Shiners versus Whiners; it’s Economics, Stupid

This is a time of conflicting emotions for me, on one hand I am happy to see Murli Manohar Joshi and his ilk go. But the fact that the commies have power sends a chill up my spine. I hope and pray that Manmohan Singh and P. Chitambram can fend them off.

Regards,

Faruk

Harish:
Your analogy with Narsimha Rao`s defeat is quite apt. Then too, the ``shiners`` were surprised how a govt. that had opened up India could suffer such a humiliating defeat. As you pointed out, Narsimha Rao also became a victim of his own cunning. Since everyone at that time -as always- was complaining about corruption, he made it his own issue by the hawala transaction and, by roping in his known enemies within the Congress, tried to kill two birds with one stone. However, the hawala scandal rebounded on him.
It is a truism that poor people count more than the well-off in the Indian elections, both because they are more numerous and because they are more likely to exercise their vote than the better-off. Vajpayee`s boys should have paid more attention to what happened in the 1996 elections. They didn`t, and paid the price.

the writer is on the mark.Middle class India doesn`t vote.They think it is beneath their dignity to stand in a line with their poorer brethren.They would rather utilize their holiday reading about Bill gates or some other white man who makes a lot of money.I just returned from a trip to India and i had to retch with disgust after spending time with the new breed of bourgeois-smarmy,oily,smug and bigoted.Cheap imitations of corporate kiss-asses in the developed world is what they all are.The common man always rules anywhere and he has in India.``He` not only gave that pompous old ass vajpayee a kick out the door he snubbed all the bourgeois by electing a naturalized indian christian woman from italy to lord it over all.Oh, how the oily, fat, bullying middle class indian matron must be fuming right now.hehe.reality check , folks .another fork in the road.

Gujju Bania:

Usually I disagree with you but heck, I am getting sick of Pakistani leftists exulting over the Commie victory in India. Gimme the Jamaat e Islami calling Hindus idol worshippers any day.

I would rather be condemned for being an idol worshipper then congratulated for my country electing Commies :(

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This is what I posted in ``India Votes``.

Many tend to think that the narrow vertical pockets of prosperity called SHINNING INDIA would face some reversal due to presence of the left and the electrol promise of the Congress. I feel that unlike the FABIAN SOCIALISM OF Nehru, India is now tied to the international economics, multinationalism and trans nationalism. Something like this will now be impossible to reverse. Secondly, with the WTO in force, it will not be possible to give subsidies in electricity etc to farmers, as it appears was the promise made in the electrol rallies. So would we see stronger opposition from India, China and South Africa in the next round of WTO talks. Perhaps this is how the internal aspirations and agendas will frame the political economy.This notwithstanding, India`s dependency on the West will increase.

I tend to agree with Tahmed. Afterall, on the same board, we had many friends who had shown unflinching faith in the permanance of the growth of Indian economy. Why do they feel so vulnerable now?

My assessment is that the new Government will not be able to deliver on all its promises. The motorway from Aghra to Delhi will go ahead and provide jobs to many people and invigorate local economies. Contrary to the criticism of the communist party, efficiency will show in shorter travelling times/less maintainance, rather than the cost of Toll Plazas.

So the future government will have to seperate the biases from stark realities/economic exegencies. If so be it, the backwash may cause the electrorate to loose the confidence, followed by early elections and BJP crawling back.

SO BEAWARE OF THIS BACKWASH. IT USUALLY COMES IN THE IDES.

cheeeerios India!

[The rising Indian middle class, then, was the salaried ‘whiner’ who complained of being the first target of all budgets. The educated losers formed a huge and inordinately influential majority. Though technically, Chidambaram`s Income Tax reforms had quietened them after he brought the taxation policy on par with South Asian nations, and even inspired the biggest Indian mop up of black money through his successful Voluntary Disclosure Scheme....]

Typical Indian clap-trap.

Pray tell us, exactly how much black money was held by the ``middle class`` of India? The salaried `whiners` had their income tax deducted at source -- meaning, from the paycheck.

It is the Birlas, the Singhanias, the Chhabrias, the Hindujas, the Ambanis -- the folks who owned the companies -- who could cook their books and not pay their share of the taxes.

You must have gone to the same school as Jairam Ramesh.

Yes, we in India have to trace everything to the ONE man who initiated the liberalization process.

According to you, Harish, it is Narasimha Rao. According to true-red Congresswallahs, it is Rajiv Gandhi.

I think we need to go further than that.

There would have been no Narasimha Rao but for that single sperm that fertilized the egg in his mama`s uterus.

Let us all worship at the altar of the sperm!

Wow, that REALLY explains the shiv ling, doesn`t it?

Nicely done Harish. Like I said in a related topic, when I saw the India being advertised on many Indian TV channels, I thought this was not the India I visited as a collage student back in the mid-80s. Had it really changed so much? It was just too unreal. As if all these channels and free-market economists were celeberating only a particuler subculture. And it was only this subculture that was shining. But the world only got to see this. This subculture pretending to be the new India. All of it. Alas, as my cynical, ``neo-Marxist`` sense had concluded, it was nothing but an elaborate cherade. Even a hoax of sorts. A farce. The lofty excitability of teenaged globalization fantasy. And I just loved the shocked expressions of most middleclass Indian urbanites. As if asking: ``Ab kya hoga? Hum phir sey old fashioned hojain gey?`` The truth is, mejority of Indians tho kabi ``modern`` hoey hi nahi thay.

rgds,
NfP

Harish:

...being in media one question for you...

--how come every pollster came up short?

(ok some follow up qeries too;))

--what changes would you/they envisage in future polling
--have the `un-washed` been polled with the `usual` accuracy before?

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Good analysis.

BJP indeed took two bulls by the horns, First, the Nuclear Issue and secondly, the Economic Turnround. With people like Brijesh Misra and Jaswant Singh, it would be naive to think that they brushed aside the spectre of being rejected by the poor masses. Pakistan under ayub too passed through a similar decade of neck breaking progress. However, in the capitalist, Harvard imposed system, the wealth got accumulated in few hands called the 22 families. Whether some one agrees or not, the mommentum of that cahnge continues to move Pakistan`s economy even today. On this account I feel that BJP put the interests of the country before the interestS of electoral politics and THREE CHEERS TO THEM!

I dont agree with the minimilist economic theory. I think BJP took a gamble.

Could we draw comparisons between the India of today and Pakistan of the 60s.

I don`t agree with the basic assumption that the federal government was rejected. I think that people vote in MPs on the same grounds they vote in MLAs...local issues of development rather then a far reaching national vision. The same people who voted for a Congress MP out of khunnas for the sitting BJP one but may still have preferred Vajpayee as the national leader. If this is an indictment of anything, it is of the parliamentary system and demonstrates the need for a Presidential one.