Iran at the Crossroads – Bombs or Butter?

Romair writes, ``The USA is stuck deep in Iraq. ... It has been defeated military by the Iraqi resistance.``

Yes, we have all seen the photos of General George Casey surrendering to Abu Musab Al Zarqawi on board battleship Al Iraqiyah.
*****

“I have always wondered why the USA just doesn`t break off ties or pressurize the Middle East dictators with whom it has excellent relations.”

Why doesn’t Pakistan’s military ruled government break off ties with Middle Eastern monarchs? Ever heard of the saying, “Practice what you preach” ? Or does that apply to others but not to you?
*****

“Iran has a democracy that is decades ahead of all the allies US supports in the Middle East.”

How can the pot be decades ahead of the kettles ? Calling Iran a democracy is like calling Pakistan an Islamic Republic.

Sincerely
O_M

#43 by Romair on March 6, 2005 5:56pm PT


I have always wondered why the USA just doesn`t break off ties or pressurize the Middle East dictators with whom it has excellent relations.


We could do that with mushy too, but we prefer dealing with a pliable dictator who`ll use his air force and army against his own people for our interests...Don`t think we could do that with a democratically elected government...


The local elections in Saudi were a farce. And the provisions made in Egypt are a farce also.


So was the referendum in Pakistan...Even Saddam`s going ``oh come on mush..98%!!..you`re frikking kidding me..``



Everywhere in the Middle East where elections are held, an anti-US maulvi govt. will get elected. I


Yup...just like the MMA, allies of the taliban, rule over half of Pakistani provinces...that`s a risk we run...but that`s why we require a pliable dictator...

I have always wondered why the USA just doesn`t break off ties or pressurize the Middle East dictators with whom it has excellent relations. What is stopping the USA from doing that. Its much easier than spending 80 billion dollars a year, occupying Iraq. Why not do the following:

- Break the Free Trade Agreement with Jordan and tell the King he is on his own, until he abdicates and holds elections. Stop inviting him to the USA, and tell him that the USA is going to blame him for the Zarqawis of the world, and will not do anything if Israel crosses from the West Bank into Jordan........

- Break all ties with Husni Mubarak. Tell him he is not going to be the second highest recepient of US aid (after Israel) - a status he has been enjoying for a long time. And USA will not open up its markets to him, until he steps down or at least holds elections, in a manner, where he doesn`t keep winning for twenty-four years straight......

- Tell the Al-Sabah family of Kuwait that the USA made a mistake by keeping them in safety in the Washington Sheraton when the ran away from Kuwait, under a threat from Saddam. And that it made an even bigger mistake by re-installing them on the Kuwait throne, after defeating Saddam. Instead of holding elections in Kuwait, after the first Gulf War. If they don`t hold elections, the USA will let Iraq or Iran or anyone else invade Kuwait, as and when they want. And once again, no aid or military equipment for Kuwait........

- Tell the shiekhs and kings of UAE that they should hold immediate elections. If they don`t they will not get US umbrella of protection from Iran or anyone else. No US company like Microsoft will be allowed to invest in UAE, and they will not get any spare parts for the large airline that they are planning........

- And most of all tell the royal family of Saudi Arabia that they have been ex-communicated. Abdullah will not be welcomed at the Crawford Ranch, and his wishes to not have any female Air Traffic Controllers control his 747 when he flies to USA will never be honored again. The USA will not sell a single spare part for the AWACS, F-15s and any other military hardware that the Saudis have piled up. And all US advisors will vacate Saudi Arabia..........Unless of course, they at least let women drive.........

So on and so forth................

Iran has a democracy that is decades ahead of all the allies US supports in the Middle East. In fact, the USA has never had good relations with any country in that area, that had or has a democracy. At the moment there are only two of them that hold elections. Palestine and Iran, and both are regularly on the USA hit list...........

The above is a very easy way to introduce democracy, if that is the real purpose. All the above-mentioend kingdoms and dictators cannot survie a month without US backing. They will fall quicker than the Shah of Iran.............Why bomb Iraq into smithereens and kill 100,000 people and then threaten Iran. Why not start from the countries which have pro-US dictators, all of whom owe their survival to the Americans..............

The local elections in Saudi were a farce. And the provisions made in Egypt are a farce also. Hardly anyone participated in the Saudi elections (women can`t vote). And in Egypt, the most popular oppostion politician was jailed, and Mubarak still decides who can run and who cannot...........Even the Iraqi elections were forced by Sistani. It is well documented by US govt. sources themlseves, (and Time magazine etc.) that the USA tried its best to not hold elections in January. It tried all the tricks in the book, until Sistani put tens of thousands of Shias in the streets, threatening to join the resistance movement...........

America faces an odd dilema. Everywhere in the Middle East where elections are held, an anti-US maulvi govt. will get elected. In Iraq it has happened (the current President of Iraq, is the head of the Dawa party, which was in exile in Iran and was practically declared a terrorist organization, at one point by the USA, due to its alleged ties with Hezbollah). In Iran it already happened at the fall of the Shah. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood type groups will win. In Jordan, very anti-Israel, very pro-Palestine govt. will get elected, which will break its treaties with Israel. In Saudi Arabia, Osama would defeat Bush in an election. And would perhaps beat the royal family also (though Abdullah is quite popular, specifically because of some of his anti-US stances). In Algeria, mauvlis already won, and were not allowed to take power, thereby plunging Algeria into violence. In Turkey, a religious govt. won, which did not allow the USA to use its soil to invade Iraq, since over 90% of Turks were against the war. In Kuwait and UAE, there is a chance that maulvis will not win, but they are too tiny to do much.......

If Saudi Arabia is toppled, more than 40% of the world`s oil (Iran, Iraq, Saudi) will be under the direct control of maulvis and Ayatollahs...........It will interesting to see how the USA handles that...........

There was, after all, a reason that seasoned US strategists, of every US govt., over many decades believed in supporting pro-US dictators in the Middle East. They weren`t stupid. They were some of the smartest guys in the USA. They knew that elections in the area would result in anti-US govts. which would not allow easy access to oil. And it might bring in maulvis to power.............Those chickens have now come home to roost............If the USA sticks with the pro-US dictators, it will breed more OBLs, who will get even more popular. If it forces them out of power, by means mentioned above, it will end up with anti-US govts. replacing the pro-US dictators..........Damned if you do, damned if you don`t...........

There is, of course, a simpler solution. Force Israel to recognize Palestine within 67 borders. The Arab league has accepted this, as have Palestinians. Israel will still own a large majority of the land they never had before 47.....and a larger chunk than what the UN gave to them in 47............and the catalyst for US-Arab conflict will die down............After that Americans can buy cheap oil from Arab kings and Arabs can get dollars and ipods from the USA..........a perfectly happy relationship..............

SR,

............ i am just pointing out that the abduls of the world might be slow learners, but after a while they begin to get it - but you have to work at it ........... that`s all .......... they still have a long long way to go and bush has a lot of work to do - that`s why he needs four (or eight) more years ......... and i will admit it is still not a given and a lot of unpredictable things can happen ......... but we need to stay the course

Re: # 40

Vah subhaanal-Lah hamid sahib, what a gem you`ve found to support your assertions. Let`s see, this is the gist of your example:

Muslim opinion of America is improving … says an opinion poll … by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation. ... Based on a survey conducted from Feb 1 to 6 of 1,200 adults in Indonesia… Confidence in Osama bin Laden had dropped… This is a major blow to Al Qaeda and other terrorists,`` the poll said. ... American response to tsunami had inspired good feelings. The poll found that 65pc had a more favourable view towards the United States in the aftermath of tsunami, … ``...we may be on the verge of turning the corner in this region,`` said Ken Ballen, president of the Washington-based Terror Free Tomorrow, which had sponsored the poll. ...A 2003 British Broadcasting Corp poll of Indonesians had found that … the US was `more dangerous` than Al Qaeda.

If Urstruly or Romair had come up with a similarly rediculous reference to support one of their arguments, you would have had them for lunch, and rightly so. But here you fail to see the absurdness of your own ``leap of faith``... This is like quoting some Raiwind based group that sponsors a mickey mouse poll in Siberia and then concludes that Islam is hated less this year compared to the Russian mafia than it was last year. How utterly irrelevent...

And, my god(s), has it come to this? Must we now resort to a competition against the reputation of a murderous psychopathic fugitive in order to feel good about the bastion of freedom? It is sad to have to stoop this low. Such obssession with a lunatic hiding in mountain caves... ?? This is no different than pathetic Pakis trying to feel good about themselves by saying that Rawandan tutsi killers are less popular among the slum dwellers of London`s East End.

...SR

slow learners ......

........ it is amazing how people are changing their silly tune ...........george bush, as i predicted, will go down in history as the saviour of mankind (particularly the muslim variety)

changingtunes

........ as recent events in egypt, lebanon and syria suggest the ummites might be slow learners, but they are getting the message ............. the toppling of the mullahs in tehran will speed up the process .........

......... i propose a constitutional amendment to let bush run for a third term, and a fourth, if necessary ........... the world needs leadership

WARNING ALERT from WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION & CENTERS for DISEASE CONTROL

The World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control in Atlnta, Georgia, have issued an unprecedented joint warning about the dangers of a new virulent strain of a sexually transmitted disease. This disease is contracted through dangerous and high risk behavior. The disease is called Gonorrhea Lectim (pronounced ``gonna re-elect him``).

Many victims have contracted it after having been screwed for the past 4 years, in spite of having taken measures to protect themselves from this especially troublesome disease.

Cognitive sequellae of individuals infected with Gonorrhea Lectim include, but are not limited to:

Anti-social personality disorder traits; delusions of grandeur with a distinct messianic flavor; chronic mangling of the English language; extreme cognitive dissonance; inability to incorporate new information; pronounced xenophobia; inability to accept responsibility for actions; exceptional cowardice masked by acts of misplaced bravado; uncontrolled facial smirking; ignorance of geography and history; tendencies toward creating evangelical theocracies; and a strong propensity for categorical, all-or nothing behavior.

The disease is sweeping Washington. Naturalists and epidemiologists are amazed and baffled that this malignant disease originated only a few years ago in a Texas Bush.

Re: US $ -- Romair Please refer to FOMC-minutes iLog for January 19, 2005

SR-- Where is the US dollar heading short term and long term with respect to the Canadian dollar? You had earlier mentioned that it would stabilize between 80-82 cents. And that is where it has stabilized, after going up to around 86.

When I moved to Canada, dollar was at a very low 62 cents. Just around three years or so ago. The cost of living in Toronto was 1/3rd that of San Francisco. So if you made the same salary in Canadian dollars as you did in US, you broke almost even. Housing prices in Toronto were, however, much lower, in real terms, i.e. a Can$ 400,000 house would be around US 600,000 or more. Not US 400,000. So in a sense, you were better off in Toronto if you made the same salary in Canadian dollars.

Now, the ratio has turned on its head, in favor of Canadian salaries. The guy making the same salary in Canadian dollars is wealthier, since it is worth more in US dollars. Specially if he owns a home, which he bought when the Canadian dollar was 65 cents. This is the situation many of us are in...........Our standard of living actually went up after moving out of the USA.....when one would think, they would go down, due to lower salaries........and lower dollar value.........

So I now want to dump all my US assets completely. I sold my house in USA but kept the money in US dollars. Should have converted and dumped them when the dollar was at 70 cents. But who knew? Will it go down to 75 cents? That is what I am waiting for?

And there is talk of long term 1-1 between US and Canadian dollar. That did happen before, as well. Any chance? If that is the case, then perhaps I need to dump all my IRA stuff also...........Could the US doomsday scenario you are describing, have the ratio go beyond 1-1 in favor of Canadian dollar?..........Also if the housing market in USA crashes, will the crash flow into Canada? People have been talking of Toronto housing market crashing, for two years, but it continues to boom. Maybe because there are around 150,000 or more immigrants coming in here every year, to this city.......I have never seen the amount of construction of apts, that I am seeing in the Toronto area, anywhere in my life........Not even in Silicon Valley in the height of the .com boom.......

P.S. The check is in the mail.........And a free dinner on me, if you are ever in Begumpura (Pakistani name for suburbs of Toronto)......assuming your figures come out correct, of course.......Otherwise, you will have to pay for your own dinner.............

hamidm mian #36: `` i really think you should read arjun`s posts to you``

Genuis love company.......

I had a strange feeling that, sooner or later, you and arjun_m, would discover each other as soul mates. You two have a lot in common (I say this seriouly). Two`s company. Three`s a crowd. So I don`t want to be the, ``kabab mein haddi,`` between you two......

And if I played any part in bringing you two togther, then I think I have done my good deed for the day...........

I think you have finally discovered your core calling.............Jerry Fallwell and arjun_m........Best of luck!!!

romair,

......... i really think you should read arjun`s posts to you - it will lead to introspection and reform ........

Re: # 32

i should have guessed ............. crg is a kook tank made up of america-hating loonies and cranks based out of montreal, canada !......... french and canadian - a double whammy!

these ``scholars`` lie awake at night worrying about the evils of globalization ......... they claim that CRG `` is an independent research and media group of progressive writers, scholars and activists committed to curbing the tide of ``globalisation`` and ``disarming`` the New World Order`` and ``the Centre`s objective is to unveil the workings of the New World Order``

.......... give me a break! .........next thing you know we will be quoting sean penn and the dixie chicks !

Re: # 32

......... another conspiracy theory is born !

Mr. Gill,
Why have Arabs, and now Muslims, made such a bete noire out of Israel? At every step of the way from the 1940s to 2000, the Arabs could have accepted Israel and received decreasingly more land from a settlement. It is amazing how the Arabs desperately want a settlement that Israel was offering just before the previous altercation. Some people never learn.

``Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.`` - James Madison

Madison’s words of wisdom should be carefully considered by America.

The rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground in Iraq portends an even direr situation for American soldiers and the People of the world community - should the Bush administration pursue their strategy regarding Iran. Current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran extend beyond the publicly stated concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions, and likely include a proposed Iranian ``petroeuro system`` for oil trade. Similar to the Iraq war, upcoming operations against Iran relate to the macroeconomics of the `petrodollar recycling’ and the unpublicized but real challenge to U.S. dollar supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.

It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat from Saddam’s long-gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining control over Iraq’s hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so maintaining the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market. Throughout 2004 statements by former administration insiders revealed that the Bush/Cheney administration entered into office with the intention of toppling Saddam Hussein. Indeed, the neoconservative strategy of installing a pro-U.S. puppet in Baghdad along with multiple U.S. military bases was partly designed to thwart further momentum within OPEC towards a ``petroeuro.`` However, subsequent events show this strategy to be fundamentally flawed, with Iran moving forward towards a petroeuro system for international oil trades, while Russia discusses this option.

The Iranians are about to commit an ``offense`` far greater than Saddam Hussein`s conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000.

In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York`s NYMEX and London`s IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-based international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels, Tehran`s objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on US interests in the oil market.

‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ was a war designed to install a pro-U.S. puppet in Iraq, establish multiple U.S military bases before the onset of Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.

The Bush administration could undertake a desperate military strategy to thwart Iran`s nuclear ambitions while simultaneously attempting to prevent the Iranian oil Bourse from initiating a petroeuro system for international oil trades. The later would require forced ``regime change`` and the U.S. occupation of Iran.

Objectively speaking, the post-war Iraq has clearly shown that such policies will impose a catastrophically high cost. (Please see http://costofwar.com)

Alternatively, perhaps a more enlightened U.S. administration could undertake multilateral negotiations with the EU and OPEC regarding a dual oil-currency system, in conjunction with global monetary reform. Either way, U.S. policy makers will soon face two difficult choices: monetary compromise or continued petrodollar warfare.

(This response is an edited and slightly altered excerpt from William Clark`s long essay of October 27, 2004 titled The Real Reasons Why Iran Is The Next Target: The Emerging Euro-Denominated International Oil Marker )

#29 by paindupastry on March 2, 2005 11:39am PT


American military might compared to the klashenkov carrying afghans is like a giant squashing an ant. doesnt prove a giant very smart to be doing that though


Capt Clueless should have thought of that before predicting that the American forces would have a tough time against the taliban/al-qeada...

gist of the matter is that Iran is going to get a whipping before the end of year. Iranians must decide on the bomb shelter they will use once the bombs start falling. So all this discussion of ``carrot`` and ``stick`` is meaningless since soon there will be only stick and that too a pretty big one.

Oh yes, there will be anti-war marches all over the world.