The Trial of a Nation

You still believe Pakistan has a nuclear bomb? What a laugh! Suit yourself!

You still believe Pakistan has a nuclear bomb? What a laugh! Suit yourself!

I do not understand what all the noise is about. The Nation was tried. Who cares what the verdict was, or who the Judge was? Pakistan got the Bomb, by whatever means and that friends is no mean achievement. That is all that matters.

Faisaluno # 182: `the graph below shows how pkr has traded since 1998. as you will see from the graph, the value of the rupee has actually strenghthened since the end of 2001. this is the first time in the last 26 years that rupee has actually appreciated against the $. in fact i would guess that this is a first in the history of pak that this has happened. i would also like to remind you that rupee stregthening has taken place at a time when oil -pak`s largest import item -and commodity prices have risen to record levels. without the strong dollar inflows and reserves, the impact of oil price rise on pak`s economy would have be pretty brutal.`

It is an interesting chart for PKR but I do not agree with your commentary at all. The chart shows a commodity that has been in a bullish mode since 1998 and has gone into a consolidation phase where the spring is getting tightly coiled. Normally a breakout from a coil follows along the previous trendline and that does not bode well for the PKR.

Percentage wise, the PKR improved against the dollar in 1998 more than since 2001. The improvement since 2001 ended in 2003 and confirmed the double bottoms tested in 2000 and 2001. It also failed to take out the peak established in late 1998 and that confirms the bull trend. Chart reading is an art and not fit for the blind or half blind MBAs from Rawal Pindi.

If someone is going to measure the performance of an economy based on its currency, it would be useful to use a yardstick that is not changing. It would be more useful to plot PKR in terms of OZ. of gold or a basket of currencies rather than US $, that has been in a strong flux. To claim some benefit from oil prices being fixed in Dollars is even more muddled because you introduce a third variable. namely the price of oil, which has gone through the roof since 1998.

Whatever the merits of Urstruly`s article are, at least he does not suffer from the soft brained muddled thinking of soft MBAs and self styled economists. Engineering training does have some merits, even if it was done in Pakistan.)

re:#183 by faisaluno
Puny states like Pakistan indulge in the mistake of thinking that they are in the same league as Russia. Russian help to Iran in nuclear arena may be a balancing act or a way of saying to US that it is still a major power. Pak`s help to Iran, OTOH, will be looked upon as just a nuclear proliferation.
Sridhar

re: Nuclear ``insecurity``
One of the big fallouts of the A.Q.Khan`s nuclear proliferation is that Pak has earned a bad name in the nuclear club. Khan`s proliferation to North Korea, Iran, Libya are slowly coming to light. If he had smuggled in technology (which he did) just for national security and then scrupulously adhered to international norms and not proliferated, the world would have forgiven him and Pak. But the guy was a megalomaniac with intentions that went far beyond just national security. He was trying to create this nuclear weaponry for the muslim ummah to take on the rest of the world. As the Paki Army looked the otherway (or was unaware or did not care, whatever the case may be) he continued to proliferate and even advertised his wares openly in newspapers!
The world today is really concerned about the nuclear technology falling into wrong hands. It is bad enough that terrorists are using crude bombs to kill innocent civilians all over the word but imagine a scenario where these are not crude bombs but nuclear bombs!
A.Q.Khan`s proliferation in that context, was very irresponsible. Nuclear bomb can easily reach Hamas` s hands once Iran starts making nuclear weapons. Israel`s fears are well founded. It will take a long time and concerted efforts by Pak to project itself as a nuclear responsible state.
Sridhar

re: Balkanisation of Pakistan
Yet another Pakistani has attained ``nirvana`` after Ayaz Amir, that is, he has seen the light where most Pakis have not.
An interesting article. Pak, much like the erstwhile Prussia, is an Army with a State. This author argues Pak is being used as a Trojan Horse by USA. Pakis, meanwhile, are fritting away their energy in Jehad.
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/23518
Excerpts:
1. (Recently General Musharraf has started another jugglery show claiming that he is the man of peace. A good move since Kashmir and USSR are no longer in vogue. Musharraf states that he wants friendship with India and Israel. We do not question his good intentions but taken in depth this signals Musharraf`s acceptance that 1947 partition of India was a faux pas. If so many Muslims were killed in 1947, 1965 and 1971 then what was the use of the whole exercise in futility. If Israel is now being engaged by Pakistan`s military junta now why was it not done earlier? Why this whole game? Seen in depth Pakistan`s military junta has an institutional interest in peace now. It wanted war when it suited its institutional interests and it wants peace when it suits Musharraf! Seen in this context Pakistani military junta may be initiating a process similar to the one initiated by Gorbachev that led to disintegration of USSR.)

2. (In the Pakistani context following may be the implications:

* Pakistan`s smaller provinces may question the rationale for Pakistan .If India is not a threat and Afghanistan is a friend why not have an independent Baloch, Pashtun or Sindhi state .Why have a large army which has been involved in a dangerous foreign policy and in aggression against Pakistan`s neighbors. The Durand Line may have significance for the Pakistani junta but for the Baloch and Pashtun it is a Berlin Wall, which will become meaningless one day.


* Why should Pakistan have a nuclear program and a large standing army .Why should not the US insist that Pakistan reduce its army and dismantle its nuclear warheads.

* Conversely if the Pakistan Army is reduced why should the smaller provinces stay with the Pakistani Federal State. It is only the coercive force of the army that has kept the Pakistani confederation together.

* Why should not Pakistan`s neighbors demand a redrawing of boundaries.)
Sridhar

as for nuclear proliferation, thats not a concern because china was fully aware of what was going on. in fact i would argue wrt n.korea, pak was acting as a go between for china. and
since china now is emerging as big dog, pak will be ok. and sure, goras will huff and puff. but then, people dont seem to be paying to much attention to them right now:

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/viewstory.asp?Page=%5CForeignBureaus%5Carchive%5C200512%5CFOR20051205c.html

Russia Calls Sale of Missiles to Iran `Defensive`

Moscow (CNSNews.com) - Russia says its latest weapons sale to Iran, comprising more than $1 billion worth of missiles and other defense systems, is ``exclusively defensive.``

urstruly bhai,

first, please let me know the name of your broker who is quoting you a rate of pkr 69 to a dollar. the reason i am asking is because i can buy as many dollars as i want from the market at 60. my holiday spirit will really rise after i complete the deal with your broker.

second, as i said in an earlier post, most of the rupee depreciation took place in the two year period after the fall of nawaz sharif`s government. just to refresh your memory, pakistan had defaulted on some of its foreign currency obligations under nawaz. generally speaking, most investors regard default as a bad thing and respond by shunning the local currency which drives down its value.

since the default, pak`s credit profile - i.e. its ability to pay back foreign debt - has shown considerable improvement. exports and remittances have nearly doubled to $16 bn and $4 bn respectively and fdi this year will be around $ 2.5 bn - $3 bn compared to negative in `98. this has led to strong dollar inflows and as a result, pak`s reserves have gone up from less than $ 1 bn in `98 to $12 bn currently. because of this, sbp has been able to defend the rupee and maintain a level it sees appropriate. without the dollar reserves, sbp is about as effective as the iraqi army.

the graph below shows how pkr has traded since 1998. as you will see from the graph, the value of the rupee has actually strenghthened since the end of 2001. this is the first time in the last 26 years that rupee has actually appreciated against the $. in fact i would guess that this is a first in the history of pak that this has happened. i would also like to remind you that rupee stregthening has taken place at a time when oil -pak`s largest import item -and commodity prices have risen to record levels. without the strong dollar inflows and reserves, the impact of oil price rise on pak`s economy would have be pretty brutal. (click on the graph for a larger image)



btw, i also have to add that i think your gift of drama is pretty funny.

on pr front, the whole aqk episode is huge disaster for pakistan in the western world public opinion. on one extreme, the conclusion would be that the pakistani nuke establishment and its controller, the military is a rouge operation, involved in clandestine procurement and prolifiration activities with unstable and brutal regimes like north korea. the more charitable opinion would be pakistan does not have its nuke shop under proper state control. so, AQK is to blame if you subscribe to the second opinion.

Sheer waste of time and money to defend a man who is a self-confessed offender and an approver (Sultani gawaah) against the nation. He once used to brag about the devastation and carnage his bomb could bring upon innocent human beings. He was given a free hand to play with the destiny of this nation and what he did with it only time and an independent inquiry will tell.

Btv, in his introduction Mr Zafar has been stated to be a `Barrister`. I doubt very much as I never heard this before. Even his English does not support his claim to barrister-hood.

re: 158

hp, read rommel`s posts - he knows what he`s takling about.

hahaha...ahem how can you argue with a guy who is using the nation for econ stats?

for the rest of us mortals, i suggest the following imf report as a statistical source:

http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/cr05408.pdf

please turn to page 92 to get info on pak`s debt. top line on that page has pak external debt data.

Re: # 177 faisal

Bhai sahib you should at least try to read a report before you post it for public consumption. The Page 89 of this document shows the External debt that GOP has incurred since 1997/98 in (billions of )Pak Rupees, whereas page 92 shows the debt in (millions) of US dollars. Here is the big game of number crunching. If you consder debt in Pak rupees the debt has gone up from Rs. 2479.2 billion in 97/98 to whopping Rs. 4000.00 billion in 04/05. This is what Pakistani nation will have to pay if it decides to pay all of it today.

Now if we take the amounts in US$ the debt in 97/98 was 36072 millions and in 04/05 it was US$ 35882 millions (which is a lower number). This is what our debtors will get if we pay all of our debt today.

The reason for this anamoly is dispoportionate rate of inflation between US$ and Pak rupees and also the exchange rate that has shot up from about Rs. 37 in 97/98 upto Rs. 69 (buying) in 04/05. Another reason for anamoly is that while compiling their statistics IMF uses the exchange rate and dollar value of that particular year, whereas when the nation pays its debt back it has to pay the dollar value for that current year. For example, if the debt of the nation was $1, then if nation decided to pay its debt in `97 it would cost the nation Rs. 37, while if nation decides to pay this debt today, it would cost nation Rs. 69. Now the GDP is a combination of two things, internal revenue, which forms the 75-80% of revenue and extrenal which is the 22% of our export. In simple words Pakistani will pay at todays rate Rs. 17.25 (25%) from the revenue generate from exports and Rs. 51.75 from our internal revenue.

Now you do the math, how the coming generations of Pakistan will pay the debt incurred today, and has it increased or decreased.

The Nation newspaper has used the constant dollar value to calculate its figures , which are pretty much consistent with the debt we incurr everyday as it becomes known to us thru newspapers.

Faisal I appeal to your good conscience to stop deluding yourself and Pakistani nation. Pakistan is facing a moral and financial disaster, which will have its impact more than Bangladesh debacle. The fauji thugs during Bangladesh disaster were only stupid and arrogant, but now that they have form a symbiotic relationship with global vampires, we can only say inallillah-e- wa ina ilaihe rajeoon to pakistan.

godot,

physical infrastucture is in a better shape compared to that of the neighbours although that is not saying much. govt has grand plans for improvemnt and the financing proposals seem credible. politicians, as is their want, are creating hurdles as with the kalabagh dam and therefore have to be neutralised. i think the important thing going forward is going to be the 2007 elections. i will be very optimistic if results go according to govt`s plan.

faisaluno: ``urstruly, you are saying a lot of things which contradict each other.``

yup! that is our urstruly!!

Re: # 173

I always do my homework. I hope the last post would have opened your eyes too. But I really doubt it. You probably belong to that corrupt ruling class of this country who have vested interests in keeping this country begging and corrupt.

urstruly, you are saying a lot of things which contradict each other. let me try and make a little sense out of it.

i. i agree that pak should avoid borrowing money from foreigners because we dont want non pakistanis to have a say in our affairs.

ii. you will be happy to know that pak`s foreign debt has been constant over the last 5 years at $35bn. in comparison, during the decade of democracy, pak`s foreign debt went up from $20bn to $40bn. so by this measure, the current govt has out performed the previous governments. furthermore, nationally assembly has passed a law which puts a limit on govt budget deficit. this law will insure that pak will not get into a pickle it found itself in at the end of nawaz sharif`s hukumath.

iii. since pak has borrowed money from abroad, it has to pay it back. and the only three ways it can pay back foreign debt is by (i) attracting foreign investment (2) producing goods that are in demand abroad (3) discovering oil. since i am not a petroleum engineer, i cant comment on (3). also given the level of human capital in pak, it will not be possible in the short run to increase exports to a level needed to payback foreign debt. realistically then it only leaves us with option (i) if we want to rid ourselves of foreign debt. to attract foreign investment, pak will have to (1) assure security to foreign investors (2) convince them that foreign investors will make money by investing in pak. the way to achieve (1) is to play by the rules laid down by investors which means following policies as recommended by the multi-lateral institutions. once pak becomes as rich as say malaysia, pak can thumb its nose at the multi-lateral agencies like mahatir did.

iv. if pakistan defaults on foreign debt, it will be in a worse shape than iraq after sanctions because pakistan, unlike iraq, does not have oil. default will mean that pak among otherthings will not be able to pay for oil imports which means that pak economy will stop functioning. in addition, pak will not be able to pay for medicine either.

v. the stock market is almost back to where it was in march. also people who have stayed with the market on a long term basis have made more money than they could have imagined. also i have no sympathy for any individual that tries to play the stock market for short term gains. investing for long term is a different matter.

vi. interest rates rise and fall depending on the cycle of the economy. obviously depositors lose out when rates fall. otoh lower real interest rates stimulate the economy which puts food on the table of people who might otherwise be jobless.

vii. you have to be a sick fucker to blame gang rapes on govt.

viii. although i live abroad, i grew up in a middle class household in n.nazimabad. yet through hard work, i have done very well for myself mashallah. thankfully, i also did not have mentors like you.

Re: # 171 faisal

Are you for real?

1. Pakistan should not borrow money not only for that that we lose our sovereignity but our next generations will pay it back through their noses ( and rears).

2. Pakistan has incurred 10 billion US dollar worth of loan in the last 5 years alone. The kicker is that a couple of months ago Shortcut Aziz bragged that ``hum ne kashkol torr diya hay``( We have broken our begging pan) and the very next day he signed a deal with Japan for a loan of US$ 550 million.

Probably this will open your eyes. And have mercy on people of Pakistan and stop disseminating government lies and propaganda without verification.




Pakistan obtained $10b foreign loans


By Javed Mahmood


LAHORE - Pakistan has obtained about $10 billion worth foreign loans in last four and a half years, The Nation learnt on Sunday.

Besides the loans, the country raised $1.10 billion debt from the international financial markets by offering Euro and ‘Sukuk’ bonds in the last couple of years.
Data collected by The Nation revealed that Pakistan obtained $1.60 billion foreign loans in 2000-01, $2.316 billion in 2001-02, $1.55 billion in 2002-03, $1.242 billion in 2003-04 and $2 billion in July-December period of 2004-05.


Meanwhile, the government also introduced Euro bonds worth $500 million and Sukuk bonds amounting to $600 million in international market.

The inflow of foreign loans, obtained by Shaukat Aziz-led economic team, belie the government claims that it has forsaken begging bowl and reduced reliance on external borrowings. Contrarily, the Kashkol (Begging bowl) has been extended to raise more and more foreign loans during the last few years.

The government in December last year returned last two tranches of Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This exercise made the government to indulge in hollow sloganeering that dependence on foreign loans has been given up and that it is in a position to survive without foreign loans.
However, the federal government claims nosedived when it rushed to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to obtain more loans to support foreign exchange reserves, facing pressure due to widening trade imbalance, stabilise rupee against dollar and pay the rising import bill.

The Nation learnt that government officials held frequent meetings with the said two donor agencies, which enabled it to disburse about $2 billion in July to December this fiscal.
The huge disbursement of foreign loans in six months of this financial year seems a new record because, in the past, the annual disbursement never exceeded $2 billion mark.
Official sources say that in 2004-05, the total lending of the donors to Pakistan might exceed $3 billion as the WB and ADB have not only enhanced the size of lending, but also expedited the disbursements.

Interestingly, in July to December this fiscal the total foreign debt of Pakistan increased by $1.45 billion from $35.25 billion in 2003-04 to $36.70 billion, mainly due to federal government’s policy to obtain more and more loans.

The burden of foreign loans on Pakistan is expected to further increase in next three years as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have doubled the annual lending to Pakistan under the new three-year programme on the request of the federal government, sources maintained.

http://nation.com.pk/daily/may-2005/16/index5.php

Re: # 171

Faisal

How`s Pakistan doing in building physical infrastructure, ie, roads, bridges, etc, and connecting the country?

its absolutely amazing that pakistanis know (and some even know where they live) all the luminaries of nuke-programs. Indians can name Homi Bhabha, but noone else. Even Kalam became famous only after he became pres candidate.

if a direct head-on election were to be held bet mush and AQ, my bet is AQ would win.

godot, cant say i completely agree with you. the sole criteria should be merit and i for one would not be very happy if gender came into consideration in the selection for such an important role. in my opinion, govt should be applauded for appointing people with right qualifications rather than making decisions based on gender. however i do think that media needs to highlight the achievements of women who make it on merit because of dearth of successful female role models. urdu press certainly needs to look beyond people like qadeer khan who if nothing else certianly do hog the spotlight.

Re: # 168

Faisal

I very strongly believe in merit-based society. However, I think appointment of qualified women at critical positions in Pakistan is very important. Pakistani girls need role models for inspiration. Women are half the Pakistani population. Pakistan must take advantage of this huge but untapped asset.

HP

Indeed, it seems inappropriate to label Mr. Khan as Xerox Khan. He couldn`t have had unfettered access to photocopying facilities (if those were available at all). An alternative story is that he escaped detection by transcribing classified documents in Urdu script. But assuming that he had to contend with at least some figures and diagrams, he likely did more than simply transcribe.

urstruly, do you have proof to suggest that dr. ishrat hussain pulled a fast one over bloomberg? btw you may also want to keep a vigilant eye on the new governor. seems to me that she will be as bad as if not worse than the previous governor.

http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=360913&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=

...Will she be able to maintain the high standards for the prestigious office set by the outgoing Governor of State Bank of Pakistan, Dr Ishrat Husain?

...Upon the retirement of Khalid Mirza, as Chairman of Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, she was offered this job. She reportedly declined the offer, as she wanted to live in Karachi with her ageing parents.

...Ms Akhtar could work for eight more years at the ADB, under the Bank`s rules, and will be taking a huge cut in her retirement benefits on resigning to assume the office of SBP Governor.

...But the overriding factor, besides her qualifications, was the perception that other candidates being considered were known for their affiliations with the government, and there was a keen desire not to create a perception that SBP once again had become an appendage of the Ministry of Finance.

The following profile of the new governor reflects the qualities and qualifications she is known for.

WORK EXPERIENCE:Director General (South East Asia) appointed January 2004.

-- Deputy Director General (South East Asia) appointed May 2003.

-- Head of a regional department that structures and intermediates ADB assistance program for the larger Asean including active borrowers such as the Philippines and Indonesia and co-ordinates regional co-operation among large Asean.

-- Managed and supervised four sector divisions handling lending and technical assistance programme for infrastructure sector, governance, finance and trade, agriculture, environment, and natural resources, social sectors and two resident missions located in Philippines and Indonesia.

-- Director, Governance, Finance and Trade Division (From 1998 to January 1, 2002).

REGIONAL COVERAGE: East and Central Asian Republics as well as South East Asia: China, Korea, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

SECTOR COVERAGE: Banking sector, SME, microfinance and other rural market financial intermediation, Pension and Insurance sector, banking and enterprise restructuring and privatisation, corporate governance and work with regulators, governance and private sector assessment work, trade liberalisation and facilitation, governance of public and private sector companies and issues of public sector resource management.

The job involved leading country and sector specific studies and analysis and providing advise to all financial regulators and economic ministers to adopt effective monetary and fiscal policy and management, and develop effective independence and accountability of regulators.

Worked on restructuring the financial sectors and strengthening of the legal, regulatory and institutional framework. Worked with different teams to further structured and strategised ADB lending, technical assistance and policy dialogue on all these subjects.

AMONG OTHERS, FEW EXAMPLES OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS INVOLVED

(i) structuring and implementation of the two large post-financial crisis ADB programs of close to $4 billion to Korea and $1.5 billion for Indonesia to resurrect the collapsed financial sectors,

(ii) advise on modernising and strengthening of the newly created China`s central bank, securities and insurance regulators, and structuring of a pension reform agenda, and

(iii) SOE enterprise restructuring and privatisation and corporate governance program for China, Indonesia, financial sector programs in Indonesia and a number of Central Asian Republics etc.

Interfaced with all countries regulators and finance ministers and had structure initiatives to catalyse the private investment fund managers and other financial intermediaries.

CONCURRENTLY, APPOINTED BY ADB PRESIDENT: Head of the Secretariat of Apec Finance Ministers Process (1998-2002):

This involved leading economic and sector work in the post-financial crisis period and policy dialogue with the Deputies and Finance Ministers on the global, regional and national financial architecture of Apec economies.

WORKED ON SEVERAL BROAD RANGING INITIATIVES: Debate on evolution and strengthening of regional financial architecture for Asian economies including issues surrounding capital flows, banking regulations including the Basle-II Accord and its consequences for developing country financial regulators, diversification of non-bank financial sector, introduction of introduction among Asia of corporate governance standards and reforms of stock exchanges, integration of private sector in this debate and assessing implications of regional financial architecture on financial institutions in developing countries etc.

ADB representative in the Bank International Settlement and International Organisation for Securities Commission and other international forums.

-- Appointed in 2001 as one of the 7-member internal working group to reorganise ADB.

-- Senior Financial Sector Specialist: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. (1996 to mid 1998).

-- Senior Country Economist: South Asia with more dedicated work on India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (1990 to 1996).

In these two jobs task managed/supervised large loan and TA transactions, among others were:

1. Indonesia - Non-bank Financial Governance Program Loan ($350 million), 2001

2. Indonesia - Financial Governance Reform Sector Program Loan ($1.5 billion), 1999-2001

3. Korea- Financial Sector Program Loan ($4 billion) 1999-2001)

4. China - TAs for the Peoples Bank of China and Securities and Insurance Regulators

5. China - Pension Reform Program

6. Pakistan - Export and Industry Competitiveness Loan ($200 million), 1998

7. Pakistan - Capital Market Development Programme Loan ($200 million), 1997

8. India - Gujarat Public Sector Resource Management Programme, ($250 million), 1996 - first MDB policy based operation in India focused on reforms at the state level. Reforms included public sector resource management (rationalisation public expenditures and strengthening the revenue base), improved tax administration, infrastructure regulatory policy development, and privatisation of state owned enterprises.

9. Kyrgyz Republic - Financial Intermediation and Resource Mobilisation Programme

10. Kyrgyz Republic - Corporate Governance and Enterprise Restructuring Programme

11. Indonesia - SOE Governance and Privatisation Programme

12. Philippine - Non-bank Financial Governance Programme

ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK

-- Contributed chapters to several issues of the World Bank, Pakistan Country Economic Reports.

-- ADB country economic reports and country operational strategy for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

-- Structured and prepared reports and papers on:

-- estimation and dimensions of poverty

-- public finance including federal, provincial and local government fiscal arrangements and issues

-- resource mobilisation

-- public sector resource management

-- financial sector regulation

-- corporate governance

WORLD BANK (1980-1989): Country Economist at the World Bank`s Pakistan Resident Office in Islamabad. During this period, worked on a number of sector studies and projects and contributed annually to the World Bank`s Country Economic Report that was presented to the Paris Consortium Meeting to raise the required aid assistance for Pakistan.

Government of Pakistan (1980-1981) Economist in the National Income and Economic Research Division of the Federal Planning Commission first in Islamabad and than briefly at the Planning and Development Department in the Government of Sindh, Karachi which is a provincial government.

EDUCATION

-- Harvard University, USA (1986-1987) Post-Doctoral Fellow and US Fullbright Scholar at Department of Economics.

-- Council of National Academic Award UK (1978-1980), Ph D Economics: Awarded a Scholarship from the UK Government.

-- University of Sussex, UK (completed in December 1977) Masters of Arts Degree in Development Economics; Awarded UK Government scholarship

-- The University of Islamabad, Pakistan (completed in August 1975, MSc (Economics).

-- University of Punjab, Islamabad, Pakistan (1972-1974) Bachelor of Arts (Economics).

Re: # 164 faisal

Consider this:

In the recent donors conference for earthquake victims, the ``world community`` aka. global soodkhors, promised 5.8 billions in ``aid``. This is being promoted by this regime as a big accomplishment. Not many people would know that out of this 5.8 billion, only a fraction i.e. 1.8 b is the aid and rest 4 billion is going to be debt.

In the past every military dictatorship and their political front have taken exhorbitant amount of debt from aalmi soodkhors. In other word these international lenders have invested heavily in Pakistan and like any other investor they want return on their investment. For that, and also to make sure that their investment is safe, from time to time they have started appointing government officials in the GOP. The most prominent examples are, PM Mouinuddin Qureshi and Shortcut Aziz. Now the situation has come to the point that the foreigners dicatate even the basic services that government provides like electric and gas bills, railway fairs, and other taxation. The military regime is used as enforcer to impose their demands and hence brigadiers in military have become meter readers. In other words, corrupt military regime provides muscle to the baniya. We have lost our sovereignity because of the perks and privileges that rogue military and their lawless civilian cohorts enjoy as compensation at nations expense. This is one of the reasons military regime has deliberately not asked for forgoing of debt from US in return for the services they provide to america to establish its global colonial agenda. They want to keep this avenue open.

But this is just one part of the rackett. Lets not forget that under the watchful eyes of the Governor Ishrat and chaiman of S&C Pakistani investors were swindeled out of more than Rs. 600 Billion recently. Most of these investors were retirees and widows. This is how it worked. The madarchod Shaukat Aziz, reduced the interest rates on saving schemes like defence saving certificates etc from 19-23% down to 3.5%. The investors panicked and started looking for other ways to protect whatever they were left with. Meantime, corrupt military generals and other racketeers like Ch. Shujaat (who were already experienced from the scams like cooperative banks of the 90s) etc. setup fake companies in the stock exchange and started promoting new and ``safe`` avenues of investment. The result: with in a year widows started selling their houses and started begging for jobs as housemaids; retirees started comitting suicides; and young men started taking revenge on society by gang rapes and robberies.

But you wouldn`t know. You probably live in a Pakistan where bureaucracy never stops the file; you don`t need to gease any palms, uncles phone call do it all; the police never stops you at check points and ask you for money or else, but salutes you with a ``sorry sir``.

Re: # 164

Faisal

Ms Shamshad Akhtar seems very qualified and accomplished. However, it cannot escape one`s eye that she is a woman appointed to one of the most prominent and important jobs. I say kudos to the current government in promoting women in Pakistan and appointing them at such important positions.

Mr. HP,

Who told you that AQKhan was incharge of nuke testing? If he was then why did the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission conduct the 1998 tests? or even those were conducted by AQKhan? You need to educate yourself about what goes into the making of a nuclear device and what roles the PAEC and AQKhan played in the programs on the technical level. It is you who is relying on newspaper reports, not me.


What nonsense are you talking about security clearance for KRL regarding Munir? He was PAEC Chairman, or is PAEC Chairman an alien for you? or did he come from Mars or Pluto? or was he working for the Indian RAW or Mossad? Just tell me this, why was Munir allowed to remain PAEC Chairman for 19 long years if he did not have security clearance? I am sure you have been reading stuff about Munir that is fed by AQKhan`s paid propaganda writers. Do some objective research before making conclusions. If the PAEC was only restricted to the power program, then where did the Khushab plutonium reactor come from? where did the Centre for Nuclear Studies come from? where did AQKhan get the uranium hexafloride gas, the crucial raw material for enrichment if PAEC was not producing the same? Who built the Chaghi tunnels? why was Samar Mubarakmand, former Member (Technical) PAEC incharge of nuclear testing in 1998 if AQKhan was involved in nuclear tests? AQKhan was never involved with nuclear weapon design, development or manufacture, or any of the steps involved in the nuclear fuel cycle leading to enrichment and subsequently fuel fabrication and plutonium reprocessing.

So if Munir did not have security clearance, then how come those working under him like Samar and Ishfaq had security clearance to conduct the 1998 tests?

How come Samar Mubarikmand is today Chairman NESCOM and why is he heading the nuclear weapons production and missile production programs when he is Munir Ahmad Khan`s trained scientist who worked for 19 yrs under Munir in various projects like NDC and others?

Remember, KRL was there before AQKhan came to Pakistan. It was called Project-706 under Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood. It was only separated in order to ensure that all work in not concentrated in one place.


Please get your facts straight before passing judgements on the PAEC and Munir Khan. So much for security clearance at KRL that AQKhan sold state secrets and equipment for money. Is this the criteria for making people heroes in Pakistan?

If AQKhan was the father of the bomb, he would have been incharge of nuclear testing also, which he was not, because he never had any thing to do with nuclear weapons. Nuclear Physics and Metallurgy do not mix. We are not talking about high school subjects that a metallurgist can learn everthing under the sun because he is AQKhan. Even President Musharraf in an interview with a Japanese newspaper said that AQKhan had nothing to do with nuclear weapons.

That is why the only proliferation charges relate to the one step under AQKhan and not PAEC. If PAEC was involved in power generation only, then we would have had many more power plants than we have today. The fact that PAEC was heading the nuclear weapons program is proof that all its resources were focused on nuclear weapons development.

So what are your sources of information? newspaper reports and books written by AQKhan`s paid writers? or the scientists themselves?

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakOrigin.html
Origin of Pakistan`s Nuclear Weapon Program

Unlike India`s nuclear weapons program, that traces back to an early but indefinite time, actual initiation of Pakistan`s program can be assigned a very definite date - 24 January 1972. On this date President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto committed Pakistan to acquiring nuclear weapons at a secret meeting held in Multan in the wake of the country`s devastating defeat in the 1971 Bangladesh war.

This was meeting, and the program that resulted from it, were initiated by Bhutto himself, the enactment of a long-standing personal agenda executed at the earliest opportunity he had. A proper study of this program thus must trace the history of Ali Bhutto himself, and his developing interest in the nuclear option for Pakistan.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was born on 5 January 1928 into an aristocratic family of the Rajput nobility, which possessed (and possesses) near-feudal power in the Sindh region of what is now Pakistan. Bhutto was very much to the manor born -- his father was prominent in the Raj, the British colonial government, and was even knighted. Bhutto was educated at the best Western universities: Berkeley and Oxford. Brilliant and charismatic, Bhutto felt early that he was a man of destiny. After practicing law and lecturing in England, he returned to Pakistan in 1953 to practice law in Karachi. In 1957 he served as a delegate to the United Nations, and after Mohammad Ayub Khan took control of the government in a coup, Bhutto became a cabinet minister at only 30.

By that time Pakistan had already initiated a national nuclear program, a relatively early date, though later than India. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) was set up in 1956 so that it could participate in the Atoms for Peace program announced by the Eisenhower administration, but development was slow in its early years.

Things began to pick up in 1960. The nuclear program acquired a new patron -- the Minister of Mineral and Natural Resources, named Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. In 1960 Dr. Ishrat H. Usmani was appointed Chairman of the PAEC. Usmani would be responsible for setting in motion many of the critical programs and institutions that would later give Pakistan nuclear weapons. Usmani started Pinstech (full name variously given as the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology, and the Pakistan Institute of Science and Technology) and the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant. One of Usmani`s most momentous achievement is said to be the training program under which brilliant young Pakistanis were selected and sent for training abroad. Between 1960 and 1967 some six hundred were selected of whom 106 eventually returned with doctorate degrees.

Also in 1960 the US gave Pakistan a $350,000 grant to help prepare Pakistan for its first research reactor which the United States agreed to supply two years later. This reactor, a 5 MW light-water research reactor known as the Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor (PARR-1), began operating in 1965 at Pinstech in Nilore.

In 1963 Bhutto became Foreign Minister, carrying his interest in nuclear capabilities into office with him. He watched with growing concern as China moved closer to nuclear capability, and in response India`s domestic rhetoric on the subject grew more bellicose.

During 1964, when China`s first nuclear test seemed imminent, factions in India including India`s most politically prominent scientist (Homi Bhabha, who also led India`s nuclear program), were openly agitating for nuclear weapons. Evidence suggests that India`s new interest in the nuclear option was of great concern to Pakistan. Reports from the fall of 1964 into mid 1965 indicate considerable concern by President Ayub Khan, and his Foreign Minister, who was none other than Ali Bhutto [Pervkovich 1999, p. 108]. In March both men met with Chou En-lai in Beijing, a meeting both felt had very positive results and developed Chinese support for Pakistan. It was shortly after this, in mid-1965, that Bhutto uttered his famous and prophetic oath about matching India`s nuclear capability (see at the top of this page).

Salam,

A.Q.Khan did not return to Pakistan in 1975. He arrived in 1976, two years after the Kahuta Project had been started. He never took over the nuclear program. He only headed one step in a series of equally important 24 steps that lead to a bomb. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission remained the overall incharge of the bomb program, including uranium enrichment, under PAEC Chairman Munir Ahmad Khan. They built the bomb and tested the weapons in 1983 and 1998. Western media reports are prone to inaccurate reporting on Pakistan`s nuclear program, without understanding the facts. For eg. A.Q.Khan is accused of helping North Korea with the plutonium program and the bomb design, when in fact AQKhan had not training or knowledge of plutonium or the nuclear weapons design or development. His designs were never adopted by Pakistan because they had failed cold tests. Nuclear weapons design, development, manufacture and testing as well the nuclear fuel cycle and plutonium development as well as many aspects of enrichment, being part of the nuclear fuel cycle, were solely done by PAEC.

Regards.

Pakistan
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/nuchist.htm
--1972: Following its third war with India, Pakistan secretly decides to start nuclear weapons program to match India`s developing capability. Canada supplies reactor for the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant, heavy water and heavy-water production facility.

--1974: Western suppliers embargo nuclear exports to Pakistan after India`s first test of a nuclear device.

--1975: Purchasing of components and technology for Kahuta uranium-enrichment centrifuge facility begins after return of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, German-trained metallurgist who takes over nuclear program.

--1976: Canada stops supplying nuclear fuel for Karachi.

--1977: German seller provides vacuum pumps, equipment for uranium enrichment. Britain sells Pakistan 30 high-frequency inverters for controlling centrifuge speeds. United States halts economic and military aid over Pakistan`s nuclear-weapons program.

--1978: France cancels deal to supply plutonium reprocessing plant at Chasma.

--1979: United States imposes economic sanctions after Pakistan is caught importing equipment for uranium enrichment plant at Kahuta.

--1981: Smuggler arrested at U.S. airport while attempting to ship two tons of zirconium to Pakistan. Nevertheless, Reagan administration lifts sanctions and begins generous military and financial aid because of Pakistani help to Afghan rebels battling Soviets.

--1983: China reportedly supplies Pakistan with bomb design. U.S. intelligence believes Pakistani centrifuge program intended to produce material for nuclear weapons.

--1985: Congress passes Pressler amendment, requiring economic sanctions unless White House certifies that Pakistan is not embarked on nuclear weapons program. Islamabad is certified every year until 1990.

--1986: Pakistan, China sign pact on peaceful use of nuclear energy, includin

Urs Truly,

I agree that AQKhan must never be handed over to any outsider, either from the IAEA or anywhere else, and only Pakistani law should be applied to him. Having said that, you must understand that what ever he is going through has a history to it and is the fruit of his own deeds that he committed in the past. You cannot deny that he is completely innocent as far as the proliferation charges are concerned. Yes, he is certainly not alone, with many powerful accomplices who managed to get away with it, while he could not. But ofcourse, again, how could he get away with it when he himself had put in 30 years in building his self-styled image and myth as the nuclear god-father of Pakistan, when he did not deserve any of it in reality. The West picked him up simply because of his high profile defection from Urenco, and then he became a liability for Pakistan, since he could not have been disowned at any point in time. Thereafter successive governments used his high profile image in the Western media to act as a cover and a decoy for the scientists at the PAEC where the real work was being done. But during all this, he managed to get out of control and knew no bounds to his megalomania. How many scientists around the world engaged in the nuclear program have had such insatiable appetite for self-glorification, all at the cost of national interest as he has had?

One most important point, the west is not crazy for targeting him, he was the only scientist along with his accomplices at KRL who was involved in proliferation. Why does the west not target the PAEC people? Because PAEC folks never indulged in such activities. They too had secret funds and immense powers at their disposal. Yet they behaved with maturity, responsibility and put the supreme national interest above personal gains and self-glory.

It is precisely because AQKhan had built himself up as the nuclear father that he became the target of the west and it is for this reason alone that he knew he could not be caught and he got away with whatever he did. Yes Pakistan is not a signatory of the NPT, but we are a responsible nation, and we must behave with utmost nuclear responsibility, otherwise we run the risk of inviting self-destruction like Saddam`s Iraq. there is no morality in International Relations, there is only power politics and small nations have to play it very safe. But was AQKhan not a signotory to the Official Secrets Act?

why did the PAEC scientists not indulge in such activities?Did AQKhan not violate the trust that was bestowed upon him, although at great cost to the national interest retrospectively, by the nation? He could not have dreamed of the life of such opulance and power that he enjoyed in Pakistan while he was at Urenco. Yet he sold material under his administrative control to Libya, Iran and North Korea, the three countries that the West calls the axis of evil, along with his accomplices for personal greed. It is a shame how white collar criminals are defended without realizing that his actions have put Pakistan`s nuclear program`s credibility at stake and put a ready made case in the hands of the enemies of Pakistan to be used any time against us in the future. Remember, Iraq was attacked and occupied on the mere suspicion of developing weapons of mass destruction. AQKhan has shown that Pakistan has been helping other states with producing nuclear weapons, and is the centre of illegal nuclear smuggling. The tragedy is that he has cast serious doubts about the credibility of the entire Pakistani nuclear scientific community, when 99 percent of them are patriotic, honest and responsible people, committed to national interest and world peace. Nuclear Weapons are to be treated with immense maturity and responsibilty.

Had AQKhan been in any other country, he would have been tried for high treason along with his accomplices in a court of law. Is he above the law or is his image more dear to us or is Pakistan`s nuclear program and interest more dear to us? Both cannot go together. If such people are allowed to get away with their crimes, then we will have the world at our doorstep demanding sanctions, nuclear roll back, opening of our nuclear sites to the IAEA supervision and control and inspection and God forbid, military action as an extreme step.

AQKhan has brought harm, dishonor and disgrace to Pakistan. His role in the nuclear program is marginal. His actions have put the credibility of Pakistan in the eyes of the world in serious jeapoardy. He has through his actions given the enemies of Pakistan a very clear issue to use against our nuclear program and harm our national security. So make a choice, are we prepared to stand up to the world for a man who sold his nation for money, or are we more interested in safeguarding Pakistan? Individuals come and go, nations and institutions remain. National security demands that we start thinking rationally and maturely, rather than fall for emotional hogwash and ruin whatever we have painstaikingly built in the past 50 years.

We must show that we are a responsible nuclear power where the rule of law prevails, not a rogue state which is a source of nuclear blackmarketing. Is Pakistan more dear to us or is Iran , North Korea and Libya more dear? Imagine what would have happened if Musharraf had not acted wisely. We would have had sanctions, then military action. Tell me, how long can we stand up to a US attack with India joining in? How long can we stand up against sanctions alone? Therefore the wise thing to do is to accept what wrong has happened and rectify our mistakes.

If the west was making up stories,and if they wanted to target our nuclear program without any solide justification, they should have targeted the PAEC as well because that is where most of the work is done. KRL was there before AQKhan, and will remain after him also. Pakistan`s nuclear program was hijacked by AQKhan for his personal fame and glory, and now his actions have proven that giving him autonomy was a big mistake. Yes, he is not alone in all this, and all others, regardless of status, must be brought to justice.

Long Live Pakistan.

#138 by r.a.janjua
#121 by Rommel

Janjua and Rommel, I think you don’t need to rely on the newspapers accounts of the history of Pakistan nuke development. As some Journalists would write any thing based on where their interests lie.

The reality is that Munir Khan was not even allowed to enter KRL. He lacked the security clearance to enter the premises; therefore, chances of his being the father of Pakistani nuke program are next to nothing. PAEC was involved in power generation part of the nuke energy and had nothing to do with the nuke testing program which was completely under AQKhan’s control.

I have often heard this argument that AQkhan is a Metallurgist by training. True, but there is nothing in the nuclear science that a trained scientist cannot pickup or understand after a little study.

Even A-Dull here claims to be a nuke scientist after reading “high school calculus and serber`s `delightful` book and learning about the Shamiana” Talk about clueless, delusional and a Shamiana aficionado

Obviously, Dr.AQKhan is a trained scientist and extremely brilliant too, he certainly should not have any problems with grabbing that knowledge.

If you know how the research labs work, you would never question his ability to supervise a nuke lab. Research Labs are headed by scientists but the head honcho is almost never the hands on guy. He job, like any other CEO, is to put out firefights, arrange funds, build up the lab work and mostly do the PR work.

KRL had plenty of nuke scientists and there was no need for AQKhan to do the actual work. There were and still are some extremely competent scientists working at KRL. So it really was unimportant whether he was a Metallurgist by education and training.

#140 by kaalchakra
“but with making xerox copies of classified technical documents, and smuggling those xerox copies.”

I think you really have some misconception about the “copying” part of it. I don’t know if the Xerox machines were popular back in 1974 but when we talk about diagrams and designs especially in a sensitive area like this, we are talking about 100s of pages of drawings and plotters. So “copying” is not as simple a matter as people make it out to be, especially back in 1974.

If at all, he probably took notes and tried to understand the process.

This most convincing article coming from the right...but this not mean right is right...

#150 by ahmadzai on December 4, 2005 7:26pm PT


4) USA is about to sign an investment treaty with Pakistan.


which is nothing like the free trade agreement the paki government is seeking..India can already export an unlimited amount of software to the US..



5) It is the USA and Israel that want Pakistan recognize the latter, whereas we are talking from the position of strength.


As much as i`d like to clear this delusion, I`ll let urstruly do it...

urstruly...take it away...

#154 by Urstruly on December 4, 2005 8:27pm PT

Urstruly pays taxes to the US government..

Tax $$ are used to build America`s military might.

America`s military might means Uncle Sam can lean on Musharraf to put AQK in the paki doghouse.

hmm...seems to me like urstruly`s money is being used to put AQK in the paki doghouse.

faisal

there are four degrees of lies:

lies

damn lies

statistics

and GOP statistics, which is the ultimate level of lies that only Satan himself can concoct.

Re: # 152


It is very saddest thing to see by eyes the greatest practical science giant and engineer of IRP kept in house arrest by its own government. Do cover the part of Govt of IRP the her greatest son ( after Jinnah and Bhutto) is used as pawn to satisfy USA Govt.

Giants make big mistakes. And Dr. Khan may have made few mistakes but they are economical cheating etc. He may have sold some technology and materials and made money but that is happening all time all spheres of life and corruption and making money unethical way is integrated vertically and horizontally in social , economical, intelluctual life and needs to move things. Even I can admit I have not paid taxes according to spirit of law. Now I do not give importance to people who have made no such thing as that is not virtue but necessity as they do not make much money.

Did he did against policies of IRP ? Answer is no, He did what was proposed to done by govt.
Our nukes have no value unless they can fly and strike Indian cities and obliterate and and fire burn enemy cities. Due to his effort and exchanges with korea country that was possible. They got nuke and IRP got little help in heroic name carrying missiles. That was reason when provoked by Indian Nayyar newspapeman when he said “IRP has no nukes”. He answered as in mythical drama brilliantly saying I can burn Delhi and Bombay In 5 minutes. He is spirited engineer and does not consider fake modesty as virtue.

Unfortunately dr. khan is like a great African lion caged and ridiculed by short pigmies. When I was small saw a big tiger from E.Pakistan in big cage. That majestic animal beast was reduced to dog. Little boys and girls were hurling little stones and hitting and then stupid woman came with umbrella and strike his nice coat. Helpless beast cried with pain and moved away. I feel exactly same way the lion of IRP Shere E Pakistan is caged by evil general and he is acting as ringmaster and making great khan bend as general does before his wild west American boss. It is sad General reduced him to common thief and made him ask for mercy not to hand over to Americans give protection.

General demolished his political challenge as he had ambition to lead nation. Now his chances are gone. There is Lab people who were jalous of Dr. Khans chances of getting prestigious nobel prize type. They stabbed him. Some became envious of his money specially hotels around in asia and afrika. General also did not follow law of rule then why great khan only selectively selected for punishment.

Heaven will be kinder to him than army generals.
There should be movement to free Shere E Pakistan from clutches of Evil general ringmasters so great Khan can go free and roar like lion and put fear in hearts of evil men and women who has bad intensions for IRP in their hearts. General will come and go, prime ministers will come and kicked out but Great Dr.Khan and his people (IRP) will always go ahead with great assets protecting IRP.


Let month has 1000 days and Dr.Khan live 1000 years.
And down with ring master general and his GHQ staff for tormenting gentleman.

Re: # 153

Aamen! brother. Long live the King - Sher-e-Pakistan, Dr. AQK. Down with vultures and hyennas.

Ahmadzai

I find it absolutely disgusting; as a matter of fact it makes my skin crawl when people put forth the criteria to measure the adeptness of a nation by the level of approval it has by the United States. This is ultimate moral and mental bankruptcy and accute degree of mental vassalage. WE have our own system of values; and I would like Pakistan to be judged by that system of values. So pardon me if I ignore your posts.

The four points that you have mentioned are, arrogant, self-serving, and condescending. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan is occupied by a corrupt, spineless, and arrogant ruling class who have dug their fangs deep into the jugular of the nation. The nation has been demoralized, held hostage, and terrorized into submission by the corruption and lawlessness they have induced into the system. Unfortunately, NaPak fauj provide the muscle to this corrupt class and some Mullahs , and lotay politicians on the payroll provide cover to this ruling class. People of Pakistan are not stupid; they are just helpless. Please do not add insult to the injury of the people by your condescending posts. Thank you.

Urstruly:

Since you have not answered my previous post, I would like to recap the battle in the international arena between pro- Musharraf (e.g. people like me) and anti-Musharraf (people like you):

You defeated us comprehensively in the following areas :-)

1. Sending military to Iraq
2. Not stoping our nuclear development program
3. Not stopping our missile development program
4. Not letting US military enter FATA.

We defeated you in the following areas:

1) After Pakistan and Italy led the move of not letting India, Brazil, Japan and Germany become permanent members of the UN, the USA sided with Pakistani position. This reflects the political weight Pakistan carries.

2) USA accorded non NATO alliance status to Pakistan

3) USA sent its military helicopters to help Pakistan round the clock. USA saw the over-whelming unity amongst the people of Pakistan.

4) USA is about to sign an investment treaty with Pakistan.

5) It is the USA and Israel that want Pakistan recognize the latter, whereas we are talking from the position of strength.

6) Our strength is reflected from such instances when the foreign office spokeswoman rebukes IAEA on letting Al B meet AQK directly.

Net result is that it is not pro and anti Musharraf people, not you and I, but entire Pakistani nation that is winning.

In the meantime, we should consider the chapter of Dr. AQK closed for it would be only fundoo Indoos who will bask if we continue to do that.

i agree with urstrulys article premise. the west is constantly watching and they found AQ as a nice scapegoat, it was like an encouter killing, the allowed AQ to be caught. the ``exposed`` links with malaysian industries were enlightning. getting libya to show-up to the party was high melodrama.

mr janjua, indias days of ``trying to do everything`` is history. its far more open to getting cheaper tech, even by begging (very low cost apprach if it works), but it has a healthy wariness about ``serving`` foreign masters.

re:#137 by ahmadzai
Ha, ha!
Fanciful thinking.
Show me the link where such thinking is prevalent in congress. Indian caucus in US is powerful enough and would have gotten wind of such thinking, if there was one.
So, this is just a creation of your mind. If you have some data, please present it.
India and US are gearing up towards a stretegic tie up. Nuclear tieup is only a small beginning. I will post the full extent of this tie up in my future posts. Suffice it to say that US sees India as a strategic partner in Asia and is concerned about the ever increasing Chinese military power.
Pak is important to US in as far as it would want to contain Al-Qaida and hunt for terrorists. I have not seen any strategic tie up with Pak, nor any big time investments.
Sridhar

re:#143 by avkrishna
APJ Kalam is more than average. The most famous scientist Einstein has already said: success is 90% perspiration and 10% inspiration. Kalam is outstanding in everything that he does because he is motivated and also a motivator of people. He spearheaded the missile development from zero level and look where it is now!
Sridhar

avk

The descriptor `average` may do justice neither to Abdul Kalam nor to A. Q. Khan.

Dr. Abdul Kalam has always been celebrated as the great motivator. His extraordinary genius has been in being part of teams of scietists often more technically knowledgeable than he and rapidly transforming these teams into groups of inspired hyperachievers. In leadership of scientific community, he is a Vikram Sarabhai (from what I hear of Dr. Sarabhai), but with an even broader, more inspiring social vision.

The great, multifaceted, inspiring visionary may well be the best way to describe Dr. Abdul Kalam.

Re: # 144

I agree with you. My use of `average` is only about his technical skills which are relatively inferior compared to his administrative and leadership skills,

He is an amazing person. No doubt about it. Very very insipirational,


Thanks,

rommel, the author and others:

Thanks for the info on the origin and development of Pak`s nuclear bomb.

Given that the basic design of nuclear bomb is available to almost everyone, I dont suspect nations like India, Israel, Pakistan and others to develop them if there is enough focus and desire. Maybe they are not advanced, but I am sure they would suffice. After all the target is pretty close geographically for all these countries..

So questioning the very existence, as being done by some here, is only wishful thinking and not realistic.

Coming to the issue of the significance of AQ Khan in this endeavour, I am in the camp, who believe that his role is highly overrated and there are a lot more people who deserve the credit. I believe that PAEC deserves the real credit.

The same goes for Abdul Kalam in India. Apart from an efficient administrator, humble human being, a true patriot, a truly gifted and motivating speaker (having had the fortune of listening to him in person) Abdul kalam is an average scientist and the real credit for the Nuclear bomb in India goes to distinguished folks of Indian Atomic energy commission...

But this does not make the recent sham trial of AQ Khan acceptable. I think Pakistan had not proven to be completely responsible in managing the nuclear bomb by attempting to give the technology to N Korea and Libya, but it would be ridiculous to say that AQ Khan is the guilty person. If anyone is guilty, it would be the Army of Pakistan.
If anyone has balls to make someone accountable for this indiscriminate proliferation, they should focus on the Army, not AQ Khan.

Justice is not served in this case,

Thanks,
Avkrishna

#138 by r.a.janjua on December 3, 2005 10:34pm PT


his genius scientists and government begging the u.s. congress for technology they could`nt develop on their own.


Sour grapes? Your military dictator asked for the same deal as was signed with India...

Mr. Khan is not charged with understanding nuclear technology in sixteen days, but with making xerox copies of classified technical documents, and smuggling those xerox copies. There is no clear reason why other scientists in Pakistan could not have worked on the information contained in those copies.

Urs Truly,

Whether AQKhan stole the technology or replicated it back in Pakistan through his own genuis that he obtained in sixteen days at Urenco, or whether he is being eulogized by people as the self-styled father of the bomb, he is not the father of the bomb, let alone the nuclear program. To call him that is outrageously stupid and non-sensical, notwithstanding the volume of propaganda he managed to heap on the nuclear-ignorant people of Pakistan through his paid propaganda writers.

Now, Pakistan`s nuclear program began in 1956 with the establishment of the PAEC. In the 1960s, two important milestones were achieved which provided the technical basis of a basic civilian nuclear program infrastructure, namely, the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH) with its two atomic research reactors, (PARR-1 & 2) and KANUPP. This was done in the tenure of Dr. I.H.Usmani as PAEC Chairman from 1960-71.

The nuclear weapons program was initiated on January 20th, 1972 at the Multan Conference where a nuclear engineer, having specialized in nuclear engineering from the Argonne National Laboratories in the U.S, Mr. Munir Ahmad Khan was appointed head of the nuclear program and PAEC Chairman. Munir had served with distinction as Head of Nuclear Reactor Engineering Division at the IAEA from 1958-1971, being the only Pakistani, and the first Asian to serve on the staff at the IAEA. Munir was involved in the establishment of nuclear facilities for peaceful purposes in all countries at that time under the US. Atoms for Peace Program, and had vast technological, managerial and scientific experience by virtue of his position at the IAEA and had cultivated vast international contacts there. When he was appointed PAEC Chairman, he was the best choice for Pakistan, whereas A.Q.Khan had only completed his PhD in Physcial metallurgy in 1972. He did not have any scientific, research, managerial or technical experience because he was a middle level technician-cum-metallurgist employed by FDO. His sixteen day stint with the centrifuge documents does not qualify him to be the father of the nuclear program, because the program had begun long before his arrival in Pakistan.

A.Q.Khan was not involved in the initiation or establishment of the PAEC or any of its projects.

He was not involved in Giving Pakistan complete mastery over the nuclear fuel cycle, which is the basis of any sustainable nuclear program, which Iran is still struggling with, and AQKhan`s help has not been able to enable Iran complete the fuel cycle. The nuclear fuel cycle is the PAEC`s singular accomplishment under Munir Ahmad Khan.

AQKhan did not start the Kahuta uranium enrichment project. It was started in 1974 by Munir Ahmad Khan with Bashiruddin Mahmood as project incharge of code name project-706 of the PAEC. The PAEC had begun extensive Research and Development with Italian Centrifuge Designs as early as 1975 when the first pilot scale centrifuge plant was successfully run at Sihala. The drawings that A.Q.Khan brought from Urenco were of First generation centrifuge machines, which were so low in efficiency that they could not have produced the required levels of enriched uranium. Therefore his input was only a small portion of the enrichment effort. The PAEC had on its own established a surreptitious nuclear suppliers network in Europe with the brilliant S.A.Butt as the man incharge of procurement who reported directly to Munir Ahmad Khan, who enabled PAEC to acquire and develop the balancing rotors used in centrifuges, the mass spectrometers and the high frequency inverters used to supply power to the centrifuges. Centrifuge is just one link in a long chain of enrichment technology. It is a small part of the enrichment process, let alone the nuclear program as a whole.

Munir Ahmad Khan had acquired maraging steel in 1975-6 worth Rs. 50 million which is used in the development of centrifuges and their cascades.

It was the PAEC that produced the uranium hexafloride gas or UF6 at is plant at D.G.Khan, which is the crucial raw material and Feed for enrichment, without which the centrifuges would be useless. It is this UF6 gas which is enriched to weapon grade through the gas-centrifuges at Kahuta. This plant was begun and completed long before AQKhan came on the scene.

The enriched uranium would be useless without developing a workable nuclear bomb design, its triggerring mechanism and implosion techniques in addition to cold testing and hot testing facilities. The PAEC began work on this in March 1974 and the first bomb design was ready by 1978. AQKhan did not come up with any workable design which also failed cold tests.

Munir Khan conducted the first cold tests on March 11, 1983 and completed the Chaghi test sites by 1980.

Plutonium is another route to nuclear weapons. The PAEC had completed its own reprocessing plant at PINSTECH called New Labs by 1981 which gave Pakistan the ability to produce enough plutonium for atleast one bomb a year. The PAEC conducted over 24 cold tests between 1983 and 1990, during which plutonium weapons may also have been tested.

The Khushab heavy water plutonium production reactor was inititated by Munir Khan in 1985 which is now commissioned and has given Pakistan the ability to produce enough plutonium for many bombs and tritium which is used to boost fission devices. This was despite sanctions and despite the French backstabbing the Chashma contract.

After the Canadians put sanctions on KANUPP in the wake of the Indian test of 1974, the PAEC scientists and engineers developed the spare parts and nuclear fuel for KANUPP indeginously. AQKhan had nothing to do with any of this.

Munir also established the Centre for Nuclear Studies in 1975, before AQKhan came to Pakistan, and CNS provided over 5000 nuclear scientists, engineers to the nuclear program, inclucing KRL,when the world had closed its doors to Pakistani scientists. today CNS is a university called PIEAS.

So when A.Q.Khan had no role in any of the above mentioned achivements, which were all accomplished during Munir Khan`s tenure as PAEC Chairman from 1972-1991, then how is AQKhan the father of the nuclear program? He was never even head of the program, as he never was the PAEC Chairman.


Regards.

Re: # 139 Rommel

As I said earlier, the purpose of this article is not to compare the contribution of different scientists to the development of our nuclear program. I have said it earlier that I would kiss the feet of sweepers who cleaned the streets of KRL; I salute Dr. Munir, Dr. Bashiruddin, Dr. Samar and countless other unsung heroes as well.

But truth of the matter is that Western neo-colonial powers want the head of none other but Dr. AQK on a platter; all the propogandists, eastern or western, slander him and only him not from today but since decades; its the name of AQK who strikes fear in the hearts of infidels, hindus, and other miscelleneous nutjobs; it is the AQK who is the target for slander by the fifth columnists who live among us pretending to be Pakistanis; it is AQK and not someone else who is humilited by this anti-Pakistani and anti-Muslim dictatorial regime. And it is the AQK who has been humiliated by the corrupt and spineless ruling class.

They don`t want some DR. Allahditta, they want AQK. So what does it tell you?

re: 104
the opinions of arabs should not matter to us. baigharat, backstabing little buggers that they are.

re: 102
``What`s your point re Pakistan`s nuclear weapons? (Please be brief and succinct.)``

be brief & succinct after spending so much time on wiki becoming an expert on nuclear physics in general
and nuclear weapons in particular? now that`s asking AlephLull too much. be nice to him - it is hard for AlephLull to see his genius scientists and government begging the u.s. congress for technology they could`nt develop on their own.

re: 77 (hp)

hp, munir ahmed did`nt have a phd (if i remember correctly) - here are a couple of articles on him which
are fairly decent and were published on chowk:

http://www.chowk.com/show_article.cgi?aid=00000573&channel=university%20ave&threshold=1&layout=0&order=0&start=0&end=9&page=1 http://www.chowk.com/show_article.cgi?aid=00003421&channel=civic%20center&threshold=1&layout=0&order=0&start=0&end=9&page=1#32

pakistan atomic energy commission comprised of four members - chairman, member finance, member
weapons and one other title which i can`t remember. when the chairman retired it was almost certain that the
member weapons would become the next chairman. krl and aq khan were involved with uranium enrichment
initially but later were competing with paec on the weapons design - a competition that they lost - and the paec
member weapons at that time was samar mubarakmand. if anyone was paying attention at that time, he/she
would have noticed samar mubarakmand`s irritation at aq khan stealing his show. aq khan on the other hand
thrives on taking credit for things he did`nt do.

re: 71

urstruly, whether he stole the technology or not, does`nt matter - he probably did`nt -
and you are right - it is hard to believe that he ran that circus without the knowledge of people in power.
since pakistan is not a signatory to npt, what he did was not criminal, it was just plain stupid.

Re: # 138

r.a.janjua

``What`s your point re Pakistan`s nuclear weapons? (Please be brief and succinct.)...that`s asking AlephLull too much.``

This self-proclaimed genius, aptly named Anull, runs when cornered. I expected that from him. However, in a moment of candor he declared in his post #99: ``The brief answer is that I have absolutely no idea.``

re:#134 by faisaluno
While Pak may have acquired nuclear technology by ``hook or crook``, that technology is not considered safe in Paki hands. Pak has shown that it is an indiscriminate proliferator. It has had dealings with N.Korea, Iran, Libya. Mushy`s argument that it was all done by one single person A.Q.Khan and that he or the Army had no personal knowledge of it does not cut ice with the strategic thinkers. Mushy is needed today, so he is being tolerated.
However, there is real fear that Pak`s nuclear arms may fall into wrong hands once Mushy goes away (or is eliminated) and a terrorist takes over, as the following article implies:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_7-10-2004_pg7_6
(A new report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) on nuclear terrorism said, “The fear regarding Pakistan is that some members of the armed forces might covertly give a weapon to terrorists or that, if President Musharraf were overthrown, an Islamic fundamentalist government or a state of chaos in Pakistan might enable terrorists to obtain a weapon.” While, the report concedes, it would be difficult for terrorists to mount a nuclear attack on a US city, such an attack is plausible and would have catastrophic consequences, in one scenario killing over a half-million people and causing damage of over $1 trillion. “Terrorists or rogue states might acquire a nuclear weapon in several ways. The nations of greatest concern as potential sources of weapons or fissile materials are widely thought to be Russia and Pakistan.”)
In such a scenario, contingency plans are in place to take over the nuclear reactors in Pak by a combined US-Israeli commando units that have trained for this eventuality for sometime now. US is already there in Pak, so this possibility is very real. Pak is safe as long as Mushy boy is in control and does US tells him to do.
Sridhar

rsridhar:

Re: # 135

There is another strong opinion in US establishment. Just like Pakistan helped the USA against USSR in Afghanistan leading to its division, it now wants Pakistan in the same way against Iran. Furthermore, USA and Israel want to have a friendly relationship with Pakistan so that in future Pakistan could also be used to assist the USA to disintegrate India. The disintegration of India is an issue that has been discussed historically in the US congress. The US-India military exercises were also undertaken so that US could familiarise itself with Indian capabilities for a possible showdown in future. Previously conspicuous by their absence in India, American CIA is firmly entrenched in there.

There are two questions that you should ask yourself:

1. Why would the USA like to help India become a superpower knowing fully well that it is going to be another competitor (non-white this time) like China, France and Russia can be for scarce resources.

2. Optimistically speaking, if USA wants to develop India as a check against China, then certainly it would like to have Pakistan as a check against India. Surely, the US has also noticed the political weight Pakistan carries through the role that we played in the reformation of the UN through the support of countries that we did not have any relations with till now, the support that we enjoy in the Muslim countries, in the ASEAN, etc. Even Australia that had no relations with us till now has executed trade agrements because of the minerals they found Kashmiri soil exposed during the recent earthquake.

Therefore, by posting such posts as # 135, you can continue to masterb#te with pleasant self satisfying thoughts, I will seriously advise you that doctors have warned that during the process of mas****ation, one has a very high probability of having a heart failure, especially in the older age. I would suggest you caution.

people who played a role in pak`s nuclear program deserve our thanks because the capability to successfully deter external aggression was necessary for pak`s progress. and since that has now been achieved, its time to move on, to shift focus to other important areas for a man cannot live by security alone. man also needs food, water, shelter, health care, job etc for survival. by this measurement, the performance of pakistanis has been well below par especially when measured against that achieved by people in s.e. asia.

there are signs however that things are turning around on the economic front and people driving the turn around deserve the same recognition accorded to nuclear scientists. in fact i would argue that on a day-to-day basis, the actions of governor of state bank of pak (sbp) have a far more impact on the lives of ordinary pakistanis than the work of nuclear scientists. in this respect, the recently retired governor of sbp has done an absolutely stellar job. check out the performance of rupee under his tenure vs the performance of the rupee in the 1st six years of decade of democracy - from 1990 to 1999.

pkr under ishrat hussain. note that it takes about two years for the impact of policy to filter through:



pkr under decade of democracy. note that pkr had lost 60% of its value in the first 6 years of the last decade although real damage came much later. in comparison rupee lost around 7-8% of its value this decade. however all the depreciation that took place this decade was in the first two years.



there is also some more good news ahead. the new governor of sbp also has a stellar reputation and will bring a no nonsense approach to her job. she is also like qadeer khan, a true son of the soil who made her reputation abroad. she is also a khatoon although this is immaterial in my opinion. she can howver be a good role model provided she gets due attention from the media like qadeer khan has received.

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/

ISLAMABAD: For the first time in country`s history, a woman economist, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, with entire experience of development banking was appointed Governor State Bank of Pakistan for a three-year term.

...She has been involved in the restructuring process of banks in the East Asian economies and has interacted regularly with Bank of International Settlement on Basel Standards. Dr Akhtar worked with the World Bank for 10 years, before joining Asian Development Bank in 1990, where she was holding the top position, overseeing Bank`s operations in a number of countries.

...She hails form rural Sindh and is the first woman to be appointed Governor State Bank of Pakistan, the statement added.

#88 Malik

Yes it is true that what really matters is that Pakisatn has what 191 countries of the world don`t. But the matter is not that simple. The truth of the matter is that there is an ideological war underway. It is a war between the Islam, which has emerged as the last hope for mankind to establish a rule of equality and justice among nations and on the other side is the kuffar which thrives on the inequity and injustice in the world. Propaganda is an essential part of this war. One essential part of this prapaganda is to discredit the icons and ideals of each other. While truth is on our side, as their lies expose themselves by no one else but by their own people everyday, it is important that we stick to the truth. This is our strength that they can never take away. Someone has to tell that truth because it is important to boost morale in our ranks. That is the reason this article was written.

#130 by faisaluno on December 3, 2005 7:11am PT

You mean diseases like congo haemorrhagic fever?

when are indians going to start acting like a civilised nation? the thread of them spreading disease is pretty serious.

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:J7AtyBpPWOQJ:www.mid-day.com/columns/dilip_dsouza/2005/november/123876.htm+%22Thinking+out+of+the+pot%22&hl=en

Ajit Pawar has got it right. We have a big problem in this country that he has decided to tackle: something over two-thirds of us Indians have no access to reasonable sanitation.

This is a public hygiene issue, because what it means is that two-thirds of us lack toilets in our home