Preview of the Semi Finals of the 1999 Cricket World Cup

As predicted, the three best teams in the world cup have made it to the semis. Pakistan, Australia and South Africa were the tournament favorites and have lived up to their billing. The fourth team, which I had expected to be West Indies, is New Zealand. It is fitting that the best pool of the tournament dished out three teams. Though South Africa might have claims to be the best team of the tournament, they were in the inferior pool. This was proved by the tight miracle win against Pakistan and the loss to Australia. The format of this world cup has worked well in that the best teams of the tournament have come to the final four. However, the format did allow for Zimbabwe to have almost made it through over Australia though they obviously did not deserve it. Australia has made it the hard way. Let us have a look at the two semi finals and weigh the chances of the various teams.

The first semi final is between Pakistan and New Zealand. They have played once before and Pakistan won that game by 62 runs. Pakistan has the decided edge but an upset is on the cards. New Zealand were beaten by Pakistan at their home in the 1992 semi finals. They will remember that. Some of the current players were on that team too. They lost a match they had almost won and dominated most of the way. They would like to avenge that defeat. New Zealand is coming off a pressure win against India. They dominated Zimbabwe in a game that was washed out. Their only loss in the Super Six tournament was to South Africa. They got drubbed in that match much like Pakistan beat them but they have responded well to those losses. It is quite surprising that they might be the best team in chasing along with Australia. They successfully chased against Australia in a pool game and then against India. The anchor in both those games and in a game against Scotland where they needed quick runs was Roger Twose. He ranks himself as the second best left handed player in the world as a poster outside his room at his county read. They also boast of the best bowler in the tournament in Geoff Allot, who has been magnificent. The left armer has a free flowing action and keeps his head still when he delivers. He is accurate and swings the ball as well. His natural ball angles across the right hander but he brings the ball in as well. He is in the Wasim Akram mould as he bowls really well to left handers as well. He is pretty nippy and will be key to Kiwi success. I have always ranked Chris Cairns very high on the all rounder list. I especially like his batting as he is very correct and a hard hitter of the ball. His cameos in the middle help the Kiwis a lot and he needs to perform at his best to give his side a chance to win. New Zealand is a good side over all as they have depth in batting and have all rounders that bowl doodlers which are effective in overcast conditions. However, since the weather is becoming hot and dry in England they might be a liability. Their top order has not clicked and that remains a problem for them. But they are bound to click some time and Astle, McMillan and Horne will look for big innings in the semis. If the Kiwis can win the toss and put about 225 on the board batting first, they will have a good chance of winning this game.

Pakistan has been the most unpredictable side in the tournament. Quite like the Knicks in US basketball, they need some adversity to perform at their best. They squandered the mental advantage they had after crushing performances at the start of the tournament by losing to Bangladesh and then to India in games they only needed to concentrate in to win. They played a cracker of a game against South Africa and were unlucky to lose that one. Pakistan’s best batsman in this tournament has been Yousuf Youhana and he is hurt and will not play the semis. That is a big blow but it does make for an easier selection process for this game. The team that crushed Zimbabwe will probably be kept for this game. Wasti's knock will earn him a place in the semis. He will be the one to watch since his inexperience might show. I remember Mansoor Akhter running out the in-form Ramiz Raja in the semifinal at Lahore in 1987. Mansoor was inexperienced in big games and it showed. Ramiz was in great form at the time and was needed chasing a big total. Saeed will have to calm him down and avoid any silly run outs as he has hit his stride. His century against Zimbabwe signals the end of a long drought. He will look to build on that since he has never done well or won Pakistan world cup games. He was injured in the successful 1992 world cup campaign. Ijaz and Inzamam will follow this pair and Ijaz needs some runs. Inzi has been playing well of late but loses his wicket to silly run outs that may or may not be of his own doing. The media has vilified this player throughout this tournament and my guess is that he might repeat his match-winning role in the 1992 semi finals. Afridi at number 5 is fine as he can hit or defend depending on the situation. Actually, if wickets are lost early Azhar can be promoted over Shahid. Shahid should also be considered to open if they are chasing a huge total on a good wicket. That is how he should have always been used. A middle-order player who can pinch-hit. The bowling looks great with variety and speed. Saqlain's welcome return to form is a good omen. And Azhar and Razzaq's consistency will mean that my favorite Waqar will remain out of the side. It is a shame really, as this guy deserves to win a world cup. He was injured when Pakistan won in 1992. Shoaib should concentrate on getting early wickets and not wasting his speed. He has done that well so far. Pakistan has a great chance to get to the final but it would take a very disciplined performance against the determined Kiwis.

The second game of the semis is the marquee game. A rematch of the absolute humdinger on Sunday. Australia has been great with five consecutive wins. They have made it to the semifinal stage the hard way. They came into the Super Six stage without a point and needed to win all three and did that. Their captain led the way with a Miandad-like 120 not out in the last game. Actually, the similarities to that Pak India Australasia cup final are uncanny. The Australians have been firing on all cylinders with their big guns blazing. McGrath has come back into the tournament with a bang. Warne has been good lately. Mark Waugh and Ponting have been good at the top of the order and Bevan has been his usual self in the lower order. The anchor has been Steve Waugh. He has been the rock in these pressure games. They have a weakness though and that is the their support bowling. Moody, Reiffel, Bevan, Steve etc. have not been that good in the support role and they miss the fifth bowler. That might be their undoing if they do lose. They are on an emotional high at the time with 5 straight wins. However, this is not a good thing as they might be drained in the next game or the game after if they make it there. I have seen in sports that the team that actually wins it all needs to have an easy road at some stage of their campaign. However, since I am a Knicks fan I would want this theory not to come true in the NBA finals. I do feel that Australia is a little spent emotionally although they are playing the best cricket of all the teams in the semis.

South Africa in my mind was the best team in the tournament and had the best chance to win the cup. I still stand by my claim. It will take a whale of a game by the opposition to win against them at this stage of the tournament. I think they deserve to atleast make it past the semi stage this time. They were robbed by rain in 1992 and by Lara in 1996. They are hopping mad after their defeat to Australia in a game that they had all but wrapped up. The top of the order has started to click with Gibbs and Kirsten back in form. The middle order has always looked good with Cronje and the cameos by Rhodes. The lower order with Pollock and Klusener is always dangerous. Their bowling is clinical without being exceptional like Pakistan's. If they have a chink in the armor it is big match temperament. They failed against Australia once and I do not think they will fail again. I think it will all boil down to the nerve of Cronje and I will never bet against that gentleman, as he is ice. He will have his team all revved up to go. Kallis will come back in the side after missing the last game. Klusener might not follow up his pre-semis heroics but he has done his job to get them to a stage where they can win it all. It is upto their big guns in Donald, Kirsten and Cronje to deliver the goods.

Whoever makes it to the finals, it will be a great matchup apart from the South Africa Vs New Zealand one. A New Zealand Vs Australia game will bring to the fore a rivalry on the par of the Ashes and a little less than the Pak India clashes. An Australia Vs Pakistan final will see Australia trying to avenge a 10 run loss earlier in the tournament with Pakistan wanting to lessen the pain of losing the 1987 semi at home in Lahore. A Pakistan Vs South Africa will be the best game possible as the teams played a cracker earlier. Pakistan lost their 13th straight and will want to break that streak. South Africa has the stigma of not winning the big one on their backs, which they would like to shed.