Survival of the Fittest

romair,

............ i understand you are a great strategist and all that, but please explain why you say, ``Pakistan needs to go full blown towards China. They really need us and we really need them`` ......... come again - why does china need pakistan? .......... is it because they need to export stuff through the silk route, or is it because they like to vacation in mandi bahauddin? ............. what is it - what can we give them ? ............. our total trade with them is less than 5% of their trade with the US? ...... sure we buy a lot of nail clippers and send them bags of sugar in return - but is that the basis of our relationship? ........or is it the third rate F-6`s and other junk that they sell us .......... i hear a lot about this special relationship, but it doesn`t make any sense - unless there is something you know that the rest of the world doesn`t............ lets`s hear it .........

......... and remember you were 100% wrong about musharraf ............

Pakistan tops list of US targets: Report


Washington, April 29

With the US entering the clean up phase in Iraq, Washington is turning its sights on other regions of concern in the war against terrorism and Pakistan could be near the top on that list, according to analysts.

Despite cooperation from President Pervez Musharraf, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan remains porous -- allowing Taliban and al Qaeda members and sympathisers to pass with relative impunity in some areas, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) said in its latest South Asia situation report.

The markedly different tones of US and Indian officials in their recent statements on Pakistan and cross-border infiltration helps to throw light on the thinking of the two countries, it said.

Richard Haass, US State Department`s director of policy and planning, said April 17 that Washington was ``disappointed and frustrated`` by its inability to encourage Pakistan to stem cross-border infiltration into Kashmir.

Haass warned that relations with Islamabad could never ``improve beyond a certain point`` unless the issue was adequately addressed.

However, speaking in Srinagar the next day, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said New Delhi was ready to discuss ``both internal and external problems,`` adding that ``guns will not solve the matter but brotherhood will.``

Vajpayee`s comments were directed not only at the Kashmiris but also at neighboring Pakistan, to whom he added, ``we again extend the hand of friendship, but it has to be a two-way road``.

These apparently contradictory messages reflect the posturing by India, the United States and Pakistan amid a brewing potential crisis in South Asia, the report said.

Musharraf has been arguing that he was doing all he can to stem the cross-border flow of militants, given the constraints placed on him by the growing Islamist opposition.

But Musharraf also has shown an incredible resilience and ability to weather most challenges and some in Washington want to press him further - feeling there can be no compromise in the still pressing task of neutralising the al Qaeda threat, Stratfor said.

Haass` comments were matched by other State Department officials, who made it clear that dialogue, not military action, was the key to dealing with Pakistan, Stratfor pointed out.

``But the threat remains -- failure to cooperate fully with Washington will lead to the removal of political and, more importantly, economic support that has helped Musharraf balance his commitments to the United States with the myriad pressures at home.``

In essence, the report said, Washington was warning that Musharraf must do more or the United States will step back and ``let him swing in the wind -- possibly just leaving it to India to deal with Pakistan.``

At the same time, Washington was also keeping India in check, Stratfor said. ``Recent comments from New Delhi that Pakistan is a prime candidate for pre-emptive military action were treated with concern and disdain by the US State Department,`` Stratfor quoted reports in the Indian media as saying.

US officials had made it clear to New Delhi that they should change Their tone and pave the way for diplomatic talks with Pakistan before the end of the year.

``Vajpayee`s offer of talks was reportedly conveyed to Washington a week before his Kashmir visit -- even before Haass made his remarks.

For New Delhi, the prospect of the United States turning its back on Pakistan or even acting militarily inside Pakistan without Islamabad`s consent is a mixed blessing at best,`` Stratfor said.

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#251 by Romair on April 28, 2003 8:46pm PT

[Pakistan is one of the few Muslim countries that Israel has some respect for and actually fears also.]

Whoever gave you the idea? In fact, Pakistan is one of the countries that Israel loathes and would love to see it disintegrate, if not for the fact that such a course would make it easier for the Jihadists to acquire nukes. It is this scenario that Israel dreads, and not what your flights of fancy would have us believe.

[It cannot fight in Kashmir for the next 100 years.]

India has demonstrated that it can fight Pak-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir over the last decade and a half, and yet maintain an impressive growth rate of close to 6%. On the other hand, Pakistan has progressively slipped from being one of Asia`s fastest growing economies to a basket case in the same period, so much so that if not for the US bail outs, it would have gone bankrupt. As a consequence, Pakistan`s per-capita income that was higher than India`s for much of the post-partition period, has for the first time has slipped beynd India`s. Therefore, it becomes clear as daylight that India has the will, the time and the resources to fight it out for as long as it takes (100 years as you say), but will Pakistan survive that long?