Telecom Dreams Sold Dirt Cheap

Re: Tahmed321

I used the Mac to PC switch as an example -- the actual reasons lie in (a) the massive disruption to IRS` operations that will result from any technology upgrades, and (b) the complete compartmentalization that existed between the IT shop and the business

shammi #34 I suspect it was more than Mac to PC switch that caused the problems. The Air Traffic Control system also had a similar cost of hundreds of millions (or maybe billions) of $ over the years before someone decided to cut and start again. In the meantime, I think the existing infrastructure dates to the prehistoric era (going as far back as the 1960`s I think). Implementing computer systems is I think a much more complex undertaking than most people (particularly the business managers) are aware.

Re: Tahmed321

Actually, the IRS blew more than $4bn when the attempted to modernize their systems the last time. Amongst several problems, one is that the switching costs for computer technology are very high (getting Mac users to use the PC is difficult). Nevertheless, society bears such expenditures, because the improvements in productivity are higher still.

I think the IRS blew a huge amount ($100 m. is the round number I have heard) on false starts before finally getting somewhere. I guess they found God after that, setting the bar at Level 4 as you say. I recall about 5 years ago they blew $100m. trying to computerize the London Stock Exchange. The whole effort was scrapped - the reasons to have something to do with lack of user involvement (they were building an ``invisible palace``, one of the London newspapers reported back then). Although this is not an issue at this time in the press, I fear that investments in IT by the governments in poor countries may be incurring much waste due to poorly conceived projects, although probably at not such large amounts as happens in the rich countries. And the improvements with successful efforts (e.g. the reduction in elapsed time for processing civil cases in Karnatka from 9 years to 15 minutes in certain cases, bringing of land records within control) will in the long run definitely outweigh the losses due to unsuccessful ones.

Re: Tahmed321

The US govt. does require CMM certification for several of its agencies. Interestingly, SEI was largely funded by DoD, and the need to maintain software quality in defense systems. Also, I know for a fact that the IRS requires atleast a level 4 from its contractors. All in all, many agencies do require CMM certification, and in fact, I think that the govt. does as good as, if not a better job of maintaining processes for software quality than many dotcom startups (for whom time to market was everything) and even Microsoft (notice the number of bugs in its early versions of almost every product!)

Ciao!

shammi #30 Looks like this emphasis on quality processes is picking up and (at least in the US) the number of ISO 9000 certifications have been increasing over the past 10-15 years quite rapidly. It would be interesting to see the impact of introducing this certification where it is most needed - in the public sector. I am surprised it has not already been done. On SEI CMM, I understand that the US government requires Level 2 at least (where software development becomes a defined process) for firms to qualify bid for government contracts. If that is correct (and I am not 100% sure), then there must be some kind of independant evaluation for CMM ratings, at least in the US.

Re: Tahmed321 #29

The SEI CMM ratings are self-administered (ie. no independent 3rd party audits), and are largely self-policed. This is not to say that all SEI CMM Level 5 Indian firms are cheating, but the bar is not quite as high as ISO 9001 certification which does require an independent 3rd party audit. However, the mere fact that a firm is making an effort to attain high CMM rating is significant. That said, Indian companies do have a tremendous cost advantage -- an unamed US-based govt. contractor (CMM level 4) charges typically $150 to $200/hour for a senior developer`s labor, while Infosys (CMM level 5) charges $60/hour.

shammi #28 Thanks for the url for the article on Bangalore, which I read with interest. A couple of observations:

The article mentions 26 firms worldwide (13 in India) that have achieved Level 5 status in the SEI CMM. I recall about three years ago there were only 4, with at least one (the Motorola team) in India. I have not followed developments on the CMM lately, but looks like it is pretty hard to get. The more general ISO 9000 ``certification`` seems to be much more widely given out.

Also, Economist.com has a special section on the Indian economy this time, and is generally quite upbeat and also provides some interesting insights.

Re: Tahmed321 #22 and the Michigan/VW investment story

Unfortunately, many S. Asian governments have paid only lip service to outside direct investments (indicating that they want them, but not showing any willingness to walk the talk by changing tax policy, eliminating corruption, etc)

Here is an attempt by Bangalore to invite foreign direct investment during the current technology slowdown:

``Bangalore Fishes in Troubled U.S. Tech Waters``

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010607/tc/tech_india_city_dc_1.html

Zakk #23 You are right that it is kind of silly for PTCL to form a joint venture to compete with itself. It is exactly this kind of analysis backed by sound figures that should be the subject of public examination and debate. I understand that PTCL does have some powerful critics within the government as well as outside. So all hope is not lost in getting this ``nervous system`` of Pakistan placed within a sound environment that ensures that Pakistan can reap the full benefits of the massive techological and economic changes taking place in the world today.

gfm, maia, Shakir: one would think that telecomm would be the most exciting thing today. What is happening in telecomm represents something of epochal significance for all mankind. It excites the brightest minds across the world, and events are taking place at a high speed today. Too bad we dont have more interest on the subject on chowk.

And gfm, I agree with you. I dont accept maia`s defence namely that ``at least he wrote something``, well-intentioned though it was. Your point on the importance of maintaining certain minimum standards of professionalism in journalism, given the importance of this profession, is very well made. Shakir, I hope you will not just see gfm and my posts as mere negative criticism, but as brotherly advice that you should seriously reflect upon.

to maia,

sorry to sound patronizing but Maia, it is important to understand the power of journalism and what it takes to reach the ever evasive totality of truth -

Just reiterating my earlier reply to the author:

``Your article is well written and we do need more people like you in Pakistan uncovering the truth and doing investigative journalism. I have immense respect for people like you who are at least doing their best and actually making a change in their country

But it is absolutely essential that all facts are taken into account before insinuations are made. Good lives of people can be ruined with the touch of a pen. The article is merely a skeleton that needs more data, logic and conclusive proof to back up its accusations``

Big yourself up Shakir - I for one was most impressed by your piece and think that we need more journalists like you who care about exposing the dirt on our fat cat brothers in the Land of the Pure.

As for gfm and tahmed`s whinging about the ethics of journalism, why dont y`all write some articles of your own before dissing the efforts of others and questioning their credibility? Your pontification is passe and rather tired so get over it!

And finally, I look forward to reading more from you on Chowk Mr. Husain....

Hmm Question ..as I understand it ..PTCL has a monopoly uptill 2001 or is it 2002?The (wrong concept) behind this monopoly according to the `96 sct as I understand it was to ensure PTCL`s viability when it was privatised .Whats the concept behind allowing competition ..and that to with yourself?? They couldve broken up PTCL and allow different component to compete ..I doubt few have done anything as wierd as the ACL deal though .Competition is a must ..but thsi reeks of bureacratic ineptness .

In all of this I gotta ask ..whats the Pakistan Telecomunications authority position in all this .Bieng another fine specimen of a govt oversight reulatory authrity if it saw something it should have acted ?

gfm #20 Good job in providing Mr. Mughal`s phone number to Mr. Shakir so he can listen to a different point of view than that of PTCL bureaucrats. :-)

I remember many years ago I took a job interview with the state government of Michigan at our university placement office. The interviewer from the state government posed the following question: ``Suppose you are working for the Michigan state government and VW applies for building an auto plant in Michigan. How would you handle it?`` Having just spent an year training with the Pakistan civil service, my (very poor) response was: I would reject it, since if there were any good investment opportunities they should be given to Michigan firms like GM or Ford. The interviewer gently informed me that the correct answer would be to give them a big welcome since the more investors there are, the more competition there is, the better off the people of Michigan would be.

I have reflected on that interview a number of times in the intervening years, and realize the wisdom behind the interviewer`s viewpoint. Here are some illustrations:

(a) Even an advanced country like Germany was lagging behind in the telecom (and in IT generally) due to a slow-moving Deutsche Telecomm. Then Deutsche Telecomm was privatized. And now things are a lot different and DT is busy expanding as I understand it (having recently completed the very public purchase of a key US tech firm, Voicestream). (b) Another example: the reason Finland is the world leader in wireless telephones is that in the 1930`s they privatized their radio stations and Finland had 40 private stations and has remained very dynamic in this field.

(c) Closer home, in a different sector, the commercial banking sector of Pakistan was a progressive and thriving sector until Bhutto killed the goose that laid the golden eggs by nationalizing it. Trying to undo that, as with the Muslim Commercial Bank is a long and painful process (but well worth it, since MCB I understand is doing much better after privatization).

Shakir sahib`s viewpoint (never mind the lack of figures and all that you and I have already pointed out to him) reminds me of the same inward looking mentality that infect Pakistan (and indeed most third world country).

I agree that one needs to make sure that we need a good regulatory framework along with privatization, but I dont think the Pakistani civil service can do it, given its current mindset and incentives structure. They are trying to fix that by improving government pay scales, so let us see.

shakir #19 You write ``As for doing my homework, I think I did more than enough. ``

I took the trouble of explaining my statement concerning your homework. You ignore my explanations, and simply reject what I was trying to get through to you. Such arbitrary pronouncements can be expected from a mullah or a military despot, but falls short of the level of self-confidence and professionalism one would expect from a journalist. One can hardly expect an intelligent discussion based on this attitude.