A Case Against Kalabagh Dam

Kalabagh Dam Project would play very important role by way of:-
a. Replacing storage lost by sedimentation in existing reservoirs at Mangala, Chashma and Tarbala (estimated about 3 MAF by the year 2000).

b. Providing additional storage to meet existing water shortages during early Kharif sowing period of April-June (particularly critical for cotton crop in Sindh).

c. Providing effective regulation of Indus river to meet additional Kharif allocations of the provinces under WAA, 1991.

d. Regulation and control of high flood peaks in the Indus to enable provision of perennial tubewell irrigation to the riverain area in Sindh.

e. Generating a large chunk of hydro-power for meeting the growing demand of agricultural, industrial and domestic consumers through low cost option.

f. Reducing dependence on imported fuels.

g. Creating employment for 30,000 persons during construction and significant numbers after commissioning.

APPREHENSIONS
As part of controversy on Kalabagh Dam, a number of apprehensions/doubts have been expressed both by upper (NWFP) and lower (Sindh) riparian provinces. Most of these are based either on lack of information or hear say. In addition, there have been reservations in the mind of some quarters without any apparent rhyme or reason. Consequently, the Project has been thoroughly reviewed and revised/modified to remove the apprehensions and doubts, which in the pat may have blocked its implementation.





The apprehensions and the factual position, in the light of critical examination/supporting studies, are presented in the following.

Apprehensions of NWFP
i) It is feared that historic flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera town would be aggravated in the event of recurrence of 1929 record flood.

ii) Drainages of surrounding area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be adversely affected by the reservoir thus creating water-logging and salinity.

iii) Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely affected.

iv) Fertile culturable land would be submerged.

v) Large number of people would be displaced.

Answer:

i) a. In the modified design of the project the reservoir conservation level has been lowered by 10 feet from 925 to 915 feet above mean sea level (MSL) thus eliminating the need for construction of any protective dyke near Nowshera. At maximum conservation level of 915 feet, the back-water effect of Kalabagh lake would end about 10 miles downstream of Nowshera (refer Illustration-I). A state-of-art computer based study, backed by physical modeling in Pakistan, has established that recurrence of record flood of 1929 would not affect the water level at Nowshera even after 100 years of sedimentation in reservoir (refer Illustration-II). It may be noted that this completely ignores the effect of Tarbela reservoir, which is now factually providing relief by attenuating flood peaks. It is also notable that flood warring system at Tarbala provides a minimum of 48 hours advance warning before the arrival o large flood peaks.

b. Real causes of flooding at Nowshera and Peshawar Valley upstream entrance of Kabul river at Nowshera into confined channel at the end of Peshawar valley; and backing effect of Attock Gorge downstream through which Indus river has to pass after its confluence with Kabul river (refer illustration I). Before the confluence, Indus river flows through a wide valley of over 8,000 feet and is then forced to pass through 1000 feet wide gorge for 5 miles. This constriction forces the river water to back up thus raising flood levels in Kabul river upto Nowshera. Whereas Kalabagh should not adversely affect flooding in Nowshera and Peshawar Valley above, an upstream dam on Swat river could provide effective assurance against this chronic inherent problem. Consequently, Munda Dam multi-purpose project is being included in NWRDP.

ii) Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are 970,962 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to the maximum conservation level of 915 for Kalabagh (refer Illustration-III). This maximum Kalabagh reservoir level would be maintained only for 3 to 4 weeks during September and October after which it would deplete as water is released for Rabi crops and power generation (refer Illustration-IV). Ultimately it would go down to dead storage level of 825 feet by early June. This operation pattern of reservoir, by no stretch of imagination, could block the drainage and thus cause water-logging or salinity in Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas.

iii). The invert level of main drain of the Mardan SCARP are higher than maximum elevation of 915 feet. Thus, these drains would keep on functioning without any obstruction.

iv) Total culturable land submerged under the reservoir elevation of 915 feet would be 27,500 acres (24,500 acres in Punjab and 3000 acres in NWFP). The submerged irrigated land would be only 3000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP). It may be noted that about 1,000 acres of irrigated land acquired for Mardan SCARP alone.

v) a. The estimated population to be affected by the project would be 83,000 with 48,500 in Punjab and 34,500 in NWFP. A liberal resettlement plan would provide alternate irrigated lands to the affected families. The affected population would be resettled along the reservoir periphery in extended/new model villages with modern facilities of water supply, electricity, roads, dispensaries, school and other civic amenities. The affectees would enjoy and improved environment.

b. Another major incentive provided for the affecters in this case, not previously practiced in Pakistan, would be to fully compensate the frames for the land on the reservoir periphery above normal conservation level of 915 feet that could be flooded once in five years. This land would remain the property of the original owners for cultivation with the only undertaking that they would not claim any damages to crops for occasional flooding.

c. The comprehensive resettlement package proposed for Kalabagh is in fact most innovative and attractive then those previously adopted for Mangla and Tarbala Dams. The basic objective being that “a the end of day”, the affectees should find themselves in a better socio-economic environment.

Apprehensions of Sindh
i) The anxiety that the project would render Sindh into a desert.

ii) There would be no surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir.

iii) High level outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir.

iv) Cultivation in riverain (Sailaba) areas would be adversely affected.

v) Sea water intrusion in Indus estuary would accentuate.

vi) Mangrove forest, which are already threatened, would be further affected adversely.

vii) Fish production and drinking water supply below Kotri would be adversely affected.

Answers:

i) Dams don’t consume any water. Instead these store water during flood season and then make it available on crop demand basis for the remaining dry periods of t years. The real demonstration of this came after full commissioning of Tarbala Dam in 1076. during pre-storage era of 1960-67, average annual canal withdrawals of Sindh were 35.6 MAF. After Tarbala the corresponding figure rose to 44.5 MAF with over 22 percent increase in the Rabi diversions alone increased from 10.7 to 15.2 MAF. It is estimated that after Kalabagh, canal withdrawals of Sindh would further increase. A indicated in Illustration-V, most of this increase would come in regarding desertification of Sindh defies even the basic logic of a storage reservoir.

ii) A. WAA of 1991 has allocated, on the average, about 12 MAF additional supplies to the provinces almost all of which is in Kharif season. On the other hand, factually the surplus water is a available only within 70-100 days flood period. It is estimated that to provided additional allocated water over the year, a storage of about 3.6 MAF would be needed (out of this, 2.2 MAF would be in the early Kharif season of April to July).

iii) Initial studies have indicated that construction of high level outlets at Kalabagh is economically unviable. Notwithstanding this, if any province wants to build, then its share of water would be strictly governed by WAA, 1991.

iv)a An impression is also prevailing that with Kalabagh Dam, riverain areas of Sindh, commonly called “ Sailaba” would got out of production due to control over floods. It can be appreciated from configuration of riverain area (refer Illustration-VI) that “Sailaba’ crops are grown on the land adjacent to main river and the creeks. Though crops are sown on the soil moisture soon after the floods, these need more than one watering to mature. As a result ‘ Sailba’ lands give poor yields. Consequently, frames are generally required provide irrigation facility through shallow tube wells or lift pimps. Prime movers on these tubewells have to be removed during the flood season to avoid damage.

b Sindh has presently 660,000 acres of ‘ Sailaba cultivated area form Guddu Barrage to sea. This area is initially sown due to the moisture provided by flooding with river stage of 300,000 cusecs and above.

c. Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming after Kalabagh, without much detriment to the present cultural practices, while large floods would be effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conductive to installation of permanent tubewells to provide pernnial irrigation facility in riverain areas. Towards this end, a separate scheme is being included in NWRDP.

v)a. The fear that present extent of sea water intrusion in the Indus Delta would be further aggravated by Kalabagh is not substantiated by factual data. Studies indicate that presently the total effect of Indus estuary is only limited to the lower most portion of Delta and gets dissipated below Garho and Chowgazo gagues heights at Garho are completely insensitive to Indus discharges of upto 700,000 cusees (refer III ustration-VIII). Therefore, the sea water intrusion, which seems to be at its maximum even now, is unlikely to be aggravated further by Kalabagh Dam.

b Another apprehension is that sea water intrusion into existing aquifer system would cause serious quality deterioration. The groundwater contained in the aquifer is effectively saline as far north as Hyderabad. Therefore, intrusion of sea water along shore line of Delta is of little consequence. This is further supported by the the fact that there is southward oriented groundwater gradient throughout this aquifer. Considering the very low transmissivities of the aquifer in Delta region, upward sea water intrusion can be almost ruled out.

vi)a. Out of the total 1.53 million acres(MA) tidally inundated historic Indus Delta, Mangrove forest cover an area of almost 0.32 MA In this forest, spreading from Karachi in the west to Rann of Kutch in the east, 95% of the population now consist of a salt tolerant variety.

b. Extent of the active delta area(as distinct from the historic delta area described above) is about 294,000 acres. Out of this, the mangroves cover only 7,400 acres or 2.5% of the area. Most of the remaining area is in form of mud-flats. The reason for this area being too small could be a combination of factors. Recently, NED University of Engineering and Technology has carried out a study titled “ What Realy Threatens us and Our Mangroves” This brings out that reduction in mangroves in essentially due to frequency of tidal inundation being too small instead of fresh water reduction caused by upstream abstractions, which started with Sukkur Barrage in 1932. Other major causes are uncontrolled overgrazing and cutting due to extreme population pressure of Karachi.

c. Therefore, in order to revive the mangroves, real need is for replanting salt tolerant varieties with provision for controlled doses of fresh water. Obviously, this possibility would be much enhanced with an upstream storage facility like Kalabagh.

vii)a. A recent study has shown that there is no clear evidence to suggest that fisheries stocks in the river reach below Kotri have declined due to progressive reduction in the surface water supplies. On the other hand, fish production has been constantly increasing as indicated by statistical data. As such, Kalabagh Dam is unlikely to have any adverse effect on fish production in the area.

b. In the riverain area downstream to Kotri Barrage, groundwater is predominantly saline or brackish and as such unsuitable for either irrigation water supply. After Kalabagh, winter supply in the river would improve thus assuring more drinking water.

PROJECT BENEFITS
Kalabagh would store surplus water in the flood season and make it available for controlled utilization during the low flow season. This water would thus be used for sowing and final maturing of the Kharif crops and entire Rabi crops.

Irrigation oriented operation of the project gives the highest overall economic return. Thus the full live storage of 6.1MAF would be available for guaranteeing assured irrigation supplies throughout the year including replacement of the storage loss on the three existing reservoirs.

Power
Kalabagh wit its installed capacity of 2400 MW (ultimate 3600 MW) would add to the system a very large chunk of cheap hydro-power. In an average year, 11413 million kilowatts hours (MKWh’s) of electricity would be generated at Kalabagh. Further, as a result of conjunctive operation an additional 336 million MKWh’s and upto 600 megawatts (MW) of additional peak power would be generated at Tarbela. To put these figures in perspective, if Kalabagh was in position today, there would have been no load-shedding in Pakistan.

The energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20 million of oil per year.

Flood Alleviation
Kalabagh would reduce the frequency and severity of flooding along the Indus particularly between the dam site an Indus/Punjab confluence, 300 miles downstream.

For the riverain areas lower down in Sindh, it would enable conversation of the existing ‘Sailaba’ areas to the year round tubewell irrigation.

Overall Benefits
On a conservation basis, the overall direct benefits of Kalabagh Dam would be around Rs. 25 billion per annum. Thus the investment cost of project would be repaid within a very short period of 9-10 years.

CONSEQUENCES OF NOT BUILDING KALABAGH DAM

i) National food security would be jeopardized, thus subjecting the economy to additional burden of importing food grains.

ii) Loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoir due to sedimentation would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies causing serious dropeven in existing agriculture production.

iii) For implementation of water Apportionment Accord 1991, a new storage project like Kalabagh is essential. In its absence it would give rise to bitter inter-provincial disputes and recriminations particularly in a dry water year. Dispute between Punjab and Sindh on shortage of about 0.2 MAF water during Rabi maturing/Kharig sowing 1993-94 should eye-opener. It may be worth mentioning that Rabi 1993-94 had a normal river inflow pattern.

http://www.pakissan.com/english/watercrisis/kalabagh.dam.shtml

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Aziz Narejo,
You have articulated several good points about the stupidity of constructing this dam. Unfortunately, in Pakitan, or anywhere else, where does a 600 lb gorilla sit? The answer is anywhere it wants to. Punjab gets whatever Punjab wants - to the detriment of the rest of Pakistan. When will these Punjabis realize that they have ruined Pakistan from its inception and they are close to putting the final nails in the poor coffin. They pissed off the Bengalis, bomed the Baluchis, killed Pathans, ruined the Sindhis, and have totally alienated the Mohajirs - not to mention what they have done to the Kashmiris and the poor Biharis, stranded in BD. I say, split Punjab into at least three or four smaller provinces and the problem will be solved. That is what India did to E. Punjab, and it worked. Good luck.

#18 by Romair

[Similarly, Baluchistan needs to be divided into more parts. It constitutes one-third to half of Pakistan`s landmass. And much of its natural resources. Yet it is the control of a tiny group of tribal leaders, who have never allowed it to develop. Which is one of the reasons Baluchistan may be the most backward area in the world.]

This is a lame argument. If after almost 6 decades, the Army that controls every aspect of Pakistani life can allow a group of Sardars to hold Baluchistan hostage, it has no one but itself to blame.

#22 by labyrinth1

[Phew, look at the liberal class - they are now trying to bloody break Balochistan and Sind into pieces now - they did talked about breaking Punjab as well ; who are they ? break this break that - thats all you guys could talk about !]

What else can expected from the progeny of the TNT-ists?

Baglihar vs. Kalabagh Dam:
Why is one `haraam` and other a `halaal` dam?

After ‘waffling and wavering for several years’ (as reported by a newspaper today), Pakistan has finally requested the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert to settle its Baglihar dam dispute with India.

It may be recalled that the WB had brokered the 1960 water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan and also stands as its guarantor. The treaty gives both the countries the third party option in case of a deadlock over any issue. Article IX of the treaty provides for settling disputes through neutral expert or arbitration if they cannot be resolved between the two Indus water commissioners.

Main Pakistani objections to the Baglihar Dam revolve around the theme that the project as designed would manipulate flow of water to Pakistan`s disadvantage. “The project can lead to acute water shortages in Pakistan due to suspension of supplies for up to 28 consecutive days during certain months”, Pakistani experts say. They fear that the dam may deprive Pakistan of up to 7,000 cusecs of water per day.

Now the people of Sindh, the lower riparian province of Pakistan have similar objections against Kalabagh Dam or any other mega dam upstream. The NWFP has its own objections against the proposed Kalabagh Dam. Why is it that the governments of Punjab and Pakistan turn a blind eye to their concerns? If they object to Baglihar on similar grounds, how can they go ahead with KB or any other dam of their own? Why can’t they abide by their own argument? Why this duplicity and hypocrisy? Why the double standards?

I think it is time that the experts in water and legal matters sympathetic to the point of view of Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan prepare their own case and request the World Bank to make them a party in the dispute.

Under the current thought, mega dams are not only ecological disasters, but are also not very efficient in meeting their objetives.

As regards the World Bank, it will have its own motivations for providing funding for different projects.

The major issue with Kalanbagh dam is that it will displace a lot of people up stream of the Indus and will render a lot of agricultural land uncultivable downstream. The question here is that should the country use a lot of its resources to simply transfer economic gains from Sindh and NWFP to the Punjab?

If Pakistan is for all Pakistanis, then the viewpoint of three out of four provinces should be given due consideration.

``Infeasibility of the Kalabagh Dam``

Here is what former IRSA Chairman, Engnr Fatehullah Khan (I don`t think he is from Sindh. He could be from the NWFP) says in another article on the life and thus the infeasibility of the Kalabagh Dam in an article in daily Dawn on November 1, 2004:


Infeasibility of the Kalabagh Dam

``For further proof of its infeasibility, refer to the KBD`s project report June 1988, page 3.9 para 3.31, which states: -

``Chas T. Main etc considered special low-level sluices to achieve very low drawdown. In that case power generation must be discontinued. Thus economic Penalty is large``. The above excerpts indicate that the KBD is neither beneficial for irrigation nor for power generation. It also shows that Kalabagh is not the suitable site for a storage dam as prefixed by WAPDA in the TOR for the consultants. It may be investigated for a barrage.

Implications: Refer to the KBD main report page 4.11 para 4.55 which emphasizes that heavy silting will take place in the 3.5 maf Attock portion of the KBD reservoir against the heavy inflow of about 90 maf of water. As KBD reservoir has the poorest CI ratio in the world, therefore it will rapidly silt up as Tarbela is fast losing its silt trap efficiency after performing 30 years of service.

The muddy Kabul River is also contributing about 110 million tons of silt equal to 0.1 maf annually in addition to 0.2 maf of silt flow from Tarbela Reservoir. Besides all above, the lurking danger of the liquefaction of 200 feet high and about 60 Km long silt island in Tarbela Reservoir would be a potential catastrophe for a down stream storage dam.

The selection and fixation of reservoir site by Wapda with the poorest CI ratio is a great mistake, as it will rapidly silt up. This is why the Kalabagh consultants have shown great concern of rapid silting in the main project report on page 3.5 para 3.17, page 4.12 para 4.57.and page 3.9 para 3.31. Few relevant excerpts are quoted below: -

I. ``Upstream of Attock the flood level are sensitive to the amount of sediment so that flood risk will increase with time``.

ii. ``The future distribution of sediment can be predicted in general terms only and local behaviour will depend on actual sediment inflows, reservoir operation and local flow pattern``.

iii. ``No immediate solution for sediment management seems to be practically viable``.

iv. ``The high sediment load carried by the Indus at Kalabagh has an important bearing on the design of Kalabagh Dam and on the operation rules of the reservoir.``

v. ``In the long run the generation of power will be on run-of-river``.

The above excerpts show that the dam is a very short lived project due to rapid silting like the original Sanmenxia Dam in China that was built with mid-level sluicing design and failed with in two years of its construction due to rapid silting and backwater flooding....``

can engineer type readers can give estimate of cost for dam and pipe lines? That will be good. With fee from Iran of $ 700 million dollars per year we can almost work for next 25 years on mega projects every year and all money should be spent on Mega infrastructure project. Can any any body tell how much cost of maintainance and protection pre year? assuming 100 million dollars per year still 700-100= 600 million dollars. I think if used only for mega projects we can become like economy say ireland or turkey. Hope this money is not squandered on poors who breed like rats and make more poor. thanks

Dear participants in this discussion,

Don’t listen to the one ‘taken to color his sentiments’ that lead ‘to confrontation’, listen to the world famous author and see what he says about mega dams.

It is Patrick McCully, the Executive Director of the International Rivers Network. He has written some books on the subject and is also an Associate Editor of ‘The Ecologist’. The following passage is from his book ‘Silenced Rivers’ (page 24):

“A growing number of academic and activist researchers, however, have been building up an impressive corpus of data showing the extensive damage which dams and their associated irrigation schemes cause to watersheds, cultures and national economies. Furthermore the evidence is steadily mounting to show how dams have not fulfilled the promises made for them. Dams invariably cost much more than claimed, diverting investments from more beneficial uses. Reservoirs tend to fill with silt long before predicted and hydro plants to supply much less electricity than promised. Irrigation schemes are badly managed, destroy soils, bankrupt small farmers and turn lands used to feed local people over to the production of crops for export. Dams assist the powerful and wealthy to enclose the common land, water and forests of the politically weak. By misleading people into thinking that they cab control huge floods, dams encourage settlements on flood plains, turning damaging floods into devastating ones.”

#29 by HP


World Bank pushing the dam?


I don’t know where learned HP gets this idea. I have read statements by Pakistani Water and Power Minister and other officials saying that the government has not yet approached any financial institution for assistance to build KB Dam.

WB has financed several mega dams but after the World Commission on Dams’ report criticizing the utility of mega dams and the widespread opposition against such projects, it has pulled back from several. WB quit its support to India’s Sardar Sarovar Dam in 1993 in the face of huge movement against the dam. Two years later, the bank was pressured into pulling out of the controversial Arun III Dam in Nepal accepting the main arguments of its opponents.

I have seen a letter on e-groups by WB Country Director in Pakistan saying that the bank has not decided to finance the KB Dam and that no decision would be taken without listening to the stake-holders.


KB Dam’s life:


Sir, I don’t say it. The Indus River System River Authority, IRSA, the supreme official body on water in Pakistan rejected the Kalabagh Dam through its letter dated October 22, 1996 on the basis that: a) The Dam will be silted rather quickly. b) Its short life: 22 - 30 years. c) Poor performance. d) Comparatively lower electric generation capability.

Here is what an expert on the issue and former IRSA Chairman, Engnr. Fatehullah Khan says on the subject in an article in daily Dawn dated 13th December, 2004:

“The most serious and dangerous is the blockage of the sub-surface drainage flow from the two valleys towards the only outlet through Attock gorge. The area up stream of the Attock gorge is subjected to heavy silting. According to the KBD consultants this area is most sensitive to silting.

It will receive 0.1 maf silt annually from Kabul River and 0.2 maf from the Indus River. The consultants have estimated 540 million tons of silt flow annually at Attock.

This will hardly give a life span of about 15 to 20 years in depleting order for the 3.5 maf Attock portion of the KBD reservoir….”


HP says:


“Every Dam would have silt issue and regular maintenance should take care of that. I don’t see that to be a reason to shelve this project.”

Please tell it to WAPDA. Why don’t they ‘regularly maintain’ the Tarbela and Mangla dams and ‘take care’ of the silt problem. Why do they argue to build another dam citing the silt problem?

Have you forgot about the ‘great’ Warsak Dam? How soon it was silted and rendered useless? Do you have any idea?


Everybody supports the KB Dam except Sindhis:


This could be a candidate for the misstatement of the year!

Not once but it has been several times (7 times according to one count) that the PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLIES of three out of four federating units have UNANIMOUSLY passed resolutions against the construction of the Kalabagh Dam. And it happened during various governments so you can’t taint it as opinion of a certain group.

Also that one is aware of the strong opposition to KB Dam in the NWFP. How can one say that everybody supports KB Dam except Sindh? Who has forgot the great rallies of 90s when the Pukhtoons gathered at Attock and Sindhis and Balochs at Kamoo Shaheed forcing the NS government to back track on the issue?

One aspect of building dam is good. That is employment to people in construction is important. Also this will jobs for people for years and out cement factories will have lots of work. Due to that feels Iran Pakistan pipe line as well as Turkamen - pakistan and Quartar-Pak all three pipe lines be built and no need to request india. We can enjoy sweet benefits of these pipe lines and abudance of energy in pakistan. This can give boost to our industry. Once Iran and and others built pipeline we should not allow pipeline to extend to India till india govt become flexible and accept arbitaration. Also discourage profit makers to cry for trade with India. If india wants they can purchase value added gas only . No real gas to India. Sell enegy and fertilizers made at good profit. Also tell india if dam things do not stop on pakistani rivers in India , cut travelling of airmachine on pakistani territory. Also india it getting dollars from pakistanies by selling products by smuggling many things. If wall energy lines start pumping gas and new cfertilizer plants, cement plants, heroic technologies ( war hardwere) can change pakistan for ever. On reasonlly priced gas we can become work shop of middle eastern and north african countries. Unless we have huge mega peojects we can not improve. ( port is shining example how things better. Thar coal can produce electricity in too much excess and we can sell value added gasproducts and electricity. When they become dependant one just cut say tech problem or jehidis burst from pipe lines ans they talk about Kashmir problem at that time, Indians will be elastic as otherwise ruined economy based on pakistani controlled power angd gas value added products. At high level inquiry should be made how and why indian RAW played part on attack on gas fields. I think those our friends want to spread bad reputation that gas piple line is braeking etc. Let us hope time of mega projects arrive and little projects do not waste talent and energy. May K B dam be built sooner for industrial revival. Good feb 05. good luck

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HisExcellency #23:`` You are describing the long-term result of bifurcating Punjab into 3 smaller provinces. In the short-term (5-10 years), however the three provinces (Potohar, Punjab and Seraikistan) will continue to vote collectively and identically on most issues.``

This may prove to be correct, or it may not prove to be correct. However, what other option is there? The provinces have to be broken up in some manner. Might as well start now. Another solution would be to break all of Pakistan into district size provinces.

I really doubt too many people in smaller provinces will complain if Punjab is broken up. I think they are crying out for it. Why would they complain? Punjabis, inside Punjab are not a uniform group. There are actually Saraiki province small scale movements going on. Why would Potoharis feel closer to Lahoris than to NWFP. The main profession in Potohar is the military. And in that they have far more in common with district Kohat than with any Punjabi district. And why would Saraikis feel closer to Lahoris than to Sindhis? Just because they happen to be geographically in one province currently? That is not enough of a reason.

In the end, politics is local. People`s loyalties are to their neighborhood and their city. Potoharis and Sarakis etc. will only look for their own interests. People in Multan would be far more concerned about Multan than about Gujranwala.

Similarly in Baluchistan, you have a few tribal leaders controlling half of Pakistan. And all of Baluchistan. If the coast is turned into a Mekran province, it may want to develop independently of Quetta. I am sure the people of Gwadar would want a big town there. Why should Bugti sitting up north or Mazari sitting in Karachi be allowed to control what they want.

The end aim should be to divide everything into equal manageable units. And not have one group completely dominate all others in geographical or populational size. Punjab has a population of 70 to 80 million. Canada has a population 40% of that and has 10 provinces and three territories. Punjab itself could be divided into 15 provinces, if required. How many provinces did India have in 47? How many does it have now?

#25 by anarejo

Narejo,

The World Bank has been pushing the Dam for the Last 25 years and they are fronting the money for it. If this dam had a lifespan of only 20 years, they would not have supported it for such a long time. I doubt that the WB engineering staff is so incompetent that they would not see some thing like that.
Every Dam would have silt issue and regular maintenance should take care of that. I don’t see that to be a reason to shelve this project.

I also looked thru the links that you provided.
First let me state this clearly. SANA and its leaders like Iqbal Tareen, Zahid Makhdoom and Mehar Shah still live in 30 years old politics. The dynamics and the politics in Sindh have changed so much that I am not willing to invest too much capital with these Guys. I did meet Mehar Shah in Karachi about 2-3 years ago. He was trying to break into Sindhi politics but he is so far off that there is nothing for him there. I am sure he is back in the US now.
Getting back to the issue. None of the article that you provided links to showed any economic loss to Sindh due to KB DAM. Barring their unsubstantiated stories about palla Machi. Yes! I enjoyed Palla at Jamshoro and Kotri but it is not the single most important thing in Sindhi life. If they have lost 4500 tons already, another loss of 500 tons would not mean much. In history many species have disappeared due to human progress and we can mourn the loss of palla but it is not enough to work against the progress.

The coal in Thar- if it was so hot many companies would have lined up to mine that, but only Chinese are working there and they are still doing initial estimation and explorations.
Power needs are not going to diminish; they are going to increase in the coming years and KB Dam is not going to fulfill all of them. So if in future Thar coal can be used for Power generation that would be good, but stopping KB based on some assumptions has no merit whatsoever.

Most of the people that would suffer would be from Punjab and NWFP and they wanna go with the project and Sindhi nationalist opposition to the Dam is just empty politicking not much substance to it.
Again, I repeat that Sindh would benefit from constant supply of water instead of relying on Barani areas for bulk of its products.

Paucity of water is an important reason to create storage for bad times not otherwise.

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