Iranian Puzzle

Dear Idiot , thanks for displaying your idiocy.

Re: # 61
When you will learn to behave like good humans, you will understand the meaning of words carrying wisdom! The statement is for humans those have sense and it was understood by the majority of your american settled Indian industrialists!

Idiot : ``you will be thanking Pakistan being in your neighborhood, else West and USA would have not given India so much importance as it received!``

Dear Idiot. Kindly elaborate on the above statement. Makes no sense.

Also you make a lot of the fact the India`s debt-to-GDP ratio is 56%. Do you know what America`s debt-to-GDP ratio is ? 65%.

(http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html)

Re: # 57

Though it hurts to try and reason with some one like you because of the attitude, still one last try is hereunder for your awakening, for I understand from where you are coming:

An Indian news paper (The Hindu May 13, 2005) clipping reads as: `` NEW DELHI: The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday signed agreements with the Indian Government for extending an IDA credit of $ 465 million from the World Bank and a total aid package of $205 million from the ADB towards post-tsunami reconstruction and recovery efforts in the country.

Of the ADB assistance, $100 million is to come as loan, another $100 million as grant and the balance $5 million is to be provided from the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, according to a World Bank statement here.``


Secondly, if you have some interest in economics you may like to read your Kelkar Task Force (KTF) paper regarding whether Indian debt / borrowing is sustainable or not; where the sustainability of borrowing or debt of a country is understood when the debt to GDP ratio is 50 percent, as per my information, the present (2005) level of Indian ratio is 56.8 per cent, which implies that it may be borrowing to pay off some outstanding debts with interest. Thus India needs to perform much well than what it is even doing now. Your desires that India should not borrow, as foreign aid does not work, is commendable, and every poor and developing country around the world desires the same, however the ground realities are different, at present it just stand as wishful thinking...When you are able to get some wisdom, you will be thanking Pakistan being in your neighborhood, else West and USA would have not given India so much importance as it received!

Take good care of yourself and if possible do try to see other side of the strories that you are at the moment familiar with!

Re: # 4 Mr.Cannanne... You asked why I am bothered about import of food products from India.
Please read following article. This material imported to combat inflation in goods requored by poor people in my country. Now instead of helping now govt of India is playing politics with caring for poor people. They are putting pressure to get access to Iran, afghan , and central asia. Is it humanatarian to play politics and hurt poorest people ?
That is reason I support import from Muslims countries and our great friend China. India can not be good partner as they do not treat pakistan as equal partner also they export more than Import. With Friend country as china or brother muslim countries trade onesided is ok also as muslim brother get employed while India is enemy nation no point in feeding hindu snake when it is going to bite at proper time. Hope this will clear my argumenrt.
Now read
India ‘trading’ time over land route

Nadeem Malik

ISLAMABAD: New Delhi is dallying over the issue of land route export of meat, vegetables and other eatables to Pakistan via Wagah border frustrating attempts by Islamabad to beef up food supplies in the market.

India has asked Pakistan to submit a formal written request to New Delhi to permit trade through cargo trucks at Wagah. Indians are apparently reluctant to move forward, demanding transit trade facilities with Afghanistan and the Central Asia. However, Pakistan has finally sent a formal official proposal for cross-border movement of the truckers.

The Government of Pakistan allowed food imports from India after rampant inflation led to surge in prices of daily use items beyond the rationale levels. The worst hit segment was the poorest of the poor, as less than adroit management of food stocks resulted in rising kitchen items’ prices.

Pakistan has received some food supplies in Karachi from Mumbai via small naval ships, but land route is crucial to ensure timely supplies in the Punjab and NWFP.

The annualised rate of inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has moved up to 9.33 percent for the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, which includes food inflation of 12.8 percent, which is far higher than the non-food inflation of 6.98 percent. The government hopes inflation would slowly move down the ladder once the import of essential vegetables and meat/live animals is formalized from India. The government is negotiating a passage facility for cargo trucks at Wagah, where Pakistan has also been setting up quarantine facilities. The Planning Commission expects 9.7 percent inflation during 2004-05 and 8 percent in the medium-term.

Pakistan has been experiencing strong inflationary pressures for the last year or so, mainly due to rapid upsurge in food prices, coupled with supply shortages, higher fuel prices and growing monetary expansion. The total monetary expansion during the last three years is about Rs 870 billion, which helped propel the economic growth rate but resulted in a price hike.

High inflation and large unemployment rate of about 7.8 percent are two fundamental challenges for reduction in the poverty levels in the country.

However, almost 55 percent of the increase in CPI-based inflation has been perpetuated by the food items, like wheat, atta, vegetables, milk, meat and so many other items, which are essential commodities for every household to survive in this world. Even the poorest of the poor need wheat flour, vegetables and pulses, as children need milk, but prices of such items are rising continuously.

Official statistics have claimed some reduction in inflationary pressures during the month of May over April, but its impact is hardly seen in the markets. The CPI increased by 11.1 percent in April and 10.25 percent in March.

Another important inflationary measurement is the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which shows food inflation at 10.87 percent. If the wholesale food prices increase at such an alarming pace, there is little hope to expect relief at the retail levels. The core inflation, a measurement of non-food-non-oil inflation, is also showing up-tick. The July-May data indicates core inflation at 7.5 percent. This, in turn, would also mean that the central bank may allow further increase in the interest rates, which are generally kept at a level, which is better than the core inflation. In Pakistan, however, the real interest rates are in negative for depositors of the formal financial institutions.

The government has also announced to deregulate the wheat/atta trade. A major increase in food-based inflation is the result of frequent increases in the wheat support price. Some official reports indicate that the support price mechanism has contributed on inflation. The provision of wheat flour through the utility stores has also been approved at Rs 11.50 per kilogram to provide some relief to the poor.

The Economic Survey released by the Ministry of Finance also admits adverse and disproportionate impact of inflation on the poor and vulnerable segments of the society as well as its deleterious effect on purchasing power of the low income groups. Recently, an international rating firm had warned that the expansionary approach announced in the budget could fuel inflationary expectations further.

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Previous Islamabad News Next


The News International, Pakistan

Re: # 56

``but to have some political gains to win hearts of Afghans, which it mercilessly crushed at the time of Russian invasion``

india crushing afghan hearts during soviet invasion? I wonder how much leverage india had.
Its true the financial aid to afghan (or other small countries) are for generating goodwill or sustaining indian cultural/traditional activities.
Moreover, india did help afghans after the soveits left. During the civil war the Northern Alliance had got a lot of help from India (even though they controlled only 10% of afghanistan). Infact, Sher-e-Panjshir breathed his last in an indian army run hospital. NA`s leadership had taken shelter in india during the Taliban days. Even karzai got his degree from india. Hence once taliban was ousted indias position in afghanistan became stronger then it ever was since the 80`s.

#57 ,

Dear Idiot.....Fact is India does not seek foreign aid. Aids given to NGOs and private organisations does not count as aid given to a nation. I never denied 250 million Indians out of a population of 1.1 billion live below poverty line. But the figure was 420 million only 15 years back. So obviously there has been a substantial reduction in poverty and this is linked to the opening up of the economy in 1991.

I stressed on the fact about India not seeking foreign aid because foreign aid does not work and is subject to the law of diminishing returns. So India objects to aid and seeks business , investment , trade and jobs.

Re: # 54
Dear uncivilized fellow, make sense American NGOs are not asking for donations in Australia or India, they are keeping their home affairs well within their own home, unlike India which needs to ... well forget it, its something which you would not understand ...

Even your PM cannot claim that you are claiming...see your total debt the assistance given to Afghanistan is not because India has become affluent (refresh your current statistics, India`s 250 million population still lives below poverty line), but to have some political gains to win hearts of Afghans, which it mercilessly crushed at the time of Russian invasion

Hallo... still confused as to why with 60% of Iranians voting, a hardliner still won! Just when I thought Iran was opening her doors and becoming flexible, Iran took a step backward through the current election. Not sure why better candidates did not make the appearance. Yes, the Iranians voted for themselves and so we have to respect that, but one has to be cautious with the Pakistani, Afghani, and neighboring populations getting more religiously inclined.

-zensufi-

Sifzal....being the idiot again I see.....there are NGOs in US asking donations for the poor and underprivileged Americans . Are we now supposed to believe US is a poor country ? As I said , facts are that India is not an aid seeking country anymore.

I am perplexed by how EVERYTHING eventually culminates into a pak-india match of who`s better.

Thank you 31, 26 and 48 for your replies. I shall ignore 48, for the lack of civil language and can only tell him to either live in Australia or USA to see the TV realities, the add does not take a name of any Indian organization, they say poor children in India and other African countries...the advertising agency is ``Save the Child``!

Netizen, I appreciate your reply as it showed good selection of words and some sense, yes you are right, for if the next 45 years India continue to grow at the pace of 8%, it would be the second largest economy in the world. But you need to keep few realities in mind, no country in the world has thus far able to sustain for that long, and more you develop the less becomes your growth rate. Further, all economics rules start with cetris peribis...and believe me the real world does change. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, if India continued to get leaders such as the present ones, it does have a chance to succeed and be able to look after its population.

Regarding the exchange rate pressure from US on China, it means a little. Remember Economics tells you many things regarding the same issue, and ``learned`` economists make the best by fooling the most through showing only that side of the picture that the audience wants to see. If China today increases its currency value, the USA and other countries will have to pay China a lot more and those countries in debt to China will have to adopt policies that China would like them to adopt, believe me no developed country would like to fall in the trap it made for most of the developing countries.

Charlie

> While India has chosen the easy way of submission to west, as they have been doing since centuries

Do you think that this attitude is partly to blame for historically keeping subcontinental Muslims generally less educated (and to use a more loaded term, more backward) than their Hindu neighbors?

Iranian elections are hue

Charlie #12

`` Ahmedinijad, certainly not my favourite, was not favourite of Elite Mullahs in Iran. He didn`t win because he is a conservative, he won because he is a middleclass person who promised to help poor people. While he was the mayor of Tehran, he showed by his acts that he lives a simple life and he has roots in his people. As a result, it was the people who voted for him. It is what democracy is. ``

Would you have a prince who governs for the welfare for the majority ? Would you have a commoner who looks out for his enrichment ?

`` Despite US propoganda and an 8 year long war imposed by imperialist powers and two decades of strict bans, Iran has survived well. Theiir per capita income is more than any other country in the region. Their economy is stronger than anyone else. Their life style is better han other countries in the region and population living under poverty line is less than any other country in the region. Iranians live happily, they know how to live happily with what they have. It is a proven fact that Iranians hate west and they have reasons for it. ``

Iranians have a lower standard of living than Gulf Arab states and Turkey. The Iranian economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues. Despite their human resource potential they trail badly in other areas. Reapproachment with the Western Europe (if not USA) is crucial to the development of Iranian middle class.

Sifzal...You are obviously an ignorant fool unaware or unwilling to learn about current global realities. A resurgent confident economically powerful India is a no longer just a pipe dream.

India does not survive on foreign aid. The days of India begging for foreign aid are over. It is possible certain private organisations ask for aid , but thats nothing to do with the Indian government. India wants business , trade and investment. Not aid.
#India`s ppp gdp amounts to $3.65 trillion..which is the 3rd highest in the world.
#India`s forex reserves are worth $150 billion.
#Total US aid to India (to certain private projects) : $72 million.
Now you do the math.

Infact India is today an aid giver rather than an aid taker , having sent aid amounting to $100 million to Afghanistan , which is more than the total US aid ($72 million) to India.

Article from Haaretz.


Iranians didn`t `betray` the U.S.

By Zvi Bar`el

A sense of dread befell the world: The new Iranian president is an extremist, a lover of nukes, a Beckham-hater, a believer in the separation of the sexes; to cut a long story short - prepare for war. One could sense the disappointment that crossed the ocean with the news that Hashemi Rafsanjani - the ``liberal`` and ``the champion of human rights`` - failed to get elected.

So how does Iran - which ever since the revolution in 1979 has been seen as an entrenched foundation of the axis of evil, has had sanctions imposed on it by the United States, and in the past two years has come under threat of war from both the United States and Israel - spring a surprise by simply fulfilling expectations?

The answer to this question can be found in the erroneous perception according to which Iran is aligned around two polar opposites - reformists and conservatives. The reformists want Western democracy; the conservatives want the West`s soul. The reformists are opponents of nuclear arms; the conservatives want an atom bomb in every backyard. The reformists support a free economy; the conservatives want the state to control the economy.




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And lo and behold, after eight years of rule by a ``reformist`` like Mohammed Khatami, it is difficult to distinguish between the two streams. Khatami, for example, is opposed to a change in the unique Iranian system of government in which the supreme spiritual leader is also the supreme political leader. The man who served as speaker of the parliament, Mehdi Karroubi, is actually a liberal, but neither does he want to change the system; and the same goes for the brother of the spiritual leader, Hadi Khamenei.

Hundreds of thousands of students, who make up the liberals` public infrastructure, voted for the new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and not for their ``natural`` candidate, Mustafa Moin, a relative of Khatami. It also turns out that spiritual leader Ali Khamenei is encouraging foreign investments in Iran, while the ``moderate`` candidate, Rafsanjani, is perceived as an economic reactionary due to his vast wealth and involvement in governmental corruption.

The confusion is even greater when one realizes that support for Iran`s nuclear armament crosses party lines, as does the attitude toward the United States. When President George Bush defined Iran as part of the axis of evil, thousands of reformists joined conservatives in demonstrations against the United States. These are the same reformists who lit candles in solidarity with the Americans in the wake of the Al-Qaida terror attacks in September 2001. These are the same Iranian residents who, in a poll conducted in Iran some two and half years ago, declared their support for the renewal of dialogue with Washington.

The Iranian public did not ``betray`` Washington in last week`s elections. It simply remained an Iranian public that first considers its government`s internal policy, its economic situation and its national pride. It did not elect the man who let it down over the past eight years or promised new relations with America, but the man who promised jobs for 30 percent of the unemployed and welfare programs for the poor - just as any public anywhere else in the world does.

Furthermore, the reformists did not have an election promise from Bush that they could wave around and vow that the United States would change its policy toward Iran if the president was elected from among them. In fact, Washington, which is now so frightened by the results of the election, did not do much at all to bolster the reformists over the past eight years, thus allowing Russia, China, India and Pakistan to become stronger allies and wield a greater influence over Iran.

Is Iran more frightening than ever now? Not necessarily. Iran is not an insane state, and its citizens, despite the oppression, know how to rally the street into action when things are bad for them. They were the ones who elected more liberal representatives as a result of their disappointment with the representatives of the revolution; and they are the ones who changed the government now.

Urstuly,

Good points in 38, but who ever worries about sustainability? Even in the west there is a understanding (is it misplaced?) that new markets will emerge, and the workforce will shift as the trends of a new economy dictate.

So in 50 years, manufacturing will definitely move to virgin areas and untapped markets will be opened up. The trick for India and China is not to be one trick wonders.

---

pmishra2,

Perhaps I shouldn`t waste my time commentating on obscure columnists remarks...but...

The article you pointed has hardly a coherent thought in it. The people voted for the person who will cater to their interests (or at least perceived to). The idea that the poor of Iran will benefit from headlong retreat from current policies and a complete opening up to the West is nonsense. It will be the already well-off (by comparison) middle class who will be the prime benefactors of that.

No one voted to ``remain in poverty`` or to keep an economic status quo in the rural areas. In fact, it`s precisely the promise of providing opportunity (through education, and investment) to rural Iranians that played a part in the electoral win of Ahmadinejad.

The appropriate questions are: will a policy of self sufficiency (like India had up till the 90`s) work for Iran, which unlike India has oil wealth to fund it`s experiment? What avenues are available for a transfer of technology and know-how? How will relations with the Europeans, Chinese and Russians change? Is cooperation with America a prerequisite for any kind of growth? Will catering to the lower class disenfranchise the middle class, in effect swapping one source of political instability for another, or run the risk of economic stagnation?

Another view on the puzzle:

Islamist Regime in Total Control

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by Amir Taheri

The Australian

June 27, 2005

ZAMINLARZEH! The word, that means earthquake in Persian, is on every mouth in Iran as the nation tries to absorb the shock of Friday`s election that catapulted a little-known figure into the position of President of the Islamic Republic.

That figure is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who became mayor of Tehran less than two years ago. He won the presidency in a landslide, crushing the mullah-cum business tycoon Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the pillars of the regime since its inception in 1979.

Ahmadinejad holds a PhD in engineering from Iran `s most elite university, and is far better educated than all of his five predecessors as president.

A reservist colonel of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is the first president of the Islamic Republic with a military background. The son of a blacksmith, he is the first president of the Islamic Republic to come from a poor family and one of few senior figures in the regime not to have amassed a personal fortune in recent years.

But Ahmadinejad`s chief asset, and the main if not sole reason for his victory is his relationship with and fierce loyalty to the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenehi, the true and almost absolute ruler of the country. The two met in 1979 when Khamenehi served as deputy defence minister and have been close ever since.

Some analysts have dismissed Ahmadinejad`s emergence as a front-line player in Iranian politics as irrelevant because the electoral process that produced his win was manifestly flawed.

Nevertheless, his election is an important development. After all, this is the first time in the 26-year history of the Islamic Republic that a mullah has been beaten by a non-mullah in a high-profile electoral contest. His win is all the more significant because his rival was not only Iran `s richest man but also the best-known figure of the Khomeinist regime.

Ahmadinejad`s victory means that Khamenehi, who has established himself as head of the most radical faction within the Khomeinist establishment, now controls all levers of power for the first time. He will now be able to put his own men in charge of all key government departments. Any idea of Western-style reforms to please the restive middle classes will be abandoned.

The concentration of power in the hands of the radical faction will end more than two decades of divided government that has put many aspects of policy on autopilot as it were. Two years ago when King Abdullah II of Jordan telephoned Khatami to complain about Iran setting up terrorist cells in Amman, the Iranian president was able to claim that he knew nothing of it because he did not control all organs of government.

The Europeans who have been negotiating with Tehran over the nuclear issue have also heard similar claims from Iranian counterparts. With Ahmadinejad in charge, however, such claims will no longer be credible because the camarilla headed by Khamenehi is now in complete control. Rafsanjani had promised the Chinese model - meaning the combination of a despotic political regime with capitalist economic policies. Ahmadinejad promises a North Korean model - that is to say a totalitarian system and a command economy.

Ahmadinejad`s election shows that the Khomeinist regime cannot be reformed from within. It also shows that there is still a strong constituency in Iran for the populist message of the ayatollah. True, far fewer people voted than the regime claims. But those who did vote preferred Ahmadinejad`s ``pure Islam`` to Rafsanjani`s attempt at perpetuating the myth that Iran today is, in the words of the former US president Bill Clinton, ``a progressist democracy``.

Ahmadinejad describes himself as a fundamentalist, has no qualms about asserting that there can be no democracy in Islam, rejects free-market economics, and insists on ``religious duties`` rather than human rights. This clarity will, in the medium term, help the people of Iran understand the choices involved. They will learn that they cannot have an Islamist system together with the goodies that the modern world offers in both material and spiritual terms.

Unlike Khatami, who was trying to hoodwink the Europeans over the Iranian nuclear project, Ahmadinejad openly says Iran does have such a program, is proud of it, and that no one has the right to question Iran`s right to develop whatever weapons it wants.

Should the outside world be frightened? Not necessarily. Paradoxically, the clarity created by this election may prove useful. Khatami went around the world speaking about Hegel and Nietzsche to ruling elites and creating the illusion that the Islamic Republic was part of the global system symbolised by the World Trade Organisation, the Davos forum, and the Western non-governmental organisations of do-gooders.

Ahmadinejad`s victory reveals the true face of the Islamic Republic as a regional power with its own world vision that challenges the so-called ``global consensus``. It reminds the world that the mini-Cold War that started between the Islamic Republic and the West, notably the US, is far from over.

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Iranian author Amir Taheri was editor-in-chief of Kayhan, the most important Iranian daily under the Shah. He is a member of Benador Associates.

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URL: http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/16225

From www.ait.com:

Iran: The living fossils` vengeance

Traditional society persists long past its best-used-by-date in the Middle East due to subsidies from the oilfields or, in the case of Palestine, from the United Nations. Rural folk who long since would have left the land and its rigid habits of mind remain suspended in time like living fossils, watching as the world leaves them behind. Rural Persia voted with one voice to hold the world at bay, and elected Mahmud Ahmadinejad as the country`s next president. It is pointless to complain about vote fraud and intimidation; there is no doubt that Adhmadinejad won the votes of Iran`s rural poor.

``Almost no one in Washington expected the landslide victory of the conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, as Iran`s next president,`` wrote David Sanger in the New York Times on June 26. Yet the surge of support for the ultra-Islamist mayor of Tehran should be no surprise.

From an economic standpoint, Iran is a changeling monster, an oil well attached to an iron lung, as it were, maintaining with subsidies a rural population that is no longer viable. Oil and natural gas earn US$1,300 a year for each Iranian, roughly a fifth of per-capita GDP. The Islamic republic dispenses this wealth to keep alive a moribund economy. Government spending has risen by four-and-a-half times during the past four years, financed via
the central bank`s printing press, pushing inflation up to 15% per annum, while unemployment remains at 11%.

Iran`s government spending, money creation and inflation (annual rates of change)
Government
spending
Liquidity (M2)
Inflation

2001
22%
29%
11%

2002
43%
30%
16%

2003
99%
26%
16%

2004
29%
30%
15%

Note: Years are Persian equivalents, beginning in March
Source: Bank of Iran

Iran`s poor want more of the same policies, albeit with less skim for the elites, and that is what Adhmadinejad promised them. Rural Iran will support the Islamists, because the Islamists will support them for ideological reasons. The young people of Tehran may look to the West with hope, but their cousins in the countryside see only the ruin of their way of life. If the traditional economy disappears, will Iranians produce better manufactures than China, or program computers like the Indians? Their fate would be economic emigration, like their neighbors the Turks.

Poverty is not the issue. The 17 million Iranians who cast their ballots for Ahmadinejad voted to remain in poverty, with a bare minimum of security provided by the Islamic state. On the contrary, they cannot imagine their lives outside of traditional society, in which Islam regulates every facet of existence. Fewer than three-quarters of Iranian women can read, that is, fewer than half of rural women are literate. The country has only one phone line for every five people, a fifth as many as France. Most of the country remains sunk in misery, but the humblest Iranian farmer still has the pride of a conqueror in his heart.

That is the great gift of Islam, which offers much more to the faithful than the ordering of traditional life. It promises to impose the system of traditional life upon the world. Islam is the vengeance of tribal society upon the cosmopolitan empires, first against the Sassanids and Byzantines, then against the Holy Roman Empire, and now against the West. The Muslim does not cower in his village waiting for the inevitable encroachment of a hostile world, but seeks to impose his will on the world. As I wrote elsewhere (Does Islam have a prayer? May 18, 2004),

[quote]
Islam acknowledges no ethnicity (whether or not one believes that it favors Arabs). The Muslim submits - to what particular people? Not the old Israel of the Jews, nor the ``New Israel`` of the Christians, but to precisely what? Pagans fight for their own group`s survival and care not at all whom their neighbor worships. A universalized paganism is a contradiction in terms; it could only exist by externalizing the defensive posture of the pagan, that is, as a conquering movement that marches across the world crushing out the pagan practices of the nations and subjugating them to a single discipline. If the individual Muslim does not submit to traditional society as it surrounds him in its present circumstances, he submits to the expansionist movement.
[end-quote]

That is why Adhmadinejad`s belligerent attitude towards Iranian nuclear weapons cannot be separated from his charitable stance towards the country`s rural poor. Islam promises not only protection against the threatening world, but the opportunity to force it to submit to Islam`s own standards.

Ahmadinejad`s victory leaves American policy in an untenable position. To the extent that the United States enhances the military prowess of Iraq`s Shi`ites to the level required to suppress Sunni insurgents, Iran may harvest the political benefits. Iraq is now led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari`s Da`wa party, which operated in exile out of Tehran during the Iran-Iraq War. At a Baghdad news conference with Iran`s foreign minister on May 18, al-Jafaari said in English, referring to the 138,000 American troops in Iraq, ``Let me add that the party that will leave Iraq is the United States, because it will eventually withdraw. But the party that will live with the Iraqis is Iran, because it is a neighbor to Iraq.``

In their provincial smugness, President George W Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice understand none of this. The more the Middle East opens its political process to the will of the people, the worse things will be for Washington.

It is not that the people of Iran are wrong about Admadinejad, like the people of Lebanon about Hezbollah, or the people of Gaza about Hamas. Rather, they are the wrong people to begin with, in that their lives as presently organized are not viable in the modern economic world. Iraq`s Sunnis, I observed recently, commit suicide bombings at a rate not observed since Japan`s kamikaze, because the present state of affairs offers them nothing but misery and humiliation (Why Sunnis blow themselves up, June 13, 2005). For the peoples of the Middle East, extremism, terrorism, and even suicide attacks represent an asymmetrical bet. What the United States offers by way of democracy and modernization is an abyss with no bottom; fighting one`s way out offers at least a slim chance of success, particularly if one builds nuclear weapons.

urstruly #38 I dont know about other countries, but Turkey is already getting a bonanza - grew by 8% last year, and factories from Spain etc. are being re-located in Turkey. Despite having trouble becoming part of the EU, the positive attitude shown by the Turks (e.g. introduction of democratic reforms as pre-condition for joining EU) has made it attractive to investors.

Here is the story in today`s WP about it

article

Turkey`s Evolving Economy
Country Ties Its Fortunes Closer to Global Trade, Putting Pressure on Western Europe

By Peter S. Goodman
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, June 28, 2005; Page D01

ISTANBUL -- Only six months ago, the European Union agreed to hold talks aimed at bringing this poor and overwhelmingly Muslim country into its ranks, offering what seemed a sign of Western Europe`s grudging acceptance of globalization. Turkey then pressed ahead with reforms aimed at making itself more like the Europe it hoped to join.

Today, however, Turkey`s hopes of joining the E.U. are all but dead. In the European conversation, Turkey has devolved from a symbol of the continent`s aspirations for a wider community to the primary culprit threatening its livelihood -- a nation stealing manufacturing work while delivering an influx of indigent job-seekers.

Yet Turkey`s pursuit of a place in the E.U. has set in motion a process of change that has made this country of 70 million a more market-oriented economy. This process is putting new pressures on Western Europe while revealing Turkey`s own precarious position, as it ties its fortunes closer to global trade.

Re: # 38

``With rapidly expanding industrial base and only automation as an answer to growing demand what would the countries like India and China do with their immensely large populations. In western world, a negative population growth has kept the sanity of society intact when workforce faced the challenges of automation. I think in next 50 years the production will move to smaller, sparsely populated countries like Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Burma, nepal etc. What do you think.``

I think automation was used as a productive tool, not as an answer to reduction in population. Innovation has mostly lead to increase in productivity and hence growth of economy. Automation in america was seen since the days of 1900 when the population was increasing with an ever increasing input of immigrants.
For developing world, in order to be competitive would require them to be productive i.e. leaner and meaner just like when China/British reducing its army personnel but becoming more lethal. The growth in economy or the wealth generated in one industry can be used to develop/invest in newer technologies and industries. hence you see the state undertaking doing poorly because their motto is not productivity/generating wealth but providing jobs to the people.
Investments/industries would go to any low cost-efficient country, but i don`t think Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Burma, nepal will be ready in another 50 years.

charlie writes ``About Dark ages, I meant Europe is on its way to it. I find no progressive thought left here. ``

Charlie, while I agree with your posts to a large extent, I am not sure about your above comment. At a personal level, my exposure to europe and europeans have shown that they seem to be a lot more knowledgeable about the affairs of the world. Not just that, unlike americans, they also tend to have a far deeper understandings of the ``context`` of various conflicts around the world. They seem to be a lot more well travelled than Americans. Only 10% of americans hold passports, compared to more than 50% of europeans. And the ``culture of knowledge`` is far more seeped into europeans than amongst any other people. Yes, chinese are picking up steam, but still they have a long way to go. Its the europeans anthropologists, and scientists you see working in africa and far flungs of South America.

On the other hand, America under Bush has taken a giant step towards dark age. Theory of evolution is being banned in schools. The climate of free thought and free expressions in being stiffled. Because of ``global war on terrorism`` american academia has lost the best and the brightest students to other countries. A somewhat objective Public Broadcasting Services (PBS) was recently given a slap by an increasingly evangelised congress to ``balance`` its coverage or else lose funding. There is not a SINGLE mainstream newspaper in the entire US which dares to have a coverage of the Iranian elections that differs from the official US policy.

As for there being no progressive thoughts left in europe, European Union is a pretty progressive thought. Yes, it has encountered some hurdles lately, but no one believes that it will be stopped. Europe needs to bring its economics to the demands of 21st century - and solve the stagnations resulting from welfare entitlements and labor unions etc.

But still, economic prosperity follows a free society. And america is becoming increasingly less free.

Re: # 32

``Re: # 31
Mr. Netzen.... You have clearly shown India will not mount to any thing. Its population is going to high``

Population is fine as long as the country can manage it i.e. not have to spend its hard currency on food imports.

But what matters is what the people are doing. whether the majority of people are just peasants/farmers toiling hard everyday to make their ends meet or are technological/scientific hand helping the country to become an industrial base with wide economy and talened human resource.
This can happen only if the country can provide basic education to everyone.

#32

Bravo Madani-saheb! if only more of your countrymen shared the clarity of your vision!!

Re: # 37 Netizen

With rapidly expanding industrial base and only automation as an answer to growing demand what would the countries like India and China do with their immensely large populations. In western world, a negative population growth has kept the sanity of society intact when workforce faced the challenges of automation. I think in next 50 years the production will move to smaller, sparsely populated countries like Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Burma, nepal etc. What do you think.

Re: # 21 Charlie

``US have realized that it can`t keep the first spot for much longer time. With their growth rate, Chinese economy is going to be the biggest economy in the world within a decade. India is almost equal to the size of Japanese economy and now is going to be the third economy in the world. With the growth rate as that of India, economy of US + India will always remain larger than chinese economy. So for Americans, India is a suitable ally to save the system on which US infrastructure is based. Indians never feel it difficult to adopt them withj changing time (that`s what I declared submission), so they have adopted well in this situation.``

As I have said in earlier posts, very large economies of China and india will be because of their huge population. Definitely it is better than what it was earlier but you need to look at GNP/capita which I think will still be lower than the western world (but higher compared to decades back).

``We need to realize the value of human resources. Human resources if developed well are the biggest asset of a nation. Specially in 21st century, it will make or break he nations. Europeans have not enough human resources. Their baby boom generation is old enough. New generation is not willing to produce more people. They are afraid of skilled migrants entering Europe. They are afraid of opening themselves in front of the world. India and China have already a lot of human resources and they have positively started exploiting these resources.``

Thats true. But if you look at the growth rates, its falling in a region/country which is getting industrialized. india is still growing but at a lower level than previously. Infact china has its own problem of ageing, because of 1 child policy. but they are in a better shape than the europeans with regard to that.

``I am sometimes afraid of these chinese. Their ``remaining low and advancing silently`` makes me worried. While west has some set of ethical value in the name of democracy, freedom etc (althouygh being misused now), nobody knows what these chinese are upto. The brutal way they have started capturing world markets, will they be same if they starting colonizing? ``

The same thing happened during jap invasion of corporate america in 80`s. people thought that the japs were going to buy off the entire country. THey entered the memory business and dominated it. But the U.S. companies moved to upscale industries and the japs got competition from koreans. THe chinese are also riding high on mafg but there are a few chink in their armor, like the currency rate. With a few chinese companies bidding/buying u.s. companies it would be interesting to see what happens next.

Re: # 32 ahmedmadani:

I am sorry to disappoint you, I am a hindu (by culture) and indian by nationality. My post #31 was more towards the ground reality than to debase/ridicule anyone. What I was trying to say is that even though india has the potential and is moving in the right direction (at varying pace) it is still not there yet. It will take decades of diligent work from all sections of society.

VanGogh,

Wish it were that easy. Our `vulgar` movies are really such a huge hit in Pakistan and people like Ahmedmadani who just cant have enough of it. And whatever their religion Arabs have a keen sense of history and they credit the entire subcontinental history and its civilisational baggage to India only. And with good reason too since Pakis dont seem to want it. Iran and Iraq for instance, have had traditional ties with India for over a millenia and their people, particularly shiite community, have great appreciation and respect for India and her people. India would have been an full OIC member long back if not for repeated objections from Pakistan. Last time was in `98 and it was Saudi Arabia -yes, thats correct- who tabled it in OIC but yet again shot down by Pakistan.

And you still have Ahmendmadanis who wonder why his muslim brethren in Arab and elsewhere dont respect Pakis and their passports.

TheoVanGogh: you write ``This should be a matter for Indians living in the diaspora to shun all Pakistanis ``

Great. Why dont you put your money where your mouth is try to stay away from chowk?? (of course you cant stay away from chowk. Because there is nothing you crave more than attention from Pakistanis). ha! ha!

Ahmedmadani make a good point and it is something Indians should encourage.

For self esteem reasons Pakistanis should be encouraged by India and Indians to embrace their heritage to the West and align themselves with Arabs, Afghans, Kurds, Persians, and work towards global Islamic Caliphate or at the very least Islamic trading block and a turn to Sharia law along the lines of Saudi Arabia. This should be a matter for Indians living in the diaspora to shun all Pakistanis as friends and by doing so encourage Pakistani assimilation into the global Ummah.

Re: # 31
Mr. Netzen.... You have clearly shown India will not mount to any thing. Its population is going to high.

I will request you to not give ANY attention to India. I have began to feel Chowk has become place for rowdy indians to have time of life to say bad words and criticise govt of pakistan, Pakistan army and Pakistanies. I will like people to given attent to other real countries with whom were are related by culture, thinking, education , standards and of all RELIGION. We need to concentrate on United Muslim States of Asia,Africa and Europe. You should write about brotherly muslim countries and we are failing totally and is reflected by response of Muslim countries for support to us in Kashmir, Siachin, Sir Creek. They are now days not even supporting by words. The reason is clear when a Muslim brother look at Pakistani newspapers its full of INDIA. Our culture uis comtaminated with all cross culture and vulgar movies and books and TV shows pouring from India.

Also no Point is saying India is not doing good as what you got out of it nothing except little morbid comfort. But what is use to Pakistani of that comfort as we are though far ahead than India still we are not considered very worthy, our passport is not respected by brother muslim countries. They feel what is point in helping us if we are all obssed with India. We need to move our eyes to Arab, Iran and central asia and africa. Why we are not getting not even one letter from Brothers from 57 Muslim countries as they feel we are almost same as bunch of Indian Hindus. No arab bothers about pakistan and muslim struggles. There is repression in asia against Muslims of Burhma,Thiland and even China but we are all worried and interest in India.
Also no point in saying China is better than India, It is but what is of use to us ? Chinese laugh at us. They send all smuggled goods and not we can say much even though they are demolishing industries one after another. We can not make fun of India when our prime minister hopes to Import goods from India like sugar, potatos, onions, garlick wheat to control inflation. You are educated than me and you are in foreign country so understand better than me. What is point in saying India is not good when they produce and market bag of cement at 150 rs while our producers market at 350 rs. These producers are getting very cheap gas compared to Indian producers who use coal with great amount of ash. You check price of sugar in Karachi and India. Why sucrose content in Sugarcane in India is 11.5% on average while ours hovers around less than 10%. There are 12 companies listed on American markets they are Indian made and there is giant as Mittal steel 45 Milliom Metric Tonne/ per year largest producers of steel in private co./ headquarterd in UK ? India may be stupid what is use if we are not any better? I have never understood what is this complex its disease. It diverts our energy from work and constructive criticism to redicule others and leads us no where. We were the Largest Muslim Country prior to 1971 war. The largest Hindu country but stupid poorest ( It was really poor india of those years) stood against and China and USA used its strength and weaknesses and sacraficed and cut to size the egos of generals and in short time of 1year largest muslim counrty was deafeated. That is fact then what is point in making fun of India ? Indians took on usa and China in that struggle and stupid indians sacraficed to break Pakistan willingly. Talk is very cheap . What our govt has done for liberation of Kashmir precisely again talk and talk. Our army has declaed no struggle. Let army tax for Kashimir exclusively like India did and see how many people are ready to pay willingly for few years as Indians did. Indian are poor but have arrogance to lecture with begging bowl in hands. Have we that arrogance even to say anything. Thershold of Pian taking of Indians is very high ours is big talk but braeks very fast.Wehave no self criticism but hate of India has made us blind we look at Indian success and achievements with reversed telescope. All picture gets distorted. India produces High speed Disel at world prices we are more near to sources of crude than India we used to get 1 Billion dollars Saudi OIL facilities/ free oil. We import high speed disel. Why we can not make and export high speed disel ? I have spent life in Hospitality business. Why Indian companies in this sector are invited in Muslim countries to make establishments and make profits while we are not invited to party. Our brother countries all cry with us but then they party with Indian hindus. They are not all stupid muslin brothers.
Again its easy to criticise and redicule others and say some body is better than them. Finally it boils down to what we are than what they are. China is incresing trade with India its already in 10 billion per years at advantage to India. Chinese premier appreciates the work in IT etc. I feel we are more loyals ahan royals.

I request Owners to limit Indian Participation and invite contributors from Muslim brother countries. That way this dangerous and morbid attraction from indians and of India will be replaced by Muslim countries. No indian movies or writers so other can contribute. Leave India obsession must stop.

Re: # 25

``I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power``

India has a very big GNP which will continue to grow and by 2050 will be the second largest in the world. But that doesn`t mean much. This increase is due to massive population. GNP/capita is a better way of looking at the purchasing power of a person, which will still be lower than the developed world.

Also, as the economy is growing the wealth is not being distributed equally. If a few are becoming millionaires thousands still are in poverty. Not all the people are going to become rich at the same time. The more prepared ones will become rich faster than the less prepared ones.

Regarding super-power, having a good economy is not going to make a country a super-power. A lot of things need to take place. India should just concentrate on getting the economic security right now while maintinaing the defence expenditure at 2-3 % GNP.

``Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell. ``

One major factor is the manipulation of currency that Chinese are relying on. The current rate of $1=8 yuans, which is ~30% lower than the market directed ones. us is pressing them to make yuan float. Once it is done (which is not going to happen in neat future) the price of chinese goods will rise and they won`t be as competitive as now.

#27

Also Iran makes pennies for its gas compared to Qatar, gets d*cked around by Russia, Turkey and even Armenia on the price for its gas.

It aint easy living in the world, if you ain`t no friend of Uncle Sam`s :-)

as the old saying goes ``pani mein rehkar, magarmach se bair nahin karte``

first line should read:

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline as is India, here`s why:

#27

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline was is India, here`s why:

The worlds largest gas field is the North Field/South Pars (greater than 1000 TCF) shared between Qatar and Iran. Qatar has been well placed in the global shift to gaeous fuels and due to its alliance with the US has attracted massive investment in its gas resources, by the last count $25 billion has poured into Qatar to build huge LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) plants (RasGas, QatarGs) and GTL (Gas to Liquids) (Shell, Cevron, Exxon ...) plants. With cheap power being avaialble there is even talk of relocating power intensive industries like aluminium, electric furnace steel mills to Qatar. Qatar is even planning the next step to capitalize on its gas wealth, part of which is building Qatar airways into an Emirates style airline. Note the massive A350 order in Paris.

There is little doubt Qatar in the next decade will leave Kuwait looking like a subcontinental city :-)

On the other side of the Gulf, Iran is still struggling to develop the South Pars field, leading players are LG of Korea, Eni of Italy, Shell and Total of France. Till date there is no LNG facility on the Iranian side. This is in a world where not just Qatar but coutries like Egypt and Australia are investing massively in LNG facilities and tying up long term contracts with Korea, Japan Italy and US.

Iran still remains a much poorer country (relative to its gulf neighbours) with a sluggish state dominated economy critically dependent on support from its oil wealth. It has a large youth population and unemployment is high. Now the new president is promising an even larger expansion in social programs.
In other words what may be a luxury for Qatar is much needed money in Iran.

In such a situation India is Iran`s shining hope, a huge almost insatiable market, creditworthy customers and no small nation that can be pushed around by the US.

If you are following the news you will probably realize how India has an even stronger hand to play now.

I wonder is next leader saying anything about Iran-Pakistan-India Gas line. I think being hardliner he may not like to provide has to India which is full of nonbelievers, most Iranians think India is full full bunch of Hindues. It is possible he may just extend pipe to Pakistan. It is bad as without gas India can not progress and can lead to strife due to lack of fuel and gas as a feed stock for fertilizers and power plants. It is possible America may not allow the gas line to pakistan also. I think pakistan should use all gas it get to produce fertilizers, ammonia, urea and power and sell power starved India with value added products only like power from electric lines. I hope may its better not to have pipeline at this time as benefit is $600Millions per year. There will be big cost of safegarding from terrorists also USA may cut same amount it gives per year as aid. The advantage of American aid is we do not need to provide extra security. Also its not worth for our country to have bad strain in relationships. There is Ironic asymmetry in perception of two brotherly muslim brother countries about USA. Iran govt is against USA but people of IRAN like USA while Pakistan Govt and general is most strong supporter og USA while people are anti american.
Hope writer will write about effect on pipeline.

sifzal,

I think that one can just as easily understate the progress India has made. Realistically, it is on track to becoming a Taiwan or Korea, and that`s damn good. It took some, say, 10 or so years for these countries to realize the transition from 3rd world to developed.

India has a huge population, and much of it is under the poverty line by Indian standards...much more so by Western standards. That, though, is changing for the better...and rapidly so. It`s this change and sustaining it that is important.

Relative to developed nations, China is nominally better and it`s progress much less transparent.

Both India and China share the same challenge...development with a huge population. Future stability in both countries, just like in smaller countries like Iran, depend on how well wealth and opportunity is distributed amongst the masses. A sustained base of people under the poverty line will probably translate to political instability in the long run.

As for the American debt to the Chinese...can the Chinese afford to have a bankrupt America? Who is the primary client of their industry? Without balance in trade, everyone will suffer. So we shouldn`t view the outsourcing boom in India, and the manufacturing boom in China as evidence of a potential dominating force in either of these two nations. Both nations are heavily dependent on the same market for their revenue. I am uncertain that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, or imposing laws that limit outsourcing, will adversely affect the American/European economy as it would the Indian and Chinese ones.

I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power...so please wait till its over 250 million people comes out of poverty line and at least have access to drinking water fit for human consumption. Having said that, yes one must also appreciate that finally the foreighn investment from US and the West is being properly utilized, and India is on the path of recovery - towards stability is still a long road which can be achieved if it keep on getting leaders such as it has at the present times.

Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell.

I remember reading Times and Newsweek in late 70s those claimed that soon Iranians would be eating leaves after the Iraqi war and looking to West for support with Ayatollah Kohmeni in command. Well visit Iran today and certainly Iranians have made these reputed journals embarrassed on their forecasting. so Well done Iran!

Charlie,

Europe and America shall remain dominant, with perhaps power shifting between the two, for some time to come. Militarily, and in terms of innovation, China and India simply do not compare.

This will change, but more along the lines of Chinese and Indian citizens playing second fiddle to European and American interests. Indian and Chinese growth is predicated on foreign funding, so it seems odd that this should be taken as a sign of advancing past these foreigners.

Military and economic dominance of Europe and America will continue unless China or India manages to rework the established ``world order`` to their advantage. Realistically, that means outgunning, outthinking and out producing Europe and America as a rival, not as a dependant partner.

I think the Chinese and Indian policies hinge on growth, not on fantasies of becoming global powers. In any case, talk of Chinese or Indian challenge to Europe or America is most premature.

``Thats true. I don`t think turkey and algeria are democratic. In turkey the u.s. aid-dependent army ensures that the gov doesn`t fall into extremist hands.``

No, the army protects the constitution against any and all ideological threats. Extremism, as their opposition to Erdogan suggests, has nothing to do with it although it makes a nice tune to play when queries by donor nations.

I believe no western state would behave differently if there were credible threats against it. France, for example, strikes me as a nation that would not shy from vetting candidates and reserving the right to even ban parties that hold platforms contrary to the secular principles of the state.

``In algeria the elections were cancelled because it seemed that the islamist would win.
I would have preferred islamic gov in both countries if the people want it.``

It certainly would have prevented a civil war, and have strangled the formation of the GIA.

But the point is, academic definitions of democracy can hardly do...

Haroon Siddiqui is a very good journalist. He has the knowledge of Farid Zakaria, without the Uncle Tom aspect. Haroon tells it like it is.............

I have pretty high hopes for Iran. If there is one large country in the Muslim world that has a shot at organically growing into a success, it is Iran. Everyone from the athiest Tariq Ali to the maulvis think so.........It is currently ranked well ahead of India and Pakistan, on the HDI...........

Iran has always been the center of culture. Even during the Mughal days, all the culture primarily came from Persia. It has a long and proud history. It is quite homogenous. And it has had an organic revolution, which threw out the Shah. It is now slowly moving towards the center. And it has regular elections.......

Bill Clinto said he had publicly apologized to Khatami about the US removal of Musaaddiq, which brought in the Shah. And he stated that Iran was the only country in the world, where the more liberal side had won three straight elections. The guy knows what he is talking about..........

I interview Irani software engineers regularly. And they are all - male and female - quite good. Iran is scientifically, according to MIT, ahead of Pakistan. It makes the best movies in Asia. And it has one of the highest female literacy rates in the Islamic world.

Most of all, it has oil. Basically, it is the one country in the world, which has oil and brains. It will slowly settle down, and the mullahs will be watered down. Unless of course, the USA keeps threatening it. I really doubt the USA will attack Iran.

The current Iraqi govt. is very pro-Iran. It consists of parties, which sought refuge in Iran, during Saddam`s rule. The most powerful man in Iraq, Sistani, is an Irani citizen. It is going to be interesting to see what happens in the nuclear area. The USA is not going to attack. But I have a feeling Israel may launch a strike, like it did on Iraq in 1982.......

I think the anti-mullah brigade on this site is too extremist. They need to put more balance into their views. The most dangerous mullahs - both to the world and to the USA - currently sit in the Republican party, and the Religious Right...........Irani mullahs are generally harmless, outside Iran.........

Re: # 18

Sorry guys, I have to respond to netizen and now I am totally offtopic.

About Dark ages, I meant Europe is on its way to it. I find no progressive thought left here. Only, their infrastructure developed when they had captured most of the parts of the world is helping them continue living respectably. The problems they are going to ace in near future have started to show up.
I agree that at the moment, Pakistanis, Indians and Bengalis or Chinese as individuals can`t compare with a european. But when it comes to national strength, China is stronger than any european country. India is equal if not stronger than them. The way, these two countries are emerging, I have no doubt that Europe is nothing in front of these two.

US have realized that it can`t keep the first spot for much longer time. With their growth rate, Chinese economy is going to be the biggest economy in the world within a decade. India is almost equal to the size of Japanese economy and now is going to be the third economy in the world. With the growth rate as that of India, economy of US + India will always remain larger than chinese economy. So for Americans, India is a suitable ally to save the system on which US infrastructure is based. Indians never feel it difficult to adopt them withj changing time (that`s what I declared submission), so they have adopted well in this situation.

We need to realize the value of human resources. Human resources if developed well are the biggest asset of a nation. Specially in 21st century, it will make or break he nations. Europeans have not enough human resources. Their baby boom generation is old enough. New generation is not willing to produce more people. They are afraid of skilled migrants entering Europe. They are afraid of opening themselves in front of the world. India and China have already a lot of human resources and they have positively started exploiting these resources.

Chinese are bringing back the tradition of knowledge to their country from west. India doing the same but a bit slowly. Culture of knowledge is being cultivated in the land. Amount of new knowledge (research work) coming out of the region is enormous. Quality is not good although improving with the passage of time. If they achieve the same quality, imagine that the driving force of knowledge will be this region. And in my opinion, tradition of knowledge is what makes a country leader in the world. All that makes me believe that this century belongs to our region, India and china being the major players.

I am sometimes afraid of these chinese. Their ``remaining low and advancing silently`` makes me worried. While west has some set of ethical value in the name of democracy, freedom etc (althouygh being misused now), nobody knows what these chinese are upto. The brutal way they have started capturing world markets, will they be same if they starting colonizing?

I have great respect for Iran as a nation today and for the massive contribution the Persians have made to Islamic civilisation (indeed an argument can be made that after the first century or two, Islamic civilisation is almost synonymous with Persian--the list of great scholars and awliya who have been Persian is too long to even mention: from Imam Abu Hanifa to Imam Ghazzali, from Shaykh Abd al Qadir al Jilani to Hafez and Sa`di and Rumi and Jami...even Khwaja Gharib Nawaz was Persian!) and they have shown again why they are a proud, independent nation. I think their system of modified democracy is perfect for an Islamic country: the leader is elected by the people but those who would make laws against Islam are vetted. Perfect. Within that you have a lot of flexibility.

The shameful editorials of all the Western media, left and right wing, is just that: shameful. The Iranians had free and fair elections and the `wrong` candidate (for the Americans) won. Tough luck. Actually, the Americans have been trying to get a public uprising or coup in Iran for the past few years using clandestine means and their Iranian puppets in the US and Iran (eg setting up propaganda TV and radio stations) but the Iranian people have shown why so much of Islamic history and civilisation is stamped with their mark, once more.

Gar dar khaneh kas ast, yek harf bas ast!

Iran Paindabad!
Marg bar dushmanan e Iran va Islam!

Interesting article:

Iran: the living fossils’ vengeance

Re: # 12

``Europe is already its way down to dark ages. US might take a century or more for that. China rising at the top, India rising to the second, it will be interesting to see how world looks like after 150 years.``

Dark ages???? What makes you make such a statement. If Europe is in dark ages where does asia, eastern europe, me, africa lie.
Europe has been eclipsed by u.s. but in no manner it is in dark ages. If it was possible even india/pak/bd would have apploed for eu just like the turks.

US will come back to its ``natural`` share of wealth and power and will cease to be the sole superpower but that doesn`t mean its will become an impotent state. It will still be a powerful country.
Also, by your logic even China and India after another 2-3 centuries will go down and into dark ages.


``While India has chosen the easy way of submission to west, as they have been doing since centuries, China has some policy of their own.``
Submission to the west? India had its own policy which to a large extent was ineffectual and misguided but not along Western lines. was aligned more towards Soviets not the west. Chinese are not fools. the only policy they have is ``lie low and continue to grow economically and militarily``.

Urstruly:
i have happened to talk to a few iranian students and they all unequivocally condemned Iranian political system. This is ofcourse strictly an anecdotal input But does point out that the usual signs of a deep fissure between the mullahs and the irani new generation are not very off the mark.
I hope,whenever the Revolution character will have to proceed to meet Khomeni in Barzakh, that instance would come without Paki-grade plutonium polluting the air.

Re: # 15


``The culling of a candidate list is not unique to Iran, and is often enthusiastically approved of by Western nations (the US in particular). Elections in Turkey and Algeria are closely guided by their military, which serve a similar function to Iran`s Guardian council. ``

Thats true. I don`t think turkey and algeria are democratic. In turkey the u.s. aid-dependent army ensures that the gov doesn`t fall into extremist hands. In algeria the elections were cancelled because it seemed that the islamist would win.
I would have preferred islamic gov in both countries if the people want it.

Netizen,

Better in all respects. I`m not an anarchist.

Women were allowed to vote and run for office, although they could not run for the presidency.

The culling of a candidate list is not unique to Iran, and is often enthusiastically approved of by Western nations (the US in particular). Elections in Turkey and Algeria are closely guided by their military, which serve a similar function to Iran`s Guardian council.

One can only conclude, then, that Iran`s practice of culling candidate lists is hardly undemocratic with respect to Western perceptions of what democracy is, even if it is not a normative practice in the West.

#8 _digit


“support for political opposition, or even influencing Iraqi politics, is well within the right of the Iranian regime given the extent of American medelling in Iraq (which is total).”

Yes! It is not de Jure but a de facto right. But that also gives Pakistan or the US a right to influence politics in Iran, breach the Iran border or send in advance forces for guerilla activities.
Based solely on infiltration, Iran becomes a party in the Iraq conflict thus opening itself for retaliatory action.

“Mullahs is perhaps infinitely better than Iraq without a functioning government...”

Infinitely better than a country under arms conflict! What are the bases of the comparison?

Take out the insurgency, Iraq right away becomes a better place for human rights and civil rights. Removing the occupation army would make Iraq the only country along the gulf to have a functioning democracy. Iran w/o all those elements such as insurgency or occupying army still won’t qualify for a functioning democracy or a civil rights heaven.

urstruly #11:

it is understandable why you would not trust the iranians

Iranian Newspapers in English

have faith, someday there would be enough freedom there

;)

Imperialist forces will never stop crying over a matter that is out of their control. They want to see the whole world in one color, the solor which is their own. These imperialist powers are no more liberal or democratic.

Liberalism demands to tolerate a thing that is different from you. They just can`t do it. Liberalism demands to give the other people a space to breath but the ``liberal west`` wants whole world to be like them. Seriosuly, Europe lost its way long ago and US start losing its direction a couple of decades back. As Noam Chomsky says, the intolerant attitude of US government and rising intolerance among americans due to the ears created by government will cause heir generations to suffer.

And about being democratic, democracy is the biggest tool used by these goras. If a regime is friendly, it is democratic. If it is not, there must be a re-election as elections were not fair.

Ahmedinijad, certainly not my favourite, was not favourite of Elite Mullahs in Iran. He didn`t win because he is a conservative, he won because he is a middleclass person who promised to help poor people. While he was the mayor of Tehran, he showed by his acts that he lives a simple life and he has roots in his people. As a result, it was the people who voted for him. It is what democracy is.

Now if a blind west followers gets up, feeling irritated by the fact that a conservative had such a landslide victory and claims that electyions were not fair, I can say nothing but to feel pity for this unbearded, westernized extremist.


Despite US propoganda and an 8 year long war imposed by imperialist powers and two decades of strict bans, Iran has survived well. Theiir per capita income is more than any other country in the region. Their economy is stronger than anyone else. Their life style is better han other countries in the region and population living under poverty line is less than any other country in the region. Iranians live happily, they know how to live happily with what they have. It is a proven fact that Iranians hate west and they have reasons for it.

But west still tries to prove otherwise.

In modern world, media, democracy,human rights, freedom and similar logos have become the tools to dictate. Down with such extremist europe.

Europe is already its way down to dark ages. US might take a century or more for that. China rising at the top, India rising to the second, it will be interesting to see how world looks like after 150 years.

While India has chosen the easy way of submission to west, as they have been doing since centuries, China has some policy of their own. Let`s see what happens.

Note: I am sorry, if I was a bit off topic.

we may never know what exactly is happening in Iran. The only information we have, and our perception is solely based on that, is from the news that we get from American and Western propaganda machinery. On one hand it is an accepted truth that Americans lie to their teeth to further their agenda and on the other hand population in West has been brainwashed into hatered and downright prejudice against Muslims and Iran that truth about Iran is hard to find.

Re: # 8

``Needless to say, Iran under the Mullahs is perhaps infinitely better than Iraq without a functioning government...``

better in what respect?

Re: # 8

``Needless to say, Iran under the Mullahs is perhaps infinitely better than Iraq without a functioning government...``

better in what respect?

Re: # 3

``60% plus participation by citizens is an enviable mark for any western democracy. ``

I read somewhere that women were debarred from voting. Is it true?

To qualify as a democractic undertaking it would have to do away with:
1. the guardian council, let the people decide whom they want to vote.
2. debarring women participation (if its true that women were debarred)

HP,

``You friend failed to mention that the Iran is the hiding place for most of the terrorist. He failed to mention that Iran is providing support to Iraqi opposition.``

Not really. In any case, support for political opposition, or even influencing Iraqi politics, is well within the right of the Iranian regime given the extent of American medelling in Iraq (which is total).

Needless to say, Iran under the Mullahs is perhaps infinitely better than Iraq without a functioning government...

HP:

saeen don`t be quick with condemnation

click on the link i provided and then click on ``haroon`` ..this will take you to his previous columns...read a few of them before you send him to the gallows;)...personally i think he is one of the relatively more balanced columnist in any major newspaper in the west

btw...if iran supports dissidents in iraq, hazrat USA supports terrorist mujahideen e khalq too...hisab barabar?

rgds

t

Temporal,

You friend failed to mention that the Iran is the hiding place for most of the terrorist. He failed to mention that Iran is providing support to Iraqi opposition. Your friend failed to mentioned that Iran is the most regressive and repressive regime in the world.
Why he failed to mention all those things? “Bughas -e- Maviya” perhaps.

Your friend wants to oppose the US and to do that your friend supports the regime in Iran.

All these theories about Iran more populace or more powerful don’t mean a thing.
It was a mistake by the US to go after Iraq first. They should have taken out the Mullah in Iran first. The US really thought that the Iraq campaign would be short and they will regroup to take on Iran. Things did not turn out that way in Iraq and that leaves Iran off the hook temporarily.
The factors working for Iran are the oil prices and the oil supply in the world. Europeans don’t have more than thirteen days supply of oil. The oil prices would shoot up astronomically if the Gulf were blocked for two weeks. That is a strong possibility even when the US takes the Pakistan route to attack Iran.

However, Iran must not bank on its lucky stars. If not this, the next US administration would have to deal with these enemies of humanity sitting in Tehran and thumbing their noses as if their elections were real.

They kept the voting to 60%; people would have rejected these polls right away, if they have gone on to 99% participation. Mullahs think that the world is impressed with their elections and they are a democracy now. They are as usual delusional. Nobody believes in their elections except for a few misguided, Jihadi inspired kids.

It makes no difference who gets elected in Iran, after all the President is little more than a figurehead.

I have many iranian friends in the US and they have told me that a vast majority of the iranian population live in squalor, crowded into dingy tenements, despite the wealth that oil has purportedly brought into that country.There is an elite in Iran who are in cahoots with the mullahs and between these two groups the spoils are divided.Whatever govt. in iran occupies power is immaterial to us Indians as teheran under any guise has always maintained good relations.

Election time in Iran is always a very difficult time for the US government. It is at pains to explain to the american public why despite Iranians going to elections in droves, it is not really a democracy! 60% plus participation by citizens is an enviable mark for any western democracy. Bush administration would have propgandized to no end if it had mustered this kind of democracy in Iraq.

Then you see american media coming up with catch phrases to discredit the elections. NY Times suggested that ``youth boycotted this election`` - not withstanding the fact that nearly 70% of the iranian population is under the age of 30 and that majority of the votes Ahmedinijad received were from youth. Perhaps the only ``youth`` that mattered to the western media was the one that allegedly boycotted!

The war mongers in Bush administration could not be happier with the result. Rafsanjani has a track record of being very polished and fox-like in his foreign policy. Ahmedinijad is a new hand and the war mongers are hoping that he will overplay his hand, thus giving ammo for a new war.

Already, several books have come out, scaring american public about Iran and conditioning them for next war. ``The countdown to showdown with Iran`` is one such book that alleges that 9/11 was infact plotted by iranians and al-qaeda!!!

Its deja vu all over again.

my friend haroon has written this:

Iran is an important regional power. Its population is three times that of Iraq. It is an old civilization with a great intellectual and cultural tradition and a strong sense of its Shiite identity. Under Khatami, it has seen the potential to develop into a democracy and become the Shiite equivalent of moderate Sunni Turkey and Malaysia.

Isolating Iran is the worst possible course to follow.Isolating Iran will only strengthen hardliners - Haroon Siddiqui says most Iranians want to normalize relations with U.S.