No Burial for Balakot

This is a very emotionally traumatic time for the survivors and even concerned bystanders. Although it is a natural disaster and man stands largely helpless before nature, we must still reflect a moment to ask ourselves if we could do something differently or better that would effect the aftermath of such natural occurrences?

The Indian Ocean tsunami and this earthquake seem to suddenly have come out of nowhere. Their devastation far exceeds any other recent natural tragedy. However, in so far as the collective conscious of the world is concerned the aftermath of hurricane Katrina does not seem too far behind although the death toll there was much smaller.

Is there a common theme in these events? It seems that there is one.

The gods may or may not have any culpability here, but man surely does. It is his lack of imagination and anticipation that makes these potentially destructive natural forces truly catastrophic.

While hurricanes can be tracked in plenty of time to save people, earthquakes are said to come without warning. That is not necessarily true. Earthquakes mostly come in already quake-prone regions. And it is a well known fact that earthquakes themselves do not kill, its the badly build building that kill. Okay, granted, that it`s a bit different in mountains where a random landslide can kill indiscriminately. But for the most part death and injury results from collapsing buildings.

If this is the case then why do we build the way we do, using materials inappropriate for quake prone areas?

The answer is usally some excuse about poverty and lack of resources etc. But the resource that is most lacking is imagination and common sense. Rich or poor is a secondary issue. Why build a city below sea level on a huricane prone coast? Or, why use inflexible construction materials like cement and concrete in geologically unstable areas?

The Japanese get more earthquakes, and severe ones, than anyone else in the world. Yet, they have not sustained any heavy casualties in recent times. Could we learn something from them? Could we have been building like the Japanese for the last few decades?

The fundamental problem seems one of human nature. Denial is not just a river in Egypt. I think when Pandora released all the spirits from the box, blind hope became a mechanism too great to be overcome by Cassandras screaming about terrible possible futures. This is why efforts at prevention have been doomed to failure under most circumstances. Humans pretend that they are rational creatures, capable of abstract thinking, but they are, like all animals, grounded in experience. Think of the people of Pompi, living on the side of Mount Vesuvius. Until it happens, most assume it will not happen, at least to them.

The past cannot be undone and for now all effort must remain focused on relief work. But in time, this too will pass, as does everything. But then what? Can we change some attitudes and think and plan along such lines as would help soften the blows from future events? This is the real chanllange... Can we do better in future?

Scanning the horizon we see another big one coming. This one is potentially really big. I speak of the anticipated avian flu pandemic. Is the region prepared? Building nuclear firecrackers does not a technologically an advence country make.

It time to shake off the complacency, shed the blinders and look the future squarely in the eye.

...SR

sac, it pays to think before opening your mouth and exposing yourself for the fool you are. since firms are matching employee contribution, half of the tens of millions of rupees raised has to be from private contributions. even you should be able to calculate that this would be a substantial amount. also pretty much any global firm of repute matches charitible giving. if its so easy to raise this kind of money, please let us know how much have you and your friends been able raise?

SR #33 You make some very good points. and no less is expected of you :-). In the article below that I wrote (on preparing for Aftershocks), someone suggested lightweight building material. Although not sure of its applicability in the subcontinent, this is exactly the kind of thinking that needs to go on. Nor should be look at the governments for help either - communities need to get organized and be prepared for the Next Big One (we hope it will not occur...but it could almost anywhere in south asia, given what we know about plate tectonics in that region).

SR #33

`` This is a very emotionally traumatic time for the survivors and even concerned bystanders. Although it is a natural disaster and man stands largely helpless before nature, we must still reflect a moment to ask ourselves if we could do something differently or better that would effect the aftermath of such natural occurrences?

The Indian Ocean tsunami and this earthquake seem to suddenly have come out of nowhere. Their devastation far exceeds any other recent natural tragedy. However, in so far as the collective conscious of the world is concerned the aftermath of hurricane Katrina does not seem too far behind although the death toll there was much smaller.

Is there a common theme in these events? It seems that there is one.

The gods may or may not have any culpability here, but man surely does. It is his lack of imagination and anticipation that makes these potentially destructive natural forces truly catastrophic.

While hurricanes can be tracked in plenty of time to save people, earthquakes are said to come without warning. That is not necessarily true. Earthquakes mostly come in already quake-prone regions. And it is a well known fact that earthquakes themselves do not kill, its the badly build building that kill. Okay, granted, that it`s a bit different in mountains where a random landslide can kill indiscriminately. But for the most part death and injury results from collapsing buildings. ``

The problem with hurricanes is that there is so many of them. In hindsight Rita avoided Houston but look at the mess created by the un-necessary evacuvation of Houston. If Katrina did not put the fear of god a lot of people who evacuvated during Rita would be riding out the storm. If you cry wolf too many times then people stop listening to you.


`` If this is the case then why do we build the way we do, using materials inappropriate for quake prone areas? ``

Earthquakes are not common in Indian subcontinent. War and Famine killed more people than earthquakes. That explains the behavior of people.


`` Scanning the horizon we see another big one coming. This one is potentially really big. I speak of the anticipated avian flu pandemic. Is the region prepared? Building nuclear firecrackers does not a technologically an advence country make. ``

Killer germs are a ticking time bomb

Saminasha #30: ``However, I do not think it is a bad thing to keep in mind the excesses and problems........ institutions accountable for how this emergency is handled.``

Definitely. This is very important. I think some independent agency like Transparency Int`l etc., must audit everything and keep an eye on everything.

``But again, I think it is important to be aware of some of the points that Prof. Hoodbhoy has raised-lets be frank here. US Aid comes with some altruism........ superpower influences the international community with policies based on relief efforts than domination?``

This may be true. But I am afraid I cannot agree with this, in relation to this tragedy. What USA is doing in other parts of the world and what it has done here are two different things. They need to be kept separate. I have been, perhaps, the most vocal critic of the US foreign policy (Iraq etc.) on this site. And will continue to be. I gave up a potential US citizenship, for such reasons.

However, in this case, the USA has helped. It has given $50 million. And will give more. Its Secretary of State arrived in Pakistan. Its press has covered the issue. And most of all, it has given Chinooks and Blackhawk helicopters........

There are couple of things poeple need to understand. Pakistan`s helicopters are tiny. These Chinooks are gigantic. These Chinooks and Blackhawks are going to save so many lives. It is impossible to get to some of the areas, without helicopters. At the same time, flying such large helicopters, in such terrian is extremely dangerous. You have to have experienced such things to understand. It becomes even more dangerous if one does not have ground communication, radars etc. And the American pilots have never flown there, making it even more dangerous.

On top of this, all the helicopter pilots are probably flying night and day. Imagine driving a car for that long and multiply it by 10. I am just waiting to hear that one has crashed. That is how dangerous it is.

Whomever, it is from the USA, who is flying those helicopters, has my respect and gratitude, for whatever its worth. Hats off to them. I don`t know what they did in Afghanistan and what they did not do. But, believe, these American pilots deserve a medal from Pakistan.........And I hope they get one........

Based on this, I find this part of Hoodbhoy`s argument very self-serving. These guys have done a 100 times what he has done. No one will ever know the names of the pilots. Yet he will be on the media, critiquing them, and mixing two mutually exclusive events (Afghanistan and this event) to score his own political points............

That is uncalled for...........

Re: # 37 Romair

``These Chinooks and Blackhawks are going to save so many lives. It is impossible to get to some of the areas, without helicopters. At the same time, flying such large helicopters, in such terrian is extremely dangerous. You have to have experienced such things to understand. It becomes even more dangerous if one does not have ground communication, radars etc``

So, why is your Army refusing equally gigantic Indian helicopters and even more experienced Indian pilots` help who fly all over Kashmir to help out when your poor and injured desperately need help? What is your Army trying to protect or hide?

Professor Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy is an eminent Pakistani Physicist trained (Ph.D., Postdoctoral and visiting faculty appointments) in most prestigious Universities in USA. Like many good American Academics, Professor Hoodbhoy is socially and politically active and speaks his mind fearlessly contributing thoughtful analyses on major issues in newspapers, magazines etc. He was an early opponent of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and more recently he has been a critic of squandering of huge sums of money on what he considers “ill advised” programs of the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan. He has contributed a piece to www.chowk.com an internet magazine of Pakistanis and Indians based in North America. Since I share much of his vision on many issues and I have interacted with him from time to time, I will take this opportunity to express my disappointment at some of the things he has written in his chowk.com piece.

In the very first paragraph, he writes:
“From under the rubble of collapsed buildings, a gut-wrenching smell of decaying corpses now fills the town. The rats have it good; the one I accidentally stepped upon was already fat.” I am sorry, Pervez, under the circumstances of the present tragedy, this language is in poor taste. I did not expect this from you at this juncture even though it was written for chowk where being a bit raunchy may be fashionable.

Speaking of Jihadis/Islamists some of whom have descended on the affected areas with relief goods while others simply “harangue poor goat herders and simple tillers of the soil to tell them that their misdeeds brought about this catastrophe”, he writes:
“None seem to have an explanation for why God’s wrath was especially directed to mosques, madrassas, and schools – all of which have collapsed in huge numbers. And none say why thousands of the faithful have been buried alive in this sacred month of fasting.” It seems that Dr. Hoodbhoy has his own explanation but he is holding back on us shying away from blame game. To avoid playing the blame game is now the announced code of conduct among analysts on the media and among the politicians- government and opposition alike. It is not that everyone is strictly adhering to it-whenever an opportunity lends itself they slip in a comment about inefficiency and corruption of the government whose representatives in turn quip back with sharper attacks. But why, Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy would spare the corruption of those responsible for building schools with inferior and inadequate material costing the lives of nearly the whole school going generation is beyond me.

The most serious slip is in the following passage:
For me personally, there was a sense of dejavu. Nearly 31 years ago, on 25th December 1974, a powerful earthquake had flattened towns along the Karakorum Highway killing nearly 10,000 people. I had traveled with a university team into the same mountains for similar relief work. Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had made a passionate appeal for funds around the world, taken a token helicopter trip to the destroyed town of Besham, and made fantastic promises for rehabilitation. But then hundreds of millions of dollars in relief funds received from abroad mysteriously disappeared. Some well-informed people believe that those funds were used to kick off Pakistan’s secret nuclear program.
As mentioned earlier, Dr. Hoodbhoy was an early opponent of Pakistan’s nuclear program. To explain my own bias, let me state that that I too opposed Pakistan’s nuclear explosion in May 1998, which followed the Indian explosions. After the Indian explosions, there was a debate in the country whether or not Pakistan should follow suit. At the University of Karachi, I was an organizer of the Seminar opposing Pakistan’s possible decision to jump in. So, not only do I support Dr. Hoodbhoy’s right to oppose Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, I actually share his vision about it, i.e., that acquiring nuclear weapons has made Pakistan less and not more secure. Having said that, let me express my disappointment over Dr. Hoodbhoy’s quoting an old heresy that hundreds of millions of dollars of earthquake aid was diverted to kick off Pakistan’s secret nuclear program. To recycle this accusation at this time is patently irresponsible. Yes, we should stand guard against corruption and make utmost efforts that all aid is consumed transparently. But in the present international climate of heightened sensitivity regarding nuclear weapons and fears of terrorism, these comments are likely to adversely affect the fund raising for relief.


There are some surprises in what Dr. Hoodbhoy did not say. Setting aside “no blame game” code of conduct, I would start by questioning why certain things were not done.

1) It seems to me that immediately after the quake, we should have requested the big brother for satellite images. These images could have been received within hours.
2) In the meantime, Pak army’s paratroop units should have been alerted for possible action and the senior officers of those units summoned by COAS/President for meeting and review of satellite images and possible action.
3) Immediate collection of light equipment which could be used in the situation (axes, picks, shovels, wheel barrows etc.) which could be parachuted down, should have begun.
4) A very high profile appeal for helicopters should have gone out in a manner that could affect politically the potential donors if they dragged their feet. Remember that during the 1970 cyclone of East Pakistan, Senator Edward Kennedy and other Democrats lashed out at President Nixon for not coming through with helicopters for relief work while hundreds of US helicopters were available (in Viet Nam) only a few hundred miles away. As I recall it had desired effect. Needless to say the number of helicopters made available for earthquake relief is too little and too late.
5) Based on the detailed analysis of satellite images for the extent and locations of damage, the paratroop units of the Pak army and relief helicopters should have reached the remotest affected locations by the second day at the latest. It was possible.
6) I would imagine that a scientist of Professor Hoodbhoy’s caliber would be more candid and specific about the direction of reconstruction efforts that he would like to see. Should we have more of the same (concrete based construction-only with better standards) or go for wooden structures and risk massive deforestation or should we seek newer synthetic materials for construction. Should we seek to relocate villages and small towns extensively or let the people come back to their original places of abode. What type of civic infra structure should be envisioned and as a Physicist what specific suggestions he has for alternate and renewable sources of energy for these areas which could be restored within a minimum time period after natural disasters.
7) As we proceed with reconstruction how to ensure that these efforts would provide new jobs and training for the displaced people rather than becoming a bonanza for outside contractors.
8) And last but not the least, how do we rehabilitate the affected population of survivors which has suffered extreme mental and physical trauma.

Re: # 38

Hey Biatch,

Read the BBC article about this.

#39
I doubt Prof. Hoodbhoy even reads the responses here and it`s no use addressing anything to him. AFAIK, he has never answered anyone here.
I agree with you that his comments about stepping on a fat rat are in a very bad taste. It`s as if he were a detached observer commenting to an audience that is equally detached but curious nonetheless.
I think too much is made of low (read inexpensive) construction quality as somehow preventable. Except perhaps in wealthy enclaves of urban areas this was completely out of anyone`s control since pucca construction with reinforced concrete cement is very expensive. In a region that has not seen destructive earthquakes in a long while it would be hard to come up with the money to do it. Even in the future it would be nearly impossible to ensure proper construction in most places unless the govt comes up with the funds magically. I think RCC construction would be the most practical and cheapest of all alternatives.
Regardless, it is heart-wrenching that so many children died in schools and pucca construction of school buildings and emergency drills for school children has to be the foremost priority.
Your criticism of Pervez Hoodbhoy`s accusation re: funneling money to the nuclear program as somehow untimely,assumes that he is able to influence donors. I think you`re over reacting. If this rumor has been around, repeating it at this or any other time will make no difference.
Finally, since you mention helicopters, do you know why the indian offer was turned down? Is that decision understandable?

soyasauce:

I doubt Prof. Hoodbhoy even reads the responses here and it`s no use addressing anything to him. AFAIK, he has never answered anyone here.

that isn`t quite accurate. dr. hoodbhoy has responded to some interactors here. a very rare occurence, but to say never, well, never say never again. :)

Madam, it`s soysauce not soyAsauce. Thanks for the info but I did say AFAIK.

and it`s not madam, it`s ana. with apologies. :)

re: this article
I have this question for Professor Hoodhbhoy. Can he please tell us why Pak govt is so much opposed to taking help from India during this disaster? It just does not make sense. Here is a perfect confidence building measure and Pak is blowing it away.
Sridhar

Re: # 45

rsridhar,

all you have to do is look in the mirror .............

Re: # 46

Hamidm Sahib:

``all you have to do is look in the mirror .............``

Even such those hearts melt and minds soften. Remember George Wallace.

Anil

True heroes:

``Six die in Pak Army relief helicopter crash
(Updated at 0850 PST)
MUZAFFARABAD: A helicopter of Pakistan Army that went to dispatch relief goods in affected areas on Saturday was crashed and six army personnel in it, were martyred.

The helicopter, MI-17 crashed in forward area from quake-hit Bagh during a relief operation. The military found the wreckage including the bodies of four military officers and two technicians in Chhapri area at 1:30 in midnight, military spokesman Maj. General Shaukat Sultan said.

Three martyred officers have been identified as senior pilot Lt. Col. Roghani, senior pilot Captain Rahim and Major Umar Baig Mirza.``

These helicopter pilots are probably the most important group of people in Pakistan, at the moment. They are the only ones who can reach the real remote areas. And they are flying the most difficult helicopters flight in the world. I cannot think of any more difficult terrain, and any pressure that can be greater.

There are helicopters from USA, Germany, Afghanistan and perhaps a few other countries. I think the very large American helicopters are operating out of Pindi. While the Pakistani Mi-17s are operating out of the local areas, and are going deep into the terrian. While the smaller Pakistani Lama and Allueotte helicopters (with two persons) are going very deep into the narrow areas............

Hats of to all of them............