Bye Bye NAM, Hello Realpolitik!

Re: # 109

Ali

``Can someone please summarize for me in about 15 words as to why the dhoti clads are so agitated on this thread.

The wind is blowing hard!

bongdongs#84:

Good post. While I am no expert in this area, I think that once capital costs are factored in, hydroelectric power is perhaps the cheapest and cleanest, followed by thermal plants fired by coal/gas. Solar power is becoming cheaper all the time and may be the way to go in the future. Wind power is also cheap in theory but it can only work in certain locations - I have seen them in Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu - require large open spaces and are quite unseemly.

Some time back, India was putting emphasis on biomass generaed power in villages. Any idea what happened to that initiative?

HP#107:
If your criterion is accepted, chowk might become a better place but it wont be chowk. The really solid research articles, such as Feroz Khan`s War Dispatches, rarely get noticed.

I still dont get the correlation about pointing to the cabinet tugs of war - as stuka pointed out, Praful Bidwai has done the same and he ain`t no sanghi - and having an agenda. As far as my interpretation of shia votes is concerned, Muslims in Lucknow may not be persuaded by Iran politics but what counts is the perception of politicians. You are right in suggesting that the Congress did not win any seats in Lucknow. But it is desperate to win back the Muslim votes that it lost to Mulayam Yadav after the demolition of the Babri masjid. It thinks that with Sonia Gandhi as the President it has an opportunity to do so and has even appointed a prominent Muslim, Salman Khurshid, as its state President. As far as Manmohan`s reference to civilisational links with Iran are concerned, I have referred to them more than once at chowk.

Ref by hindvi #81

[...India may well have the capacity to bear it out indefinitely because they are 1 billion strong and Kashmiris are only 8 million, but its not a done thing. thats all I am saying.]

Allah works in mysterious ways. He sends the earthquake to Kashmir killing nearly 80,000 persons equalling the Indian Army`s (much inflated) numbers. Allah took only a few seconds as opposed to the Indian Army taking 15 years to reach the same number.

I think I shall start praying to Allah. He is da Man!

Ref hamidm2 #55

[France gets over 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear power. ............it is the world`s largest electricity exporter...............]

My friend who works at Kaiser Aluminum might differ with you. Kaiser, according to him, doesn`t so much import aluminum metal from Nigeria as it does electricity, a reference to the huge amount of electricity consumed in refining bauxite into aluminum!

Ref Romair #39

[Condaleeza Rice is an expert in Cold War Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact Eastern Europe. I am not aware of her area of expertise being China. Or post-cold War Russia or post-Cold war Balkans. Could you point to some references..........

Her only foreign affairs assignment that I know of was a two-year stint in Bush Srs. administration, under Brent Scowcroft. Other than that, her career has been in various managerial and academia positions, in political science, at Stanford. Could you highlight how she became a, ``trained foreign affairs strategician?``]

She assiduously kissed Republican butts for years. that is how.

Anyway, we are watching history as it is being made: Uncle Tom followed immediately by Aunt Jemima at the State Department. One longs for the good old days when all black women were maids and all black men were servants!

Ref chaltahai #15

[Incidentally, they had a wharton educated 27 yr old MP from Rajasthan who has been in th eparliament for 2 yrs and he said that ``when I was elected, I was the youngest...now I am the third youngest`` It brought a chuckle from a crowd but is a great testament to the process of democracy and the involvement of the young people that is on the rise..in a country where people under 30 will make up more than 70% of the population.]

Oh yeah. And Raoul Gandhi has made the statement that if he wanted he could have been Prime Minister at age 25.

I read somewhere (in a book about gold) that a 9th century homosexual English king had a red-hot poker shoved up his butt. Sounds like a treatment Raoul deserves.

#116

Absolutely!

In this vein, DUBAL (Dubai Aluminium) is trying to be the leader in Al smelting and products capitalizing on its cheap energy. In a few years watch Qatar get into the same business (perhaps via ALCOA).

DUBAL is actually going a step further, it has a $1 billion joint-venture with L&T for bauxite mining and refining to alumina in Orissa.

Cheap Indian alumina + Cheap gulf gas = lowest cost producer!

Re: # 67

``there is no guarantee that India will forcibly be able to supress Kashmir``

Let`s take a look at India`s record over the last 50+ years. India has scored a string of violent and successful land grabs. Hyderabad, Junagarh, Kashmir, East Pakistan, Sikkim, Siachen, East Punjab - even Portugal`s (a NATO member) outpost Goa.

Barring it`s failure in Tamil-land, it has a near total record of successfully grabbing territory and walking off with it - no questions asked.

Re: # 120


``East Pakistan``

?????

``Barring it`s failure in Tamil-land,``

which tamil land????

You missed Nagaland on your list.

Netizen: I think windmill technology to generate electric energy is mature technology (not to mention that windmills for physical energy have been around for centuries). the biggest complaint has been that they have this unfortunate tendancy to chop up migratory birds. similarly, solar panels to convert sunlight to electricity is mature (and indeed the principle was of the photovoltaic affect was discovered by Einstein way back in 1905 I think - for which many years later he received the Nobel Prize i think). So, the technology is there.

Stuka: you mention the other issue of cost-effectiveness. i am sure your wife is correct in terms of the financial cost-benefits. but i think in terms of economic cost-benefits (i.e. which take into account not just the financial costs-benefits accruing to the investor but also takes into account ``externalities`` that accrue to the broader society) i think alternative energy sources are the clear winners. Thus: what is the cost of global warming caused by use of fossil fuels? global warming has already melted substantial portions of the arctic ice-cap (which is projected by scientists to totally melt away by the end of this century); is raising sea-levels so low-lying areas like Bangladesh and many islands may go uncer the sea; and the warming of the oceans is also expected to make the worlds weather extremely violent (hurricane energy is fueled by warm air rising from the oceans). So, while no one can put hard numbers on it, i think there is no question that the future generations (starting perhaps with the victims of hurricanes this year!) will pay an increasinlgly heavy price for this continuated (and increasing) use of fossil fuels without serious attention given to viable alternatives.
btw: Glad to see you got married. Congratulations, and wish you and the misses a long and happy married life.

soysauce #82 so we agree on this. and of course, if there is one thing the subcontinent has, that is plenty of sun!! As the british composer Noel Coward wrote in his poem in the fading days of the British Raj, in India only ``Mad Dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun``. Talk about indigenous resources!! Nothing beats the blazing midday sun of the subcontinent.

delhiwala: I missed that expo. But clearly fossil fuels are on their way out, like coal was at the turn of the previous century. They cant produce hybrid cars fast enough, given the demand due to increased petroleum prices. And they say petroleum prices have risen due to structural reasons of increased demand due to the emerging economies.

Dost-mittar #111: A couple of things......

Pakistan has the second highest number of shias in the world. Not India. Hence you may want to re-evaluate that part.........

``I do not think that China and Russia are necessarily in favour of Iran getting nuclear weapons.``

This is correct. Pakistan doesn`t want Iran to get nukes either. I don`t think any country does. The vote is thus even more significant. It defines the boundary lines of how the future war over Central Asian resources will be fought. China and Russia are getting together against USA.........

``India is not the only country which is short of indigenous petroleum resources. A prime example is Japan which has been able to sustain a very high level of economic production``

You cannot compare Japan to India, for two reasons. Japan has a population 1/10th of India. Its energy resources, are thus, tiny in comparison to India. Also Japan is already a first-world country. It can afford to pay for expensive resources. India is going to need very cheap energy resources, in very high quantities, to get out of the third world. It does not have the wealth to buy expensive resources, yet.......

``I do not think that the US-India Accord is Pak-centric but security of energy through land-based pipeline might have been one of the variables.``

This is correct, as well. USA has nothing against Pakistan. In fact, contrary to popular belief in Pakistan, while the USA may have screwed various Arab countries, it has never done anything to Pakistan. The USA wants to and has to keep good relations with Pakistan. And vice-versa. If Pakistan recognizes Israel, then USA will become a true ally of Pakistan.....

India, of course, does have an anti-Pakistan agenda. The Indian lobby in the USA, is busy trying to block USA aid to Pakistan, in Congress, as we speak. India also wants to isolate Pakistan on nuclear weapons. The Indian govt. just three days ago, gave a scathing statement, in an int`l forum, against AQ Khan etc. However, India does not gain any leverage, in USA, against Pakistan, through this deal.....

This deal is Iran and China centric. USA wants India`s support agaisnt Iran and China. From this point onwards, India will be expected to vote agaisnt Iran and act against Iran on most issues, by the USA........

``India has not abandoned this project and is continuing with the planning studies with Pakistan and Iran about it.``

USA has been putting a lot of pressure on India to end this project. And I believe Manmohan Singh has been going back and forth, depending on which audience is involved. This project is still up in the air........

While I am no expert, I cannot think of any other scenario through which India can get energy, without going through Pakistan, at an affordable cost..........

Alslaam-o-Alaikum and Namastay to all Chowksters:

It is 2nd day of my return to Chowk. Admittedly, I had to leave a comment on Umair Khan`s `Scream` after `certain quarters` desired that I visit this website and participate if I have time and I recalled oh yes I used to be there till some time ago.

This is an article which proves that in a unilateral world of today, any country can be arm-twisted to make u-turn on its idealogical direction - precisely the views of President Pervaiz Muharraf of Pakistan. He is also on record of saying that every country has its strategic interests and Pakistanis should also think likewise. Pakistan is, therefore, taking strategic decisions that are currently challenging the status quo in our society, but will make us a strong moderate islamic country in the future capable of impacting events of international importance. We have already started showing the signs of doing just that.

Romair:

You speculated that Pakistan will join a strategic block of Russia, China and Iran. Let me clarify that Pakistan works very closely with countries like the USA, UK, Italy, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Malaysia (not a complete list) at military and Governmental levels. We have many more shared interests with the USA as a whole than the differences. If at all a cold war type of confrontation takes place between China and the USA, Pakistan will act to bridge the gap than to join any particular block.

urstruly:

In one of your post you very correctly pointed out to arjun that President Musaharraf unnecessarily caved in to the US pressure after 9/11, because he was a dictator and could be easily arm-twisted into doing that. This is something he clearly recognized and subsequent to that, he has learnt to defy undue advantage taking. Here are some examples:

1. We did not send any military to Iraq
2. We did not hand over AQK to the USA
3. We did not vote against Iran
4. We are not showing any signs of relenting to US pressure in its design to corner Iran militarily.

tahmed32:
I am back to enjoy your light hearted hobnobbing with er I know that you know who I mean hahaha. At the same time, I look forward to reading your `secular` views that we Pakistanis do need to listen and pay attention to.

Ijaz-Gul:

From `Scream` board: Thank you.

#114 by dost-mittar
“I still dont get the correlation about pointing to the cabinet tugs of war”

One last attempt, okay!
It works this way. There are differences and ideological issues in every cabinet. Discussion and positioning takes place for every foreign policy issue behind the closed doors or in controlled environments. (Sometimes it does go out in the open) but once a decision or consensus is reached all players stick to it even though they may not agree with it entirely. That is part of putting the best foot forward. So, even though Mani and Natwar had ideological differences with an issue, they will not speak about it(the difference) in public and especially in a foreign country.

When you say that “these two Nehrvian war-horses from a bye-gone era did not know what was brewing in the Prime Minister’s Office.” You are saying they were not part of the PM decision. That does not seem plausible as for energy policy both the foreign minister and the energy minister will have a say or at least some input and would know exactly what the PM’s opinion is on the issue. I hope this helps.

For shia issue, read the last Para again in my post 107. You are drawing wrong conclusion from Manmohan remarks in the US. I don’t read Paraful Bidwai. But he can put spin or English on any thing he wants, you just need to put that thru some logic test.

HP

`` There are differences and ideological issues in every cabinet. Discussion and positioning takes place for every foreign policy issue behind the closed doors or in controlled environments. (Sometimes it does go out in the open) but once a decision or consensus is reached all players stick to it even though they may not agree with it entirely. That is part of putting the best foot forward. So, even though Mani and Natwar had ideological differences with an issue, they will not speak about it(the difference) in public and especially in a foreign country. ``

You describe an idseal position. Certianly, that is how it should be. However, in an ideal position, the PM also has a strong political base and commands authority over the party. That is currently not the case in India. The Congress rank and file, as well as the cabinet in general, owes its positions to Sonia Gandhi and not to Manmohan Singh. Therefore, the level of jockeying in India at the moment is higher than what you would see in say, Western democracies. I must mention that Sonia Gandhi, to her credit has given the PM a free hand as an executive, while maintaining strong control of the political mechanisms of the party. However, in matters of perception at least, certain cabinet members often try to take position thats in their perception will help them curry favor.

Same thing happeed on occasion with the BJP gov`t itself. Eve though Advani and Vajpayee took the same position in public, their respective loyalists often took contrary positions (in public mind you) as a way of demonstrating loyalty.

Not saying that this happened specifically in the Iran case. But it is true that Natwar and MS Aiyar did take positions contrary to what Manmohan Singh said in public in the US. Ofcourse, such a thing would never have happened in Indira Gandhi`s time because both would have been kicked out of the cabinet in 48 hours.

When you say that “these two Nehrvian war-horses from a bye-gone era did not know what was brewing in the Prime Minister’s Office.” You are saying they were not part of the PM decision. That does not seem plausible as for energy policy both the foreign minister and the energy minister will have a say or at least some input and would know exactly what the PM’s opinion is on the issue. I hope this helps.