A Fool’s Errand

A view from the street...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3375463.stm

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amit #21: I have always found the views of Indians, writing off Pakistan, ``in the future,`` vis-a-vis India, quite amusing. These views were around in 47, and they still seem to be around, i.e. India, the big power, and Pakistan not being able to survive. I believe Nehru held similar views, and apparently so do many Indians today :-)

But somehow or the other, Pakistan still keeps up itself in the picture, with India. And despite being eight times its size, India is still mentioned in the same breath as Pakistan, in the rest of the world. And the gap between an Indian and a Pakistani`s lifestyle has significantly shrunk from 47, not increased. To the point that Pakistan actually overtook India for a few decades, even though, it was way behind India, at them time of the partition. In fact, if you take the average growth rate of the two countries, since 47, Pakistan`s has been quite a bit higher in every decade, except 90s.

So, I hope Indians don`t write off Pakistan, too soon. They have been incorrectly trying to do so, for fifty years.

I hope the current peace process is not based on the issues you have mentioned. Similar Indian views did not work in 47, and actually caused the problem, and they did will not work now. I think both countries, specifically India (going by your comments) need to get out of this, ``global power`` thinking and solve their internal problems of poverty etc.

My guess is that India and Pakistan are going into this peace process, because both have realized that there is no military solution to Kashmir. Pakistan knows it cannot take it militarily. And India has realized that it cannot control it militarily. If it were only the former, then I doubt India would have agreed to negotiate.

Balochistan, Sarhad, NA and Sindh do need more attention of Islamabad than Kashmir and the so-called South Asia. The sooner Islamabad realizes this fact the better it would be for Pakistan.

I think we have all been conditioned to be cynical mainly by the nature of what has transpired until recently. Add to that what may have motivated the leaders to shake hands again - Vajpayee desiring a place in history and Musharraf wanting to, well, continue to live in good health. There hasn`t really been a fundamental change in the attitudes of indians and pakistanis toward each other and kashmir is still there. It may be that if cultural exhanges and trade are allowed to develop, a mutually acceptable solution will also present itself. A long-lasting solution can come about only if pak military goes back to the barracks. Any agreement with the military has no lasting value.

Ammaroo at # 9:

Change is better made slowly and gradually. Since the two countries have been simmering in hatred for each other for long, the situation you mentioned is but natural. Although this is a long drawn process, we cannot give up. We will have to develop goodwill by not talking about contentious issues at the outset. Peace is what the inhabitants of Asian sub-continent deserve even though there would be tough opposition from extremists from both the sides.

Overcoming the opposition from hate mongers and extremists (arjuns, jays the passive gays, peeing mishras, mumbaikers, ballukhans being their representatives on this website) will remain the main challenge.

Doom-sayers will never see the rays of hope nor the gloomy ever acknowledge that there is a wave of optimism.
Too bad, they are the losers! As for others who believe in goodness of common humans, let us savor the moment as we tend to its efflorescence!!

I think the present thaw in Indo-Pak relations is hapenning because of our competitive impulses and not because we have both changed our minds. From India`s perspective, the competition with Pakistan is basically over, because India has taken a big lead in development. It does not believe that Pakistan can offer any serious challenge to India`s economic might and militarily it cannot change the status quo. As time progresses, the gap will only increase and soon become irreversible. India is now setting its competitive impulses towards China and it wishes to become a global player. The Indo-Pak rivalry is becoming a liability and bogging India down. Hence it wants to be ``nice`` to Pakistan and move on towards realizing greater objectives. There are also prospects of cheaper energy from Iran and Central Asia via Pakistan and the opening up of those markets to Indian goods, which can only help accelerate India`s development even further.
From Pakistan`s perspective, the realization is setting in that Pakistan cannot compete with India if the status quo continues. Pakistan also realizes that India has taken a huge lead on the global stage and there is very little that it can do to stop the Indian juggernaut. Also it has no hopes of getting any concessions on Kashmir in the current scenario. The only option for Pakistan is to develop its economy and compete on the economic front, which requires peace with India. Peace with India may also result in some softening of Indian stand on Kashmir and let Pakistan share in the administration of that province in some fashion. If Pakistan does not follow this option, it will only fall behind India to such an extent that it will be completely sidelined in South Asia. Even Kashmiris, who still have a soft corner for Pakistan, will not be interested in the future to leave a economically prosperous country and knowingly join a poorer nation.
So the events that are unfolding right now are due to the vested interests of both the nations, not in spite of them.

I have a strange feeling that this time around, it maybe for real. I had always stated that Musharraf and Vajpayee genuinely seem to want peace. And are in a pretty powerful position to bring it about.

As for public opinion, I do not have access to polls in India, but in Pakistan 87% of the people want peace with India, through talks. That is a huge majority. The poll was taken by an Indian news magazine.

Alongwith this, one needs to take into account that some major concessions have been made. Some which I had hihglighted a long time ago, that needed to be made, in my opinion:

I haven`t read the details of the agreement, but Free Trade is no small thing. I have always thought that once a group starts trading, businessmen start dominating, and they are the best people for conflict resolution, because they have money tied into a workable long term solution; while politicians do not.

Secondly, Pakistan`s statement that it is willing to move beyond UN Resolutions is historic. It is no small matter. It is an open indication that Pakistan has removed its claim to Kashmir and is willing to accept anything decided by the Kashmiris, including independence, i.e. Pakistan has given up its efforts to take Kashmir from India. It has thus now accepted it as a human rights struggle, not a geographic one. Which is how it should be viewed.

India`s official agreement to discuss and solve Kashmir, with Pakistan, is not small statement either. Previously, India did not even consider it an issue, i.e. it refused to recognize that Kashmiris had a problem. Obviously India knows that Pakistani Kashmiris do not have a problem with Pakistan. So the above is now a subtle admission from India that Kashmiris are not happy with India and that Pakistan is part of the solution to the problem in Indian Kashmir.

There is only one thing left, and that would be for India to officially move away from atut-ang. That would be the Indian equivalent of Pakistan moving away from UN Resolutions. I don`t think India would openly state that, but I think it is moving towards a solution that would be based on Kashmir not being an atut-ang of India. By recognizing it as a problem, and accepting Pakistan as an involved and affected party, it has basically accepted the non-atut-ang formula.

To the best of my knowledge, none of the above had officially been ever done before.

Now, what will be the results, no one knows. But it is a solid start and a clear shift from historic positions. I think one more step should be taken and that should be the complete opening of visas from both sides. Even if India doesn`t do it, Pakistan should. That would remove the misconceptions created in the minds of the people, who have little knowledge about each other. My opinion has been that those misconceptions are far higher in Indian minds than in Pakistani minds, because Pakistanis seem to have far more access to things Indian (movies, expatriates, relatives etc.) than vice-versa. So Pakistan will greatly benefit from opening the visas.

In the worst case scenario, someone could come into power and totally undo all this, in one day. But I think Vajpayee and BJP will win the next Indian election, comfortably. Economy is good, and Congress leadership is in tatters. Musharraf obviously isn`t going anywhere either. And, over a time period, he must have consolidated the top command of the Army with individuals that hold views similar to his. And the PPP and PML and all other parties, except MMA, support this process. Even the MMA has come out in favor to some extent. Fazl ur Rahman, the head of MMA, and the most powerful maulvi in Pakistan, had a very successful tour of India.

The Pakistan press (haven`t read the Urdu press much) is overwhelmingly pro this process.

The Kashmiri leadership is pro this process also.

So if Musharraf and Vajpayee keep running the ship, I think, in a few years, things maybe very different from yesteryears, between India and Pakistan. And by that time, if the Free Trade gets established, then the process may become impossible to undo.

First of all, the goodwill is developed and misunderstanding removed only gradually. So we should not feel let down if there is a slow progress or even some regression in the current trends between India and Pakistan.

Let Indians and Pakistanis experiment with real rapprochement and allow themselves the benefits that a positive amity among neighbors brings.

I am pleased with the general approval that Vajpayee-Musharraf efforts have received at Chowk. Even the skeptics and un-believers have expressed a hope underlying their distrust of the potential good. Let them realize that their apprehensions and cynicisms are also rooted in the fanaticlly nationalistic propaganda and the trauma of division of India that the Western Powers condoned and encouraged around the middle of the twentieth century.

General conclusion from the societies that have existed in the human history is that as long as the essential structure of the positive development of the masses is assured the more inclusive a society the happier and more prosperous it is. This is so, because the negativism hurts most those who harbor it.

Despite all the finger pointing by Indian government at Pakistani Military and Military Mullah Alliance in power and Pakistani government not liking BJP, both parties benefit from the situation in other country. In Pakistan every fifth article being against BJP India (Other 4 being against America) and excess of articles about Pakistani government in Indian press, the fact remains that they give inflaming material to hardliners in both countries translated into vote in India and ``support`` in Pakistan. Both BJP and military/ mullahs lose in thawing of relations between India and Pakistan. However, neither side can openly support the supporting hand from across the border for politically incorrect reasons.

My memory of SAARC meeting was the BBC picture of Musharraf-Vajpai shaking hands and immediately I felt like making fun of it rather than taking it seriously. Here are two lines as caption to the handshaking picture.

balle balle, hath milanday dO bhayyay
shava shava hath milanday dO bhayyay

sada bhayya syed hega tuhada bhayya baahman
likhda aj kujh jay ker jeonda honda ustad daman

balle balle..... ;))

feroz saheb:
Umeed par duniya qaayam hai. Agar India cricket mein Australia ko hara sakta hai tau sab kuchh mumkin hai :-)
The answer to your pessism lies in your own post. You say,
``I see no reason to rejoice, because what both India and Pakistan have embarked upon is not a 100 meter sprint, but a marathon and the race has simply began and the end of the race, has not been reached, yet.``
...it is precisely because they have embarked upon a marathon that there are reasons to be optimistic. You also say,
``For peace to really exist, there has to be radical paradigmic shift in the mental conceptualization of Indians and Pakistanis vis-a-vis each other. There has to be an institutional change in the manner in, which India and Pakistan think and view each other. The politicans who signed this, so called historic agreement, have to convince their domestic constituencies that this, indeed, is the path of rationality and prosperity. ``
This conceptualization cannot happen in a sprint. But a slow, deliberate progress is exactly the prescription required to accomplish a change in the mindset of the people. What you forget is that the relationship -especially between Pak and North India- is not one of pure hate but of love-hate. If the interlocutors are sincere and if a long period of peaceful coexistence is allowed between the two countries, a climate of compromise will ensue where the politicians could show flexibility without losing too much support with their constituents.