Waiting Upon the Prime Miniterial Burp

Lahori perception before the last elections: Nawaz Sharif the Businessman
would be a prime minister who would be good for the economy because he
belongs to an industrial house. If the economy does well he'll do well
was
the desperate logic. But the economy, bad during Benazir's time, has been
worsening steadily since February 1997 when Nawaz Sharif was elected
prime
minister.


Now it is commonly believed the PM's industrial house has defaulted on
its
bank loans and he has paid a non-credible amount of personal income tax.

Not paying crediors and the tax man are the two ills the state daily
announces it will cure.

So how is a Lahori supposed to take the news that Vajpayee's visit is
the
beginning of a relationship, as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif phrases it,
between India and Pakistan where we will compete in the economy and
development?


Could this be the exceptional promise?


Before the elections of Feb '97 Nawaz Sharif was the first ever prime
ministerial candidate to announce an intention to make peace with India.
Since he is the proud owner of a heavier mandate than the Muslim League
received in 1946, and has bullied all the institutions of the state,
Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif believes he can do what ever he wants. If he can
sack
a chief of army staff, maneuver a chief justice out of office, and can
take
on Pakistan's most resilient press family then he believes he can take on
Islamabad and make a new relationship with India.


No doubt there is American pressure on the Pakistani establishment to
talk
to their Indian counterparts. The World Bank and IMF give prescription
after adamant prescription for the sick economy, and have also exhorted
us
to improve trade with India.


But it is much more interesting to consider Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's
own attitude towards India as opposed to an American insisted attitude.

Perhaps the Businessman Prime Minister is thinking what the director
research of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce has said.


Pakistan imported an estimated $1.5 billion of illegal imports from India
in the fiscal year to June 1998. Legal imports were $155 million. Shows
the
vast scope for trade expansion, said the director in The News on the eve
of
Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to Lahore. He goes on to say: "Some
estimate Pakistan can get machinery, iron ore, wheat and some other items
25 to 40 per cent cheaper from India than from other countries. India
also
offers a vast market for our exports such as cotton yarn, textile
fabrics,
leather products, surgical instruments, sports goods and sugar."


But the Lahori has experience of the prime minister's appetite. Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif wants to do business with India, his son is selling
sugar to India. But nobody is sure if he wants anyone else in Pakistan to
do business with India.

President Clinton also has an appetite, we in Lahore are aware of that.
But
we also saw a political process at work. The press had something to say
on
it, the polls, the Congress and the Senate. In Lahore we are expecting to
hear a burp.