Iranian Puzzle

#32

Bravo Madani-saheb! if only more of your countrymen shared the clarity of your vision!!

Re: # 37 Netizen

With rapidly expanding industrial base and only automation as an answer to growing demand what would the countries like India and China do with their immensely large populations. In western world, a negative population growth has kept the sanity of society intact when workforce faced the challenges of automation. I think in next 50 years the production will move to smaller, sparsely populated countries like Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Burma, nepal etc. What do you think.

Re: # 21 Charlie

``US have realized that it can`t keep the first spot for much longer time. With their growth rate, Chinese economy is going to be the biggest economy in the world within a decade. India is almost equal to the size of Japanese economy and now is going to be the third economy in the world. With the growth rate as that of India, economy of US + India will always remain larger than chinese economy. So for Americans, India is a suitable ally to save the system on which US infrastructure is based. Indians never feel it difficult to adopt them withj changing time (that`s what I declared submission), so they have adopted well in this situation.``

As I have said in earlier posts, very large economies of China and india will be because of their huge population. Definitely it is better than what it was earlier but you need to look at GNP/capita which I think will still be lower than the western world (but higher compared to decades back).

``We need to realize the value of human resources. Human resources if developed well are the biggest asset of a nation. Specially in 21st century, it will make or break he nations. Europeans have not enough human resources. Their baby boom generation is old enough. New generation is not willing to produce more people. They are afraid of skilled migrants entering Europe. They are afraid of opening themselves in front of the world. India and China have already a lot of human resources and they have positively started exploiting these resources.``

Thats true. But if you look at the growth rates, its falling in a region/country which is getting industrialized. india is still growing but at a lower level than previously. Infact china has its own problem of ageing, because of 1 child policy. but they are in a better shape than the europeans with regard to that.

``I am sometimes afraid of these chinese. Their ``remaining low and advancing silently`` makes me worried. While west has some set of ethical value in the name of democracy, freedom etc (althouygh being misused now), nobody knows what these chinese are upto. The brutal way they have started capturing world markets, will they be same if they starting colonizing? ``

The same thing happened during jap invasion of corporate america in 80`s. people thought that the japs were going to buy off the entire country. THey entered the memory business and dominated it. But the U.S. companies moved to upscale industries and the japs got competition from koreans. THe chinese are also riding high on mafg but there are a few chink in their armor, like the currency rate. With a few chinese companies bidding/buying u.s. companies it would be interesting to see what happens next.

Re: # 32 ahmedmadani:

I am sorry to disappoint you, I am a hindu (by culture) and indian by nationality. My post #31 was more towards the ground reality than to debase/ridicule anyone. What I was trying to say is that even though india has the potential and is moving in the right direction (at varying pace) it is still not there yet. It will take decades of diligent work from all sections of society.

VanGogh,

Wish it were that easy. Our `vulgar` movies are really such a huge hit in Pakistan and people like Ahmedmadani who just cant have enough of it. And whatever their religion Arabs have a keen sense of history and they credit the entire subcontinental history and its civilisational baggage to India only. And with good reason too since Pakis dont seem to want it. Iran and Iraq for instance, have had traditional ties with India for over a millenia and their people, particularly shiite community, have great appreciation and respect for India and her people. India would have been an full OIC member long back if not for repeated objections from Pakistan. Last time was in `98 and it was Saudi Arabia -yes, thats correct- who tabled it in OIC but yet again shot down by Pakistan.

And you still have Ahmendmadanis who wonder why his muslim brethren in Arab and elsewhere dont respect Pakis and their passports.

TheoVanGogh: you write ``This should be a matter for Indians living in the diaspora to shun all Pakistanis ``

Great. Why dont you put your money where your mouth is try to stay away from chowk?? (of course you cant stay away from chowk. Because there is nothing you crave more than attention from Pakistanis). ha! ha!

Ahmedmadani make a good point and it is something Indians should encourage.

For self esteem reasons Pakistanis should be encouraged by India and Indians to embrace their heritage to the West and align themselves with Arabs, Afghans, Kurds, Persians, and work towards global Islamic Caliphate or at the very least Islamic trading block and a turn to Sharia law along the lines of Saudi Arabia. This should be a matter for Indians living in the diaspora to shun all Pakistanis as friends and by doing so encourage Pakistani assimilation into the global Ummah.

Re: # 31
Mr. Netzen.... You have clearly shown India will not mount to any thing. Its population is going to high.

I will request you to not give ANY attention to India. I have began to feel Chowk has become place for rowdy indians to have time of life to say bad words and criticise govt of pakistan, Pakistan army and Pakistanies. I will like people to given attent to other real countries with whom were are related by culture, thinking, education , standards and of all RELIGION. We need to concentrate on United Muslim States of Asia,Africa and Europe. You should write about brotherly muslim countries and we are failing totally and is reflected by response of Muslim countries for support to us in Kashmir, Siachin, Sir Creek. They are now days not even supporting by words. The reason is clear when a Muslim brother look at Pakistani newspapers its full of INDIA. Our culture uis comtaminated with all cross culture and vulgar movies and books and TV shows pouring from India.

Also no Point is saying India is not doing good as what you got out of it nothing except little morbid comfort. But what is use to Pakistani of that comfort as we are though far ahead than India still we are not considered very worthy, our passport is not respected by brother muslim countries. They feel what is point in helping us if we are all obssed with India. We need to move our eyes to Arab, Iran and central asia and africa. Why we are not getting not even one letter from Brothers from 57 Muslim countries as they feel we are almost same as bunch of Indian Hindus. No arab bothers about pakistan and muslim struggles. There is repression in asia against Muslims of Burhma,Thiland and even China but we are all worried and interest in India.
Also no point in saying China is better than India, It is but what is of use to us ? Chinese laugh at us. They send all smuggled goods and not we can say much even though they are demolishing industries one after another. We can not make fun of India when our prime minister hopes to Import goods from India like sugar, potatos, onions, garlick wheat to control inflation. You are educated than me and you are in foreign country so understand better than me. What is point in saying India is not good when they produce and market bag of cement at 150 rs while our producers market at 350 rs. These producers are getting very cheap gas compared to Indian producers who use coal with great amount of ash. You check price of sugar in Karachi and India. Why sucrose content in Sugarcane in India is 11.5% on average while ours hovers around less than 10%. There are 12 companies listed on American markets they are Indian made and there is giant as Mittal steel 45 Milliom Metric Tonne/ per year largest producers of steel in private co./ headquarterd in UK ? India may be stupid what is use if we are not any better? I have never understood what is this complex its disease. It diverts our energy from work and constructive criticism to redicule others and leads us no where. We were the Largest Muslim Country prior to 1971 war. The largest Hindu country but stupid poorest ( It was really poor india of those years) stood against and China and USA used its strength and weaknesses and sacraficed and cut to size the egos of generals and in short time of 1year largest muslim counrty was deafeated. That is fact then what is point in making fun of India ? Indians took on usa and China in that struggle and stupid indians sacraficed to break Pakistan willingly. Talk is very cheap . What our govt has done for liberation of Kashmir precisely again talk and talk. Our army has declaed no struggle. Let army tax for Kashimir exclusively like India did and see how many people are ready to pay willingly for few years as Indians did. Indian are poor but have arrogance to lecture with begging bowl in hands. Have we that arrogance even to say anything. Thershold of Pian taking of Indians is very high ours is big talk but braeks very fast.Wehave no self criticism but hate of India has made us blind we look at Indian success and achievements with reversed telescope. All picture gets distorted. India produces High speed Disel at world prices we are more near to sources of crude than India we used to get 1 Billion dollars Saudi OIL facilities/ free oil. We import high speed disel. Why we can not make and export high speed disel ? I have spent life in Hospitality business. Why Indian companies in this sector are invited in Muslim countries to make establishments and make profits while we are not invited to party. Our brother countries all cry with us but then they party with Indian hindus. They are not all stupid muslin brothers.
Again its easy to criticise and redicule others and say some body is better than them. Finally it boils down to what we are than what they are. China is incresing trade with India its already in 10 billion per years at advantage to India. Chinese premier appreciates the work in IT etc. I feel we are more loyals ahan royals.

I request Owners to limit Indian Participation and invite contributors from Muslim brother countries. That way this dangerous and morbid attraction from indians and of India will be replaced by Muslim countries. No indian movies or writers so other can contribute. Leave India obsession must stop.

Re: # 25

``I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power``

India has a very big GNP which will continue to grow and by 2050 will be the second largest in the world. But that doesn`t mean much. This increase is due to massive population. GNP/capita is a better way of looking at the purchasing power of a person, which will still be lower than the developed world.

Also, as the economy is growing the wealth is not being distributed equally. If a few are becoming millionaires thousands still are in poverty. Not all the people are going to become rich at the same time. The more prepared ones will become rich faster than the less prepared ones.

Regarding super-power, having a good economy is not going to make a country a super-power. A lot of things need to take place. India should just concentrate on getting the economic security right now while maintinaing the defence expenditure at 2-3 % GNP.

``Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell. ``

One major factor is the manipulation of currency that Chinese are relying on. The current rate of $1=8 yuans, which is ~30% lower than the market directed ones. us is pressing them to make yuan float. Once it is done (which is not going to happen in neat future) the price of chinese goods will rise and they won`t be as competitive as now.

#27

Also Iran makes pennies for its gas compared to Qatar, gets d*cked around by Russia, Turkey and even Armenia on the price for its gas.

It aint easy living in the world, if you ain`t no friend of Uncle Sam`s :-)

as the old saying goes ``pani mein rehkar, magarmach se bair nahin karte``

first line should read:

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline as is India, here`s why:

#27

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline was is India, here`s why:

The worlds largest gas field is the North Field/South Pars (greater than 1000 TCF) shared between Qatar and Iran. Qatar has been well placed in the global shift to gaeous fuels and due to its alliance with the US has attracted massive investment in its gas resources, by the last count $25 billion has poured into Qatar to build huge LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) plants (RasGas, QatarGs) and GTL (Gas to Liquids) (Shell, Cevron, Exxon ...) plants. With cheap power being avaialble there is even talk of relocating power intensive industries like aluminium, electric furnace steel mills to Qatar. Qatar is even planning the next step to capitalize on its gas wealth, part of which is building Qatar airways into an Emirates style airline. Note the massive A350 order in Paris.

There is little doubt Qatar in the next decade will leave Kuwait looking like a subcontinental city :-)

On the other side of the Gulf, Iran is still struggling to develop the South Pars field, leading players are LG of Korea, Eni of Italy, Shell and Total of France. Till date there is no LNG facility on the Iranian side. This is in a world where not just Qatar but coutries like Egypt and Australia are investing massively in LNG facilities and tying up long term contracts with Korea, Japan Italy and US.

Iran still remains a much poorer country (relative to its gulf neighbours) with a sluggish state dominated economy critically dependent on support from its oil wealth. It has a large youth population and unemployment is high. Now the new president is promising an even larger expansion in social programs.
In other words what may be a luxury for Qatar is much needed money in Iran.

In such a situation India is Iran`s shining hope, a huge almost insatiable market, creditworthy customers and no small nation that can be pushed around by the US.

If you are following the news you will probably realize how India has an even stronger hand to play now.

I wonder is next leader saying anything about Iran-Pakistan-India Gas line. I think being hardliner he may not like to provide has to India which is full of nonbelievers, most Iranians think India is full full bunch of Hindues. It is possible he may just extend pipe to Pakistan. It is bad as without gas India can not progress and can lead to strife due to lack of fuel and gas as a feed stock for fertilizers and power plants. It is possible America may not allow the gas line to pakistan also. I think pakistan should use all gas it get to produce fertilizers, ammonia, urea and power and sell power starved India with value added products only like power from electric lines. I hope may its better not to have pipeline at this time as benefit is $600Millions per year. There will be big cost of safegarding from terrorists also USA may cut same amount it gives per year as aid. The advantage of American aid is we do not need to provide extra security. Also its not worth for our country to have bad strain in relationships. There is Ironic asymmetry in perception of two brotherly muslim brother countries about USA. Iran govt is against USA but people of IRAN like USA while Pakistan Govt and general is most strong supporter og USA while people are anti american.
Hope writer will write about effect on pipeline.

sifzal,

I think that one can just as easily understate the progress India has made. Realistically, it is on track to becoming a Taiwan or Korea, and that`s damn good. It took some, say, 10 or so years for these countries to realize the transition from 3rd world to developed.

India has a huge population, and much of it is under the poverty line by Indian standards...much more so by Western standards. That, though, is changing for the better...and rapidly so. It`s this change and sustaining it that is important.

Relative to developed nations, China is nominally better and it`s progress much less transparent.

Both India and China share the same challenge...development with a huge population. Future stability in both countries, just like in smaller countries like Iran, depend on how well wealth and opportunity is distributed amongst the masses. A sustained base of people under the poverty line will probably translate to political instability in the long run.

As for the American debt to the Chinese...can the Chinese afford to have a bankrupt America? Who is the primary client of their industry? Without balance in trade, everyone will suffer. So we shouldn`t view the outsourcing boom in India, and the manufacturing boom in China as evidence of a potential dominating force in either of these two nations. Both nations are heavily dependent on the same market for their revenue. I am uncertain that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, or imposing laws that limit outsourcing, will adversely affect the American/European economy as it would the Indian and Chinese ones.

I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power...so please wait till its over 250 million people comes out of poverty line and at least have access to drinking water fit for human consumption. Having said that, yes one must also appreciate that finally the foreighn investment from US and the West is being properly utilized, and India is on the path of recovery - towards stability is still a long road which can be achieved if it keep on getting leaders such as it has at the present times.

Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell.

I remember reading Times and Newsweek in late 70s those claimed that soon Iranians would be eating leaves after the Iraqi war and looking to West for support with Ayatollah Kohmeni in command. Well visit Iran today and certainly Iranians have made these reputed journals embarrassed on their forecasting. so Well done Iran!

Charlie,

Europe and America shall remain dominant, with perhaps power shifting between the two, for some time to come. Militarily, and in terms of innovation, China and India simply do not compare.

This will change, but more along the lines of Chinese and Indian citizens playing second fiddle to European and American interests. Indian and Chinese growth is predicated on foreign funding, so it seems odd that this should be taken as a sign of advancing past these foreigners.

Military and economic dominance of Europe and America will continue unless China or India manages to rework the established ``world order`` to their advantage. Realistically, that means outgunning, outthinking and out producing Europe and America as a rival, not as a dependant partner.

I think the Chinese and Indian policies hinge on growth, not on fantasies of becoming global powers. In any case, talk of Chinese or Indian challenge to Europe or America is most premature.