Shatranj ke Khiladi

re:this article
If the pitch of the article is that India and Pak should get their acts together if they do not want to be pawns in the great game, then i will say: well said.
India is not in the same league as China. The big worry for US is the imminent confrontation over Taiwan and the increasing capability of Chinese Navy which might someday come to dominate the sealanes to Japan, Singapore.
US may want India to become powerful to counter China at sea. In this respect one can now read news of increasing US-India co-operation at sea.
US does not see China as an economic threat; at least not at present. Somebody said an interesing nugget and i do not know if it is true. That China holds billions of dollars of US Treasury bonds and the day it decides to convert it into Euro, financial markets will be in a tizzy and the value of dollar will nosedive. I am not a financial expert, so i do not know if this is true.
Let us also not forget that China`s main market is US, where most of its manufactured goods go.
China wants peace with India so that its southern borders are tranquil and it can concentrate on its development of defense forces to counteract future threat from US.
Where does all this leave India and Pak?
India and Pak are fritting away energy on Kashmir while the world is moving forward. It is time the 2 countries solved this problem and moved on to better things. India and Pak need to fight but not over Kashmir or in the battlefield but over a match of Cricket in the Cricket field. Sky is the limit for cooperation. I think Mushy is finally changing and India has a good hearted P.M and the combo may do what others in the past could not. Let us wait and see.
Sridhar

re:#10 by rahulmal
That is why it makes eminent sense for India to ally itself with USA (like Turkey and Israel have) and reap the benefits.
Sridhar

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Re: rsridhar:

``I think Mushy is finally changing``
This is giving too much credence to musharraf`s intent behind his actions. Mush or for that matter, Pakistan ruling establishment has had investments in creating this bad blood and with Mulla power always there to be exploited, Indian state cannot really trust the Gov. of Pak.

Re: # 61
Also, LALA`YA
Humidity is not as low ``as your intellect`` in Delhi.

#55

sardar sala sardar hi reh gaya.

In a city that doesnt lack natural sunlight, high temperatures, low humidity, he wants to use an electric dryer (that too I bet is like 2-3 KW, now when his electricity bill comes in, he will crib again)

amit #52,
Your argument about joint economic powerhouse does not make sense as of today. In almost all Pakistani exports, India is a rival be it textiles, rice, etc. so what will a joint market achieve? Maybe after years of economic growth things might change, and two countries would not be competing for selling the same commodity, but not as of today.

BongDong cockroach.

Try drying your clothes in Monsoons.
I have access to 24/7/365 cloth drying without worrying about Pollution turning my White shorts black or Cows or Dogs jumping the fence and tearing clothes.

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Re:vivek#62

The greatest value of Pakistan is in its becoming a transit hub in Asia connecting West Asia, Central Asia and India. You can foresee oil and natural gas pipelines going from Central asia/West asia to India. You can also foresee road/rail links to transport India`s manufactured goods to Central asia/West asia. This is a huge win-win for all the parties. The promotion of trade across these regions can dramatically alter the economic landscape. With economic growth, there is lesser incentive for terrorism. As a transit hub, Pakistan can make mega bucks. Besides overall economic benefit to India, it can also lead to greater employment for muslims in India, as they can take a lead in liaisoning with these regions. If you add China to the mix, the potential is even higher.

#67 by amit on April 18, 2005 2:27pm PT


You can foresee oil and natural gas pipelines going from Central asia/West asia to India.


Have you ever seen a map of the central asian oil reserves? That oil isn`t going through Pakiland...it`s going through Russia/Georgia/Turkey....

The only possible pipeline coming through Pakiland is the one carrying natural gas from turkmenistan....and that too has to pass through the badlands of Afghanistan....

amit,
The central asian pipeline isnt going to take off because it passes through the most unstable region in the world - Afghanistan. Besides pipelines will not give any major employment to transit regions. On the other hand the opening of the markets could really jeopardise Pakistani traders, they would be faced with cheaper products. Believe me, its a real threat. I dont think China considers economics with Ind-Pak as worth its time. All that hardware-software stuff was for the media.

....``sardar sala sardar hi reh gaya. ...``
bongdongs:61


It seems thanklessness has become our lot. You MUST rather pray that their is always an abundance of sardars around you. Well, do not expect them to de-sardaar themselves one they bacome your sala.

Life in India and now abroad is colorful and rich because of these guys. You guys should rather occupy sardaars and give-up on Kashmir. Life would be much more smiles & laughter. It might lessen the abysmal poverty and starvation which is so blatantly and shamelessly being cut-&-pasted over by IT-rats.

#63 by delhiwala on April 18, 2005 1:42pm PT


I am feeling guilty somewhere in my layers of heart that I am actually comparing the poverty of 2 nations.


Poverty is only relevant when you consider the fact that the poorer country(i.e. Pakiland) is the one trying to change the status quo in Kashmir...

Does India have poor people? heck yes....but is it trying to get Pakiland occupied Kashmir back? no...most Indians don`t care...

Does Pakiland have poor people? heck yes...a higher percentage than India...but the pakis want the ``kashmir issue resolved``(i.e. they want Kashmir on a platter) before they`ll think of their poor people....which is why the dumbass pakis don`t have anything close to the IITs but they have dozens of jihadi groups....

It`s not about who`s poor...both are..it`s about what you`re trying to do about the poverty...India can comfortably maintain the status quo in Kashmir even while it reduces poverty...Pakiland can`t grab Kashmir while reducing poverty at the same time...the numbers don`t lie...in the decade when the deluded pakis thought they were ``bleeding India``, their economy and the corresponding HDI numbers have gone down the drain...

#70 by echoboom on April 18, 2005 2:42pm PT


give-up on Kashmir. Life would be much more smiles & laughter. It might lessen the abysmal poverty and starvation which is so blatantly and shamelessly being cut-&-pasted over by IT-rats.


delhiwalla: this is a perfect example of what i mean...pakiland has a higher % of poor people but the pakis are obsessed with changing the status quo in Kashmir...something they`ve failed to do through insurgencies and wars....

So whether India is poor is irrelevant....It`s what you do when you`re poor that matters...you could ignore you poverty and try to nurture militant Islam to change the status quo...or you could not try to change the status quo in Kashmir and reduce poverty....

vivek/amit: There is an interesting situation developing in South Asia. And I think much of the motivation for discussing Kashmir etc. from the Indian side, is based on this.

India imports a giant portion of its energy needs. Uptil the last decade, since India`s economy was growing at 3-4%, its energy needs weren`t quite that high. Now for India`s economy to continue to grow, it has to have energy. Energy is the oxygen of a growing economy. IT graduates can only grow an economy to a certain point.

To get an idea of how little energy the average Indian currently uses, consider the following statistic: I read an article that stated that India, with a population, more than seven times that of Pakistan, uses the same amount of natural gas as all of Pakistan, i.e. at the moment, the average Pakistani uses seven times the natural gas as the average Indian.

At the very least, India will want to increase that usage 7 fold. Then to grow, the way you are suggesting, it may have to increase it 30 fold, or some similar large number. If it cannot, then it won`t be able to grow, regardless of what happens.

Where is India going to get all this energy from?

There is only one way, and that is from Central Asia and Iran. And Pakistan sits smack in the middle. India could try to ship it over from the Persian Gulf, but that would be too expensive, and would put it into direct competiton with Europeans and Americans (and Japanese). It can get some from the East and SouthEast. But eventually it will have to go through Pakistan towards the West and Northwest.

Granted, Pakistan will get transit fees. But after a while, if Pakistan`s economy keeps growing at its current pace of expected 7-8%+ growth, those transit fees will not be worth much. $2 billion sounds like a lot today, but if more guys in Pakistan can set up a housing society worth $11 billion (like Bahria Town), then $2 billion won`t be much. Transit pipelines will not create any jobs in Pakistan either.

This is where India has (or will) have a direct dependency on Pakistan, i.e. it cannot meet its future energy needs without Pakistan. And if it cannot meet those, then it cannot grow. And it cannot, then, fulfill Dost Mittar`s dreams of India becoming a, ``player,`` before DM passes onto the heavens........

Pakistan has no such dependency on India. It has direct access to Iran and to some extent to Central Asia (via Afghanistan, which needs Pakistan a hell of a lot). Obviously, Pakistan is better off trading with India, than not trading with India, but it is not do-or-die for its growth.

Sooner or later, after all these cricket series and people-to-people stuff, Pakistan is going to ask for the big kahuna, i.e. demilitarization of Kashmir, and an end to atut-ang, with an independent Kashmir Valley. In return, Pakistan dropping its UN stance (which it has already agreed to do, if India drops atut-ang), and Pakistan giving India open access to transit anything and everything it needs.

This is a line of thought that Indian analysts should be concentrating on and discussing, in regard to how India should approach Pakistan and what it can and cannot offer to Pakistan..........Will India be ready to drop atut-ang, in return for energy? That is the decision towards where everything is headed............