elections; but are intimidated by threats from across the border.

2) India has successfully painted these groups as terrorists. Eventhough the US will NEVER brand Pakistan a terrorist state (as long as Busharraf is calling the shots in Pakistan); the US has openly acknowledged that these groups are ``terrorist``, NOT ``freedom fighters``...much to Mushy`s shigrin.

3)The AHPC has NO international ``sugar daddy``, like the PLO--other than Pakistan (who is anything BUT a ``sugar daddy``). The Arabs & the OIC have taken a neutral stance. Their silence on this issue, internationally, has been DEAFENING! The US & West have NOT supported the AHPC..& will NEVER support them as long as they target Indians (whether those Indians are soldiers or civilians).

In fact, Powell suggested that the Kashmiris SHOULD participate in the elections, as a prelude to talks..which dissappointed them & Pakistan.

4)Even if India is FORCED to enter into talks with them, it doesnt mean they will get independance-- I would`nt dance in the streets prematurely. For an Indian PM to grant Kashmiri independance is like touching a political ``third rail``. I wont be surprised if such a PM is assassinated or, atleast collapse in the govt with a ``no confidence`` vote.

Kashmir is NOT India`s Vietnam..Pakistan & the AHPC has to accept that. NO Indian crowds have demonstrated in New Delhi to make the GoI stop the war.

India will enter the talks & successfully tie up the talks with a zillion different conditions & technicalities & prolong it forever. Dont underestimate their guile.

Unless & until a strong ``sugar daddy`` twists India`s arm...Indians wont budge. Thats why I was very dissappointed at the OIC & Arab reaction. Please understand that just like the US wont alienate Pakistan by branding it as a rouge terrorist state; the US will NOT tilt towards the AHPC & twist India`s arm. It is AGAINST US interests to alienate India; for a million obvious reasons.

I hope by now, the world realises that the US foreign policy is based on INTERESTS; not ideology or morality.

Whether we like to admit it or not, in international politics, when two parties are deadlocked, MIGHT BECOMES RIGHT!...screw ``morality``..

5)You say Pakistan is trying to eradicate these extremist groups. Yes, but the problem is that even Mushy is undecided whether the Kashmiri mujahadeen are ``friend or foe``. He WANTS to believe they are friendly ``freedom fighters``; but they are pissed at his ``strategic U-turns``.

Like all Pakistani generals, Mushy maybe a superb tactician; but a LOUSY strategist. He changes strategy by the seat of his pants..depending upon which way the wind is blowing. Besides, Indians have regularly beaten him strategically...starting with Kargil. Smart tactics, without a proper strategy is USELESS!

He wont admit it, when he appears regularly on national TV & thumps his chest. But his actions speak louder than his words. Basically, he addresses the nation to explain why he is changing his strategy ONCE AGAIN!

6)Mushy is trying to eradicate terrorist groups in Pakistan! Yeah sure..but how successful has he been, so far?! Seems to me they are embarrassing Mushy & Pakistan REGULARLY & REPEATEDLY, no matter how ``tough`` his stance is! The problem is that unless & until he stops making distinctions, that ``some extremists are friendly & others are not``, he`s going to get nowhere.

7) Sure the fanatical Hindu extremist groups are the bane of India`s existence. But there is ONE important difference...they have NOT declared war on the West, nor have they attacked Western interests. That is a HUGE difference.

The Kurd & Basque groups are extremist too. But they have NOT attacked the West,like the PLO & the ``Islamic militants`` have (historically).

Once again, we then go to the point of ``interests`` vs ``morality`` or ``ideology``.

The bottom line to all this, IMHO, is VIOLENCE. In today`s international climate, if the AHPC continues to fight with VIOLENCE (whether it is with Indian soldiers or not); its noble cause becomes bastardised & they become as evil as the Indians.

So, good luck with your diehard optimism...

ATTENTION... ATTENTION!!!!

ANNOUNCEMENT:

The Brilliant Arundhati Roy is on the Pakistan Tour this independence Day...

On August 14th She is speaking in Islamabad.

On August 15th She is speaking in Lahore.

On August 16th She is speaking in Karachi (I think)...

Please contact the following emails for details and invitations:

aroy_lhr@dailytimes.com.pk

aroy_isb@dailytimes.com.pk

aroy_khi@dailytimes.com.pk

I will be attending the one in Lahore.

Sincerely

YLH

India, Pakistan and G.E.

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

ANGALORE, India — Two months ago India and Pakistan appeared headed for a nuclear war. Colin Powell, the U.S. secretary of state and a former general, played a key role in talking the two parties back from the brink. But here in India, I`ve discovered that there was another new, and fascinating, set of pressures that restrained the Indian government and made nuclear war, from its side, unthinkable. Quite simply, India`s huge software and information technology industry, which has emerged over the last decade and made India the back-room and research hub of many of the world`s largest corporations, essentially told the nationalist Indian government to cool it. And the government here got the message and has sought to de-escalate ever since. That`s right — in the crunch, it was the influence of General Electric, not General Powell, that did the trick.

This story starts with the fact that, thanks to the Internet and satellites, India has been able to connect its millions of educated, English-speaking, low-wage, tech-savvy young people to the world`s largest corporations. They live in India, but they design and run the software and systems that now support the world`s biggest companies, earning India an unprecedented $60 billion in foreign reserves — which doubled in just the last three years. But this has made the world more dependent on India, and India on the world, than ever before.

If you lose your luggage on British Airways, the techies who track it down are here in India. If your Dell computer has a problem, the techie who walks you through it is in Bangalore, India`s Silicon Valley. Ernst & Young may be doing your company`s tax returns here with Indian accountants. Indian software giants in Bangalore, like Wipro, Infosys and MindTree, now manage back-room operations — accounting, inventory management, billing, accounts receivable, payrolls, credit card approvals — for global firms like Nortel Networks, Reebok, Sony, American Express, HSBC and GE Capital.

You go to the Bangalore campuses of these Indian companies and they point out: ``That`s G.E.`s back room over here. That`s American Express`s back office over there.`` G.E.`s biggest research center outside the U.S. is in Bangalore, with 1,700 Indian engineers and scientists. The brain chip for every Nokia cellphone is designed in Bangalore. Renting a car from Avis online? It`s managed here.

So it was no wonder that when the State Department issued a travel advisory on May 31 warning Americans to leave India because the war prospects had risen to ``serious levels,`` all these global firms who had moved their back rooms to Bangalore went nuts.

``That day,`` said Vivek Paul, vice chairman of Wipro, ``I had a C.I.O. [chief information officer] from one of our big American clients send me an e-mail saying: `I am now spending a lot of time looking for alternative sources to India. I don`t think you want me doing that, and I don`t want to be doing it.` I immediately forwarded his letter to the Indian ambassador in Washington and told him to get it to the right person.``

No wonder. For many global companies, ``the main heart of their business is now supported here,`` said N. Krishnakumar, president of MindTree. ``It can cause chaos if there is a disruption.`` While not trying to meddle in foreign affairs, he added, ``what we explained to our government, through the Confederation of Indian Industry, is that providing a stable, predictable operating environment is now the key to India`s development.``

This was a real education for India`s elderly leaders in New Delhi, but, officials conceded, they got the message: loose talk about war or nukes could be disastrous for India. This was reinforced by another new lobby: the information technology ministers who now exist in every Indian state to drum up business.

``We don`t get involved in politics,`` said Vivek Kulkarni, the information technology secretary for Bangalore, ``but we did bring to the government`s attention the problems the Indian I.T. industry might face if there were a war. . . . Ten years ago [a lobby of I.T. ministers] never existed.``

To be sure, none of this guarantees there will be no war. Tomorrow, Pakistani militants could easily do something so outrageous and provocative that India would have to retaliate. But it does guarantee that India`s leaders will now think 10 times about how they respond, and if war is inevitable, that India will pay 10 times the price it would have paid a decade ago.

In the meantime, this cease-fire is brought to you by G.E. — and all its friends here in Bangalore.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/11/opinion/11FRIE.html

India`s potential lose-lose scenario article is nothing but partial one sided view point. christian theory to offer your second cheek runs through out the article. The writer wants India to submit meekly to agressive Pakistan because of fear of Indias` disintegration. Pakistan was saved three times in the last 56 years because of India`s tolerance and secular character.

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Interesting Developmentsin Captive Kashmir and India - Suggest that we may all keep our powder dry

From Hindustan Times - Dtd today

``Kashmir’s biggest challenge

The advice of the Union home minister to the Kashmir Committee to engage the secessionists in the run-up to the assembly election is a welcome sign.

It suggests flexibility and pragmatism. Discussions can always throw up practical ideas that might show the way forward to secure a reasonably wide participation in the election, especially when voters appear eager to express themselves. The Hurriyat Conference is not a monolith. Besides, as the Srinagar media have reported, prominent elements in PoK have tried to nudge it towards dropping its poll-related reservations if the exercise can pave the way for a subsequent broad interaction to resolve the principal issues concerning Kashmir.

The Kashmir Committee then has some delicate work to do. It does appear that the government quietly approves the spadework sought to be done by this body. The experience of the K.C. Pant initiative showed that the time is perhaps not ripe for the government to be up-front officially. The Arun Jaitley channel clearly has a narrower focus. But even if a medley of interlocutors might be engaged in Kashmir, it is a primary government responsibility to ensure a clean election with wide participation. In the end, this alone can serve India in forums interested in Kashmir.

The Election Commission has a high standing and may be expected to make appropriate security arrangements and ensure that the voters’ roll is updated. There is a view that polling under governor’s rule — possible at this stage only if the state assembly recommends it — will enthuse the voters in the Valley. The chief minister appears to be open to the idea when he says he is game if the Hurriyat agrees to be in the election. It needs to be understood, of course, that polls under governor’s rule cannot be allowed to become a precedent. In the ultimate analysis, it is the fairness of the election which is of paramount importance.``

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Your sectarian interest and open lying would be funny if its consequences were not so sad for indians in J&K. Your remarks betray the usual mixture of nonsensical fantasy and untruth that characterizes folks like yourself.

You say:

[quote]

The actual representatives of the Kashmiris, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (perhaps the most sophisticated and balanced group of leaders in South Asia), h

[end=quote]

Indeed. What can we say about self-appointed ``actual representatives`` who are too scared to stand for an election? What can we say about ``actual representatives`` who receive monthly payments from a foreigh power?

And the individuals in Hurriyat? Lets start with Syed Ali Shah Gilani, ex-chair. Mr. Gilani is well-known to indians for the following remarks: (1) he is a proud pakistani (2) the struggle in Kashmir is a religous and islamic struggle and an islamic people are struggling to be freed of Kafirs. He is an open islamist and hate monger.

Why am I not surprised that you find him reasonable and balanced?

[quote]

only supports attacks against occupying Indian soldiers in Kashmir (these actions are recognized as freedom struggles by Amnesty International). It greatly abhors terrorist attacks against civilians.

[end-quote]

Of course, if fact, Amnesty International is personally supervising attacks on the Indian Army !! I guess you must be seriously delusional to think that reasonable people anywhere would believe nonsense like this.

Anyway, I hear that a wonderful freedom struggle has also begun in Pakistan. Congratulations !Recent attacks in Murree and Karachi must make you feel very proud. With a bit of luck, someone you personally know, will be ``liberated`` with an explosive weapon any day now.