Musharraf Will Die

The chances of Musharraf being killed are quite high. I would say 50/50 that he survives or is killed.

I believe Rajiv Gandhi was the most highly gaurded leader in the world. However, he was killed. As was Indira Gandhi. Both victims of militant situations, they had themselves unleashed, but could not control.

Pakistan did the same in Afghanistan. However, Pakistan has one advantage. It was (unwillingly) able to get out of the situation, before it reached gargantuan proportions. The other advantage that Musharraf personally has is that he is not a politician. He does not have to meet and shake hands with the public, like Rajiv and Indira had to do. And he already knows that he is under a huge a threat, so he is pre-prepared for it. If the security for the Indian cricketers is so high, then imagine what the security for Musharraf must be.

There is another thing going for Musharraf, which one cannot get from this site: Once one gets passed the Pakistani chattering classes and english-speaking,``ïntellectuals,`` and maulvi brigade, it turns out that Musharraf is actually quite popular in Pakistan. In fact, quite a bit more popular than most leaders in their own countries:

``A vast majority of Pakistanis, about 86 per cent, rates President Pervez Musharraf favourably, says a survey by a major American organization.

The report by the Washington-based Pew Research Center also says that 60 per cent Pakistanis view President Musharraf ``very favourably.`` This is ``by far the highest rating of any leader in the survey,`` says poll director Andrew Kohut. ``Pakistanis expressed highly favourable opinions of their president.``

The Pew Research Center is a non-profit and non-governmental organization, which specializes in opinion surveys. Its reports are widely respected in Washington`s academic circles.`` (http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/19/top4.htm)

I think Indira is the better example to compare Musharraf with rather than Rajiv, in terms of assassination.

Brilliant, just brilliant even tho it`s not quite satire. Reality slightly distorted, more like.
There`s a story of an indian king who it was ordained would die from a snake bite. He isolates himself and makes himself quite out of reach, or so he thinks. A tiny snake burrowed in a fruit brought to him does him in.
Remember that Musharraf`s highly secret schedule was leaked to his would-be assassins the last time round. He has enemies within.
I quite liked your analogy of grievances nursed over generations to photocopying. And the uncanny connection between Ladin and Nidal.
How did the rash of terrorist incidents of the sixties eventually stop?

So what if musharaff is assassinated? Did the assassination Rajiv Gandhi change anything? The entire subcontinent ``did not capitulates and goes up in flames`` (as you put it) when Rajiv was assassinated, nor will it go up in flames if anything (God forbid) should happen to musharaff. Wake up and smell the coffee, Shahid sahib.

The fact is that the forces of history carry much more weight than individual personalities. And the forces of history tell us that the only thing that will die is the terrorist threat that plagues civilized societies. So you can stop shaking in your pants about mullahs getting mad - mullahs understand only one language, and that is the danda. And now that the US has shown them the danda, they dont go out on the streets like they were doing a couple of years ago when they thought the US soldiers were ``chocolate cream soldiers`` (as that clown Gen Hamid Gul put it at the time). It is only cowards like you whom mullahs despise as ``liberals`` and only cowards like you whom they scare with their threats. Musharaff, thank God, is made of stronger stuff, and the Pakistani jawans thank God are made of stronger stuff.

You forget one important plot twist which could save your tainted hero: It is a longstanding tradition of Pakistani leaders in hot water to pick a fight with India in Kashmir to detooth their domestic opponents.

April 18 the cricket team returns to India, sometime in May the snows along the LOC melt. Indo-Pak talks are scheduled for June-July. July-August Musharraf and co throw a hissy fit at Indian `intransigence` and then there is all of August - December to launch attacks in Kashmir and make coochy-coo with even his most disaffected Army, ISI and jihadi friends. The US government will claim to be too preoccupied with elections to go out on a limb and reign in its major non-NATO ally.

Howzzat?

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Sometime insult in public is worse than death. Imagine if Musharraf was going to Lahore Stadium to watch Pakistan/ India one day cricket match, sitting besides the guest A. B. Vajpai and hearing loud and clear, ``Musharraf kutta haye haye`` from public, in between cheering slogans for the game. Actually robbers` stories are quite popular around the world, like Jesse James, Bonny and Clyde here in the USA and Sultana Daku in subcontienet......add to that Syed Pervez Musharraf Dehlavi Lutera or something like that...

#2 by sadna

you post clearly indicates your desire to start ``message board`` war with Pakistanis.

or

Howzzat? ICC can charge you with ``match fixing`` for knowing the future of Pakistan.

or
you can start advertising on Zee TV as ``sanda mai`` who can look into future.....

or atleast, tell us what will happen tomorrow and day after....

The USA has a strange dilemma on its hands. A dilemma, mostly, of its own making. If we give the USA the benefit of the doublt, and assume that its real aim in the Middle East is not WMD or Al-Qaeda, but actually introducing democracy, then it is caught between a rock and a hard place. Due to this, until the USA changes course, it will never be able to get rid of, ``terrorism.``

If there is ever a country that needs to make a U-turn on policies, it is the USA - more so than even Pakistan in Afghanistan.

According to a survey in Economist ??(I can`t recall the exact name of source), amongst Arabs on the street, the most disliked non-Arab countries in the world are Israel and USA. While two of the most liked non-Arab countries are Iran and France. This proves that the Arab hatred is specifically towards the USA, and not towards the West in general, nor towards democracy etc.

Due to this, any democratic govt. that occurs in the Middle East will be very very anti-USA and anti-Israel. If democracy emerges in Jordan, the govt. will break off its treaties with Israel, since Jordan is a majority Palestinian state. If it occurs in Saudi Arab, it will be a religious govt, and the govt. will make it much more difficult for the USA to gain access to oil. A democratic Egypt will also be religious and very anti-USA. A demcoratic Iraq will be religious and sooner or later anti-USA. Iran is already in that direction. In Pakistan, not a single democratic party can afford to openly ally itself with the USA.

So on and so forth.

This is why the USA has always supported dictatorships in the Middle East, and this is why it is caught in a corner in Iraq, where its own choice for the head of Iraq (Chalabi) is not going to make it to the top. Hence the USA`s desire to delay elections, under the pretence of poor infrastructure. When ironically, it is accelerating elections in Afghanistan, where the infrastructure is much poorer. Primarily since its own man, Karzai, is at the top.

At the crux of this, lies the USA one-sided support of Israel. Until that issue is solved fairly, and until the USA stops single-handedly vetoing UN resolutions, asking Israel to play fair, which are even supported by all of the EU, nothing much will happen on the terrorism front. Primarily because, Arabs consider USA, rightly or wrongly, to be even a bigger terrorists.

After talking to so many Christian and Muslim Arabs, I have come to the conclusion that Osama would beat Bush, in a free and fair election, in any Arab country.

I am for the operation in Waziristan. But not because it solves USA`s problems. I support it because it solves Pakistan`s problems. And because I feel these tribal leaders have been ripping off Pakistan for too long.

At the same, the USA needs to realize that its continous pressure on various countries, including Pakistan, is polarizing these countries domestically, leading too all kinds of problems. Spain has lost a leadership that was quite efficient, in addition to facing terrorism. England may lose one also, and may face terrorism. Turkey has faced terrorism. Iraq may end up in civil war. Saudi Arabia has faced it. Pakistan has faced terrorism. The Muslim world, in general, is heavily split, with populations that hate the USA, and govts. that must support the USA to survive.

This is a dangerous scenario.

It is about time the USA played fair, and looked at what is doing to promote this terrorism, by vetoing every resolution regarding Israel. Rather than only expecting its, ``allies`` to, ``do more.``

The solution to the end of terrorism does not lie in Waziristan. That is only a short term solution. The long-term solution lies in Tel-Aviv and Washington DC. Unfortunately, no country is strong enough to force USA and Israel to do a, ``U-turn`` on their policies.

In the process, Pakistan may end up losing a President, who is doing a pretty good job for his country (at least in the view of an overwhelming number of Pakisatanis)

I just read the teaser on Chowk for the said article. It made me wonder if we have astrologers or visionaries holding that globe or goblet that could assist in reading what lied ahead ?

With due respect...who cares!

If he is meant to stay, he will stay. If not, he will leave or will be made to leave. That`s the natural cycle of life. Why make an issue out of it ?

for once tahmed is right ...``The fact is that the armed of pakistan carry much more weight than individual personalities``............. nothing will change if musharraf keels over tomorrow - the people of pakistan will continue to be ruled by the fauji foundation and have the same old corn flakes for breakfast .............

Musharaff won`t go until he has outlived his usefulness to the puppeteers behind him. Remember Zia who was blown out of the sky when the manna stopped raining from the U.S.. Mushy hasn`t reached that stage.

If the U.S. is smart, it will straitjacket him vis-a-vis Kashmir and put the blinders of total development of Pakistan on his eyes. In fact, that is what they have been doing over the last few years and the results are starting to show. The puppeteers have the most highly developed olifactory organs as far as the smell of money is concerned and will move to profiting using constructive ways of commerce and trade rather than keeping Pakistan on the boil, if such an avenue is opened to them.

India`s criminal politicians who profited from straitjacketing the Indian people with socialism for 40+ years have now become the loudest trumpeteers for the cause of capitalism (including die-hard commie Bengali leaders). These parasites now control tons of resources including real-estate, industry and the like in the new Indian economy. The same may happen to those who profited from pimping Pakistan to the rest of the world since it`s Indepedence. You cannot wish these criminals away from under-developed societies of ours but at least in this way, the damage they do to our societies is relatively less.

Ultimately, it is all about money in our part of the world.

Pakistan`s tribal areas are in a sort of Arabisation that we saw in Afghanistan during the Taliban. The quicker we rid them the better. I tend to agree with the post by Firzok on the tribal areas.

The President of Pakistan is a prime target and the militants will pursue it relentlessly. This is a serious situation and I hope that the security staff is fully and imaginatively alive to it.

Despite a child of opportunity, Mussarraf is leading the way purposefully. He has challenged the status quo which no one ever could. He needs to stay long enough and beyond to ensure that the shifts in the policy become enduring.

Tahmed
What stronger stuff? In your dad`s time, they killed and raped Bengalis calling them terrorists, and later went to pay tribute to their graves calling them freedom fighter. Now they are calling the same people they trained and fed and armed terrorists... who knows what tommorow has in store..


This is the only army which can only conquer its own people, again and again.

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LOL!

Unlike the rest of Pakistan, Pakistani army`s sense of institutionalism does not depend on one person and if Musharraf should die, the army leadership will continue its tradition of self interested policies. Pakistan will not go up in flames on the death of one person. Z. A. Bhutto thought that it would and so did Zia-ul-Haq, but Pakistan survived those two and it will survive Musharraf.

I agree with tahmed32. Pakistan and Pakistanis are well aware that they are caught in a vortex of history, which is forcing them towards a cross-roads of destiny. People disagree with Musharraf, but most observers failure, like yours, is their refusal to acknowledge the realism of the average Pakistani. Pakistanis have heard too many lies and they have suffered too many times to ever believe in the words of salvation by a promisary messiah and to them, Musharraf is not a messiah, but in the company of would be messiahs, he is the best from a worse lot.

Ciao