Why the Indian Media Got It Wrong

It would be wrong to say that rural India saw no deleopment under the NDA government. There is certainly an improvement from five years ago. But two things must be noted. Development in urban areas is faster to implement than development in rural areas. And secondly, that even though there has been surprising growth in development, both in rural as well as urban areas, in a lot of places, this growth has not kept us with the growth in expectations.

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This article as many seems to assume that the bjp lost mostly in the villages. That is factually incorrect. Most large metropolis voted against bjp (Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ahmedabad.. you get the idea). In fact the difference of -40 odd seats for bjp as compared to the previous parliament came mostly from loss in these metros, nothing at all to do with villages (villages in rajastan, mp, more than 1/2 maharashtra etc all voted bjp). Andhra was never bjp before, it is not bjp now.

Considering the article is on a factually incorect premise, it is hard to discuss.

Re: #19

Most surveys were trying to just justify what was already a prevailing notion (that BJP was going to win).

True, surveys should not try to tailor data to notions, though tailoring raw data to notions is probably easier than thoroughly analysing it without having any preconceived ideas.

Any model for predicting election results also needs to analyse historical data e.g. if a certain party has been retaining a certain constituency for the last 50 years, then it would take quite a lot to remove it from there, any pro or anti wave for this party notwithstanding. I know this is an example of oversimplification but the genaral idea is that considering historical data helps.

The Election Commission of India website provides the vote share of major parties, all constituencies, Lok sabha and Assembly elections, 1977 onwards at

http://www.eci.gov.in/ElectionAnalysis/ElectionAnalysis_fs.htm

Re: #24

with a Muslim President, a Sikh Prime Minister and of all things -- a Catholic Nari Kingmaker --

You forgot to mention the outgoing Defence Minister (a Christian), the outgoing Attorney General (a Parsi)

to `rule over 800 million proud Hindus`

The idea of `rule` happens to be a little different in India compared to that prevelant in the country on its western border. `Rule` in India means that of a democratic kind, you can also call it self-determination, it is something that people from the state of Jammu and Kashmir, of the Indian Union, also enjoy, if you didn`t already know that :)

judging by the input from the hindu interactors here now I am confident that my assessment of Indian media as a chutiya media, which is only good at promoting anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistan hatered among masses, was correct.

Atal ji thinks it was `complacency` that did him in -- not the Hindutva....

well too much of a sweet thing like Hindutva Pride -- may get you a Debilitating Disease of Political Diabetes.... with a Muslim President, a Sikh Prime Minister and of all things -- a Catholic Nari Kingmaker -- to `rule over 800 million proud Hindus` --

(well at least it will not be a `foreign rule` over the Hindutva `Freedom Fighters`)....

anyway.....beware Advani ji.......time to cut back carb....not eat more sugar...

You said: ``Let us not forget that the Agencies that do these surveys are from Urban areas with an urban bias.``

The job of statstician is to reduce the bias of data they are collecting. I have never heard that a statstics adding his own i.e. urban bias. If thats the case then the western countries taking surveys in developing countries will have their own ``developed`` bias.

You said: ``It was largely assumed that BJP was going to win somehow. This bias must have crept into the survey. ``

The media is still has a long way to go in their reporting capabilities and predicting polls is still a nascent subject in which the owners of papers might be influencing. (This is my bias ;) ). There is a lot for the current media to improve their quality.

You said: ``Most surveys were trying to just justify what was already a prevailing notion ``

The job of the survey is not to justify anything. It is suppose to find current notions or conditions.

Finally, the media is very immature even though there might be big shot journalist. It has a long way to go for improving its quality of reporting and poll predications.

Hhey AssGand

Whassup? :)

``Hinduism is a secular religion.``

ROTFL.

This is really a gem from India. In fact this is a good example of ``one-line-jokes.``

I think Indians are trying to to re-define the term ``secular`` according to conditions in India.

re:#15 by Ashutosh_Gandhi
You bring up an interesting point.
Sample size also determines the outcome of the result.
I think the sample size taken for these poll surveys was flawed everytime. It was not a representative sample. Let us not forget that the Agencies that do these surveys are from Urban areas with an urban bias. Few have gone into the interior of India, the villages, and tried to find out which way the wind was blowing.
There is another thing.
It was largely assumed that BJP was going to win somehow. This bias must have crept into the survey. Most surveys were trying to just justify what was already a prevailing notion (that BJP was going to win).
Perhaps a statistician in Chowk can help.
Sridhar

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agree with #17 on the mediocrity ,hyperbole and lack of substance in the english press.I am not sure what the solution to that is.I guess one has to passionate about one`s job
,rather than coasting along,going thru the motions.

i admit my error ... i should have seen ur profile throughly ... SORRY!

Indian media, like most other public institutions in India, is mediocre and extremely prone to hyperboles - just like Indian democracy, secularism and other much-vaunted items. It`s all in form and scale - but no substance.

These folks crawled during Indira dictatorship, pay servility to the dynasties at a drop of a hat. They have been part and parcel of the rotten backward ideology that has kept has India in bondage of poverty and mediocrity.

they got it wrong before election - they got it wrong after the election too. 27% vote and 145 seats is touted as a ``mandate`` for woman who didn`t even declare herself as PM candidate before election. Commies and criminals are being touted as messiahs for poor - to bring in reform with ``human face``.

These folks learn nothing.

Has anyone thought that the Indian media does not use correct statistical methods for predictions and are not a bit scientific? The gujarat assembly polls was one of the examples where the media (TOI) got it completely wrong. The reason: the pollsters group the undecided in the category of people favouring Congress.